Senate Betting Odds: Republicans Favored To Win

Oh, what memorable moments we’ve had in the midterm election speeches by sitting presidents that saw the opposition flourish and take over the House and Senate.

In 2006, George W. Bush called the midterms “a thumping,” while four years later, Barack Obama suggested that the Democrats took a “shellacking.” Could we be hearing Joe Biden give a similar speech in the 2022 midterm elections? The U.S. Senate betting odds suggest we might.

2022 U.S. Senate Betting Odds

Online sportsbook Bovada has released the 2022 U.S. Senate betting odds and has set the Republican party as the -275 chalk and the Democratic party as the +200 underdog. This means you would have to bet $275 to profit $100 with a Republican Senate while a $100 bet for the Democrats to win the Senate would net you $200.

Odds as of November 23 at Bovada

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Our sports betting calculator tells us that the Republicans’ odds to win the U.S. Senate in 2022 translate to an implied win probability of 73.33 percent, whereas the Democratic odds represent an implied win probability of 33.33 percent.

If you’re a political junky and have a lean for which party will win the Senate, but have never bet before, see our How to Bet Politics page for all the necessary information. Additionally, you can check out our sportsbook review page to see where to bet on politics.

Why Are The Republicans Favored In the Senate Betting Odds?

Currently, the 100 Senate members – two from all 50 states – are split with 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and two Independents caucusing with the Democrats, and, of course, the president of the Senate is Vice-President Kamala Harris.

There may be a red wave coming in the 2022 midterms based on early signs of disapproval of the Biden administration. The Virginia gubernatorial election recently went in favor of the Republicans, an ominous sign for the Democrats, who won the state by 10 points in the 2020 election.

As well, not only are the Republicans favored in the odds to win the Senate but they’re also favored to win the House of Representatives and Donald Trump is the favorite in the 2024 election odds – a shellacking in the making.

A State To Keep An Eye On

Based on the information above, it is clear that the Republican party would only need to pick up one seat to upset the balance and be in power. This spot could come down south, where surely the Georgia Senate betting odds will be very tight.

In the general 2020 U.S. election, a run-off election was needed two months later to determine the Georgian senators, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. Warnock defeated incumbent Kelly Loeffler by less than 100,000 votes and a percentage of 51-49, while Ossoff beat incumbent David Perdue by 55,000 votes and a percentage of 50.6-49.4. This marked the first time in over 15 years that the state had Democratic senators.

Those victories were by the smallest of margins and with growing frustration over the current administration and questions surrounding the mental and physical health of President Biden, Georgia, along with other states, could swing the Senate back to the Republican party.