Senate Betting Odds: Democrats Favored To Win

As the cool autumn air wisps across the United States and trees’ leaves change color from rich greens to earthy yellows and oranges, so too have the assumed colors of political reform in Washington. Just a few months ago, a red wave at the midterms was all but a certainty, but just like those beloved canopies of fall foliage, 2022 U.S. Senate betting odds have turned the incoming surf purple.

2022 U.S. Senate Betting Odds

When we last checked in on Senate betting odds back in late June, the Democratic party faced a grim future. However, things are so tight right now, online sportsbook Sportsbook actually pulled 2022 Senate odds off its board, while fellow operator Sportsbook has flipped the proverbial script in favor of the left side of the aisle.

Just for clarity, Sportsbook’s Republican odds to win the Senate majority were -295 in June, while the Democrats’ odds were +215. Those odds carried implied probabilities of nearly 75 percent and 31.8 percent respectively of winning the Senate.

As of September 28, Sportsbook’s latest odds have Democrats favored to win the Senate at -250 and Republicans heavy underdogs at +170.

Odds as of Sept. 28 at Sportsbook

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Why Are The Democrats Now Favored In the Senate Betting Odds?

Remember, the Senate is currently split 50-50 with the two Independents typically voting along Democratic lines and the tiebreaker going to Vice-President Kamala Harris. While Democratic Senator Joe Manchin and Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema embrace moderate stances and have stonewalled their party’s progressive agenda, the thought is this chamber of congress is 50-50.

The reason behind this summer’s blue rally in the Senate can be tracked back to three events:

Roe vs Wade Overturned

Contrary to popular belief and/or what you’ve read on social media platforms, the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and hand the abortion issue back to the states wasn’t so much a Democratic vs Republican talking point as it was a women’s rights one.

Odds are strong that once this ruling became final, it energized female voters on the left, middle and, yes, even the right side of the aisle. Not everything in politics is black and white and this controversial gray area most likely helped Democrats in the polls.

Biden’s Pro-Climate Budget Passing

Back in late June and early July, President Joe Biden’s approval rating sank below 40 percent. In mid-August, Biden signed the $740-billion Inflation Reduction Act, which is a spending bill that helps lower the cost of prescription drugs, provides tax credits for electric vehicle purchases, invests hundreds of billions of dollars in energy and climate reform and also reduced the deficit by $1.5 trillion.

Trump’s Bad Press & First-Time Candidates

Several Republican Senate primary winners are first-time candidates and have struggled on the campaign trail. Even endorsements from former president Donald Trump have failed to improve their status after some negative press from the January 6 Committee’s investigation and spotlight placed on Trump’s role in the Capitol Hill siege. He also lost some luster following the FBI’s raid on his Mar-a-Lago estate where he allegedly kept confidential and top-secret documents on site.

All of this, plus Democratic fundraising leaving coffers chock full of cash, have negatively impacted Republicans’ odds of winning the 2022 Senate this November.

Tightest Senate Races

After 2016’s pollster apocalypse, which assumed Hillary Clinton was all but a lock to become the 45th President of the United States only to watch Donald Trump waltz on stage in the wee hours of November 9 as the country’s next Commander-in-Chief, many are hesitant to place much stock in data polling numbers. On the other hand, it’s the primary source to gauge the pulse of – and this is important to underscore – a sliver of the American public.

Perry Bacon Jr. of the Washington Post recently penned an op-ed titled “Polls are useful. They just can’t predict elections in swing states.”

Great insight.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s Senate models, the script flipped on July 26 when Democrats’ odds of controlling the Senate caught up and passed Republicans’. They haven’t relinquished the polling advantage since.

The three tightest Senate elections will occur in Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin. As of September 25, FiveThirtyEight models handed the slightest of advantages to Democratic incumbent nominees Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada.

Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson boasts just a 0.1 percentage point lead over Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, but due to Biden’s past success in the state, Johnson vs Barnes will come down to the wire.

Despite FiveThirtyEight’s polling, all three Republican nominees enjoy minus-money odds at Sportsbook. Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker are actually deadlocked at -120 odds each.