Can Anyone Catch Kane in the Golden Boot Race?

Despite failing to score in England’s quarterfinal victory over Sweden, Harry Kane’s odds of winning the World Cup Golden Boot actually increased from -350 to -700.

The reason for that being that many of the players who were chasing Kane were just axed from the tournament and no man managed to score – and advance – in the quarters who was within three goals of Harry.

His immediate competition, Romelu Lukaku, was held off the scoresheet against Brazil but with two matches left to bend the twine and the tiebreakers falling his way, the Belgian Beast is not out of the race at +1000 ( Bovada).

According to the rules, if two players are tied on goals at the end of the tournament, the trophy goes to the man who hasn’t scored a penalty. Right now, Lukaku would get a checkmark there with Harry seeing three of his goals come from the spot. If Lukaku did happen to score a penalty in his next two matches and he somehow finished level with the Tottenham man, the winner would be decided by which player had more assists and the Belgian No. 9 currently has the edge there as well with one assist compared to Harry’s zero.

After Harry and Romelu, the odds are slim. Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann of France are the only other men with a realistic shot at the hardware but you’re really reaching if you’re betting on anyone other than Kane or Lukaku unless someone channels their inner Geoff Hurst and scores a hat trick in the final like the Englishman did in 1966.

For the full list of updated Golden Boot odds, head over to Bovada and click the World Cup Futures tab. 

Odds as of July 10 at  Bovada

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Harry Kane’s sixth goal of the World Cup turned out not to be the winner in England’s Round of 16 match but it could very well be the goal that wins him the Golden Boot.

Now at -350 on Bovada’s odds to be top goalscorer at the tournament, Kane holds a two-goal lead over Romelu Lukaku after depositing yet another penalty in the Three Lions’ victory over Colombia and the Tottenham man will have a good chance to add to his tally against Sweden in the quarterfinals.

At this point, it’s basically academic. Belgium faces a tough road to the final and their frontman looked a little off against Japan. Brazil will not be an easy team to break down and Lukaku seems to bag the majority of his goals against lesser teams.

The best value remaining on the list has to be Edinson Cavani at +4000. If the Uruguayan can heal up before Friday’s quarterfinal against France, he’ll be frequently targeted with Les Bleus looking a little leaky at the back end. Uruguay defends as good as any team remaining so they’ve got a serious shot to play the maximum number of games at this tournament to give Cavani ample goal-scoring opportunities.

For the full list of updated Golden Boot odds, head over to Bovada and click the World Cup Futures tab. 

Odds as of July 3 at  Bovada

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Harry Kane finished World Cup group play with five goals to lead the pack in the race to win the Golden Boot and he’s the +175 favorite to finish the tournament in first. England’s star striker is, however, being stalked closely by the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and the chase for the hardware is far from complete.

Catch me if you Kane

Both at +450 in the odds at Bovada, Ronaldo and Romelu Lukaku are the most likely candidates to catch Harry with four goals each but with England facing a much easier path in the knockout round, the aforementioned Ronaldo and Lukaku may have fewer matches in which to score goals.

Belgium’s main man also picked up a knock that could hinder his performance going forward so before placing a bet on Lukaku, make sure he’s fit for the Red Devils’ Round of 16 match against Japan.

Value Plays

There is still plenty of value on the list with guys like Eden Hazard, Philippe Coutinho and Luka Modric all a hat trick away from drawing level with Harry in the Golden Boot race.

Of those names, Modric is being offered at the best price (+10000) and Croatia is on the better side of the bracket. With the Croatians dropping from +3500 to +1000 in the odds to win the World Cup since the tournament began, people are beginning to realize just how good this team is. The Blazers have a serious shot to make it all the way to the final if they continue to play like they did in the group and with Modric taking the penalties for them, he’ll always have a stake in the race to be top scorer.

Luis Suarez is another name that pops off the page at +2800. Uruguay has yet to concede a goal at the 2018 World Cup and looks like a side built to progress through a tournament of this nature. Suarez, being the main goal-scoring threat for this side, should have ample opportunity to add to his tally if La Celeste keep on advancing.

