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Germany Drops Opener to Mexico, Now +750 in Odds to Win World Cup

What a wild first four days it’s been at the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia.

We’ve seen Argentina and Brazil share the points with Iceland and Switzerland respectively and we watched in awe as Spain and Portugal drew 3-3 in an absolute classic.

Perhaps most noteworthy, however, was Mexico executing a master class in a 1-0 win over the heavily favored Germans in the Group F opener Sunday.

With that in mind, we’ve seen a bit of an odds shakeup in odds to win the 2018 World Cup betting markets, so with just a handful of Matchday 1 games left to go, let’s take a look at where we sit.

Bet on the World Cup here!

Germany Odds Sink After Loss

Germany was second on the oddsboard entering Day 1 of the World Cup at +475 but that 1-0 loss to Mexico has moved them to +750. Those holding Germany futures tickets should not necessarily fret quite yet, but the 2014 World Cup winners now have a monumental task ahead of them.

As I write, Sweden has just beaten South Korea 1-0 so Sweden and Mexico top Group F with three points apiece. Germany now must take three points from Sweden in their meeting Saturday or else we could be bidding auf wiedersehen to Die Mannschaft.

If you think Germany still has a shot, now is a pretty good time to buy in. While they looked completely outclassed against Mexico (who moved from +10000 to +4000 after the win), the final two group stage meetings against Sweden and South Korea look to be a bit more favorable.

A lot has to fall into place for Joachim Löw and his side, but if anyone in Russia can dig themselves out of this type of hole, it’s the Germans.

Portugal Odds Shorten After Ronaldo Display

As mentioned at the top, Portugal’s 3-3 draw against Iberian neighbors Spain set the bar extremely high for the best match of the 2018 World Cup. In particular, it was Cristiano Ronaldo at the peak of his powers.

Ronaldo notched a hat trick with a penalty, a long-range effort that handcuffed the normally dependable David de Gea, and scored a free kick that would have made Juninho Pernambucano envious. It was vintage Ronaldo and he looks ready to make a deep run in Russia.

Portugal saw a slight bump as they had been +2200 in odds to win the World Cup but as of Monday morning are +1800 after sharing the points with Spain.

Spain also saw their odds shorten, going from +650 before the tournament to now +450, just second behind Brazil.

Spain and Portugal were always chalky bets to escape Group B but both trail Iran who is on three points after beating Morocco 1-0 thanks to a disastrous own goal from Aziz Bouhaddouz.

Both these heavyweights return to action on Wednesday as Portugal faces Morocco and Spain plays Iran.

Here’s a look at the complete 32-team oddsboard as of Monday morning:

ODDS TO WIN 2018 World Cup
TeamOdds
Brazil+400
Spain+450
France+700
Germany+750
Belgium+900
Argentina+1100
England+1400
Portugal+1800
Croatia+2800
Uruguay+3000
Colombia+4000
Mexico+4000
Russia+5000
Poland+8000
Switzerland+8000
Denmark+10000
Serbia+12500
Peru+15000
Sweden+15000
Senegal+20000
Iceland+20000
Nigeria+20000
Egypt+30000
Japan+30000
Australia+30000
Iran+50000
South Korea+50000
Tunisia+50000
Costa Rica+75000
Panama+100000
Morocco+200000
Saudi Arabia+200000

Odds as of June 18 at Bovada

Archived Articles

The 2018 World Cup is finally upon us with Russia and Saudi Arabia kicking things off Thursday in Moscow. While neither side is really looking like a major player come July 15, let’s take a look at the updated oddsboard on the eve of the curtain raiser at Luzhniki Stadium.

We last took a look about a week ago but there has been some odds movement at Bovada and some news to consider for those who haven’t gotten their wagers in.

Bet on the World Cup here!

Spain’s Coaching Chaos

Speaking of “news,” the biggest piece of info is Spain’s firing of Julen Lopetegui mere hours before the ball gets rolling in Russia.

News broke Tuesday that Lopetegui was taking over the vacant Real Madrid job and then, less than 24 hours later, he was sent packing by the Spanish FA and replaced by Real Madrid club legend Fernando Hierro.

In the last update, Spain was still +600 in odds to win the World Cup, but as of Wednesday afternoon, they had seen a slight move to +650.

How this plays out, we will not know until that key fixture with Portugal on Friday. Maybe there’s a chance the squad – which is still so, so good – rallies around Hierro and doesn’t miss a beat. The flip side to that coin is that Lopetegui’s exit is disastrous and the team can’t get its act together.

Spain is in a manageable group so it could still see safe passage to the knockout rounds, but Hierro has a ton of work to do to get this team prepped mentally while Lopetegui is sent home with a chance that he is vilified for his decision to put club before country.

Brazil’s Odds Still Moving

Brazil now sits at +400 at online shop Bovada in odds to win the World Cup due in part to some stellar friendlies leading up to the start of the tournament.

The Seleção has been dynamite in four friendlies this year, dispatching Russia 3-0, Germany 1-0, Croatia 2-0 and Austria 3-0 since March 23.

Of note here is the fact that Brazil easily handled the Austrians on June 10 – just days after Austria posted its first win over Germany in some 32 years with a 2-1 victory in Klagenfurt.

Brazil is entering the tournament in excellent form with Neymar looking hungry for international success.

Russia’s Stock Continues to Plummet

Hosts generally punch above their weight at World Cups but bettors don’t seem to be buying into what Russia is selling.

Last week, Russia was priced at +5000 and even opened at +3300. With their opener against Saudi Arabia on Thursday, they now sit at +6000 to win the whole thing.

I think it’s fair to say that nobody expects Russia to hoist the trophy on July 15, but considering where they opened and where they sit now, it doesn’t bode well.

They haven’t played very well in recent friendlies but did manage some draws against the likes of Spain and, most recently, Turkey.

There is a lot of pressure on the host nation but this has the feeling of South Africa 2010 as opposed to South Korea 2002.

Here’s a look at the complete 32-team oddsboard:

ODDS TO WIN 2018 World Cup
TeamOdds
Brazil+400
Germany+475
Spain+650
France+700
Argentina+900
Belgium+1100
England+1600
Portugal+2200
Uruguay+2800
Croatia+3500
Colombia+4500
Russia+6000
Poland+8000
Mexico+10000
Denmark+10000
Switzerland+10000
Senegal+15000
Peru+15000
Serbia+15000
Sweden+20000
Egypt+20000
Nigeria+25000
Iceland+30000
Japan+30000
Costa Rica+50000
Australia+50000
Iran+50000
Morocco+50000
South Korea+50000
Tunisia+50000
Panama+100000
Saudi Arabia+100000

Odds as of June 13 at Bovada

Archived Articles

June 4 was an important date on the World Cup calendar as it marked the deadline for competing nations to submit their 23-man rosters. Now that we know the 736 players who will be going to Russia, we can get a better grasp on how things are going to shape up.

Let’s have a look at some of the odds changes at Bovada since our last update.

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Brazil is Now Favored to Win

Germany had been favored to win the 2018 World Cup for what seemed like an eternity but after a friendly loss to Austria, Brazil slid into the top spot at +400 with Die Mannschaft slipping to +475.

This does seem like a bit of an overreaction given the Germans’ dominance in qualifying but when you consider that the defending World Cup champs haven’t won a game in 2018, it’s a tough move to argue.

Joachim Low made headlines