For the full list of updated Golden Boot odds, head over to Bovada and click the World Cup Futures tab. 

Odds as of June 29 at  Bovada

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Slotting home half of England’s goals in a 6-1 win over Panama, Harry Kane took over the lead in the World Cup Golden Boot race and at +200, he’s now the favorite to win it.

Two of the three that made up his hat trick came from penalties and he probably didn’t know anything about the third that clipped his heel en route to the net but they all count the same and Harry will take any goal that’s given to him. 

For the full list of updated Golden Boot odds, head over to Bovada and click the World Cup Futures tab. 

Odds as of June 24 at  Bovada

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Cristiano Ronaldo buried his fourth goal of the 2018 World Cup on Wednesday in a 1-0 win over Morocco and his odds to be the tournament’s top goalscorer increased from +225 to +150.

Scoring all of his team’s goals through two games, Ronaldo has put Lionel Messi and the rest of the world on notice. He’s already more than doubled his all-time World Cup total and with a trip to the knockout round looking all but guaranteed, Ronnie has at least two more games to rack up goals.

For the full list of updated Golden Boot odds, head over to Bovada and click the World Cup Futures tab. 

Odds as of June 20 at  Bovada

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Harry Kane played hero for England on Monday in the World Cup, scoring both of the goals for the Three Lions in a 2-1 win against Tunisia, and he’s now +500 at Bovada to take home the Golden Boot, a trophy he’s won two of the past three seasons in the English Premier League.

Not only did captain Kane score, he did so in dramatic fashion, burying the winning goal in the first minute of injury time after an incredibly tepid half of football from the England 11.

That could be a common theme from here on with other England forwards like Jesse Lingard and Raheem Sterling looking like they forgot their scoring boots and 5/1 might be the best value you get on Kane for the rest of the tournament.

Lukaku Bags a Brace of his Own

Not to be forgotten is another Premier League striker, Romelu Lukaku. Manchester United’s starting No. 9 netted a pair for Belgium in a 3-0 win over Panama and now trails only Kane and Ronaldo in the odds to be top goalscorer at +600.

The Red Devils could make a run if manager Roberto Martinez figures out the tactics and while his target man didn’t receive much service in the first half against the Panamanians, the second 45 was another story. Lukaku scored off a brilliant side-footed slanted cross from Kevin De Bruyne and finished a lovely little chip for his brace.

If their play against England was any indication, Tunisia is ripe for conceding in Matchday 2 when they face Belgium and it would not be shocking to see Lukaku bend the twine on multiple occasions.

For the full list of updated Golden Boot odds, head over to Bovada and click the World Cup Futures tab. 

Odds as of June 18 at  Bovada

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In what will go down as one of the greatest group stage matches in World Cup history, Cristiano Ronaldo bagged a hat-trick in a 3-3 draw vs Iberian rival Spain and he’s now the +200 favorite to be the tournament’s top goalscorer. 

Portugal’s breadwinner entered the 2018 World Cup with +1600 odds to win the Golden Boot at Bovada but with three already after the first game, Ronaldo is already halfway to James Rodriguez’ 2014 total.

Will Ronaldo Win Golden Boot Now?

By no means has CR7 secured the award with Diego Costa hot on his heels and some of the world’s best scorers yet to play but three is an awfully good start with Morocco and Iran still to come in the group.

You’ve lost a ton of value at this point but 2/1 still seems like a decent shout for a team that could go deep in Russia.

Where is the Value in Top Goalscorer Odds?

It’s still early days in the 2018 World Cup and many players have yet to see the pitch. That means there’s still plenty of value on the top goalscorer oddsboard. 

Neymar at +900 is still a great bet – if he’s healthy. The Brazilian star looked brilliant in the Canarinho’s warm-up friendlies and he’s in the prime of his career. This could be Neymar’s tournament if he’s up for it and at 9/1 it could be yours too.

Falling inexplicably to +4000, Thomas Muller deserves some love. All the man has done in a German kit is score goals and there’s no reason to think he won’t do the same in Russia. 

He has already played but Edinson Cavani is worth a punt at +4000. The Uruguayan was unbelievably good against Egypt and he was unfortunate not to score multiple times. Robbed by the keeper on one occasion and blasting the post on another, Cavani nearly had two worldies to his name but with a match against Saudi Arabia still to come, he still has time for redemption.

Head over to Bovada and click the World Cup Futures tab for the entire list. 

Odds as of June 16 at  Bovada

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We are now less than a week out from the kickoff of the 2018 World Cup in Russia and with 23-man squads locked down, we have a much firmer grasp on who will be doing the goal scoring this summer and we can narrow our sights on who we want to bet on to be the tournament’s top goalscorer.

Let’s take a look at the most important odds changes at Bovada since our last update.

Messi and Neymar Drop to +1000

This is nothing to be concerned about if you’ve already backed either of these prolific South Americans. It is, however, an opportunity to grab the favorites at a better price if you are so inclined. It is very likely that both men find the back of the net early and often at the World Cup and at 10/1 you’re not getting ripped off. 

In my opinion, though, Neymar is the better bet. Given some internal struggles and horrible play on the pitch, Argentina is not a team I’m clamoring to bet on at this tournament. If they go out early or fail to make it to the knockout round, Messi Golden Boot futures will be all but sunk.

Neymar, however, is in the prime of his career and Brazil is on the precipice of something special in Russia and is actually favored to win the tournament. 

Ronaldo’s Odds are Slipping

Dropping from +1200 to +1600 in the odds to win the Golden Boot at the World Cup, Cristiano Ronaldo is shaping up as one of the best bets on the board. CR7 nearly set a record for goal scoring in World Cup qualifying and his team is built for tournament success.

Portugal is all but a lock to get to the knockout round so a lack of minutes shouldn’t be a problem for the Navigators talisman. 

Lukaku is on the Rise

The Belgian Best, Romelu Lukaku, might be more primed for a big World Cup than any other goalscorer and his move from +2000 to +1800 makes a lot of sense and potentially a lot of dollars. He is absolutely surrounded by world-class setup men with the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard and Dries Mertens in Belgium’s attacking ranks so supply should not be an issue for Manchester United’s goal poacher.

Here’s the complete Golden Boot oddsboard:

Odds as of June 8 at  Bovada

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The beautiful game reaches its four-year pinnacle this June when 32 of the best footballing nations on the planet meet in Russia for the 2018 World Cup. Most of the reading and handicapping you’ll do in the lead-up to the final will be focused on the teams and who will win but this piece hones in on the players who will get their teams across the line and the odds on which one will finish as the tournament’s top goalscorer, winning the coveted Golden Boot award.

Before placing a Golden Boot bet, there are a couple of things you’ll want to consider as it’s not an easy wager to hit. I’ll do my best to break them down for you here, and at the end I’ll provide a few players I think have a good shot at heading home with the hardware.

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Look for a contender

In the 20 World Cup finals since the four-year cycle began in 1930, the top goalscorer has come from a team that placed first, second or third all but two times and, interestingly, the bronze medalists have had a share of an astounding 11 Golden Boot awards.

The theory behind looking for a contender is obvious as advancing further into the tournament gives you more fixtures to score goals but the reasoning behind third-place producing so many top scorers is a little more complex.

Historically, bronze-medal games have been higher-scoring, producing an extra half a goal on average when compared to gold-medal games. This is likely due to the perceived importance – or lack thereof – for the third-place fixture.

Of course, it’s nearly impossible to project who will finish exactly third in Russia so you’ll want to select players on the teams you think are most likely going to make it to the semifinals (Tip: take a look at the futures odds to see which nations sportsbooks think are most likely to win the tournament).

Find value

One of the most important pieces of this puzzle is finding a player who’s a bit under the radar but who’s going to heavily feature in a squad that has a good chance to go deep and it doesn’t necessarily have to be a striker.

The last two Golden Boot winners (James Rodriguez and Thomas Muller) were both attacking midfielders and while you’re going to want to mix in a high-priced No. 9 or two, middies can provide excellent value for the long-shot bettors out there.

James, for example, is the incumbent winner, yet he’s being offered at +5000 odds at Bovada. That said, there has never been a repeat Golden Boot winner and I don’t expect Colombia to make a darling run to the semifinals despite drawing one of the more favorable groups in the tournament.

My strategy for value is to take teams in the top 10 in World Cup futures, eliminate the Messis and Neymars and pick from the secondary scorers.

Now, let’s take a look at some of the options.

Pre-Tournament Picks

Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) +1200

My chalkiest pick, Ronaldo certainly has the scoring pedigree and he’s coming off a runner-up effort in the 2016 UEFA European Championship Golden Boot race.

Portugal is the kind of squad that’s built to go deep in this kind of competition – evidenced by their win in France – and I think they’re being shorted by oddsmakers.

The Portuguese will surely navigate themselves to the quarters at the very least after a disappointing effort in Brazil and with Rotten Ronnie turning 37 before Qatar 2022, CR7 will do his damnedest to leave his mark on the world stage in Russia this summer.

Timo Werner (Germany) +1600

Take this with a grain of salz as Joachim Low likes to keep his tactics under wraps for as long as possible and I’m not sure how much the German speedster will figure into the defending champion’s plans.

Werner is, however, the most talented striker the Germans have had in some time, possessing skills and speed atypical of a traditional Nationalelf No. 9.

I will be shocked if the Leipzig forward isn’t selected for the majority of the starting XI’s and with Germany installed as pre-tournament favorites, Werner should have ample time to ply his goal-scoring trade.

Dries Mertens (Belgium) +3300

The Belgians’ propensity to bottle things up makes this a bit of a hairy prospect but at face value, the Red Devils possess one of the top three or four most talented squads and Dries Mertens is a big reason for that.

The Napoli forward is the top scorer for the most lethal front three in Serie A, using his unique mix of pace and skill to lead the lines for the Light Blues.

Likely slotting into a wide position next to Romelu Lukaku and Eden Hazard for the majority of Belgium’s contests, Mertens will have plenty of service from EPL superstar Kevin De Bruyne. He won’t have to worry about scoring opportunities, it’s just a matter of how Dr. Dries takes them.

Kylian Mbappe (France) +3300

With just three goals for the senior squad in 12 caps and a massive French talent pool to pick from, Mbappe is flying under the radar a bit at +3300.

The super-talented teenager was “loaned” to PSG after a breakout season for Monaco and he’s gone on to score 13 goals in 25 matches with the Parisians.

The World Cup hasn’t always been the brightest stage for youngsters but James’ performance for the Colombians as a 22-year-old in 2014 showed what’s possible for players like Mbappe.

Roberto Firmino (Brazil) +6600

Playing second fiddle to the exhilarating Mohamed Salah this season, Roberto Firmino has not so quietly accumulated 25 goals for Liverpool across his 43 Premier League and Champions League appearances (thus far) and he’s a big reason for the Reds’ run to the UCL final as 10 of those 25 were scored in just 12 Champs League matches.

The list of potential attackers is long for the green and yellow but it would be robbery to keep the man they call Bobby Chompers out of the lineup given what he’s achieved with his club.

I’d recommend waiting until May 14 to make this bet as that’s when we’ll know for sure whether Roberto will be going to Russia. If he’s named to the 30-man squad? Fire away. If he’s not? Invest in either Gabriel Jesus or former Liverpool teammate Philippe Coutinho.

This page will be constantly updated throughout the World Cup so keep it bookmarked and watch for sudden changes on Twitter.

Golden Boot Betting Strategies

Here’s the complete Golden Boot oddsboard:

Odds as of May 29 at  Bovada

Bet on the 2018 World Cup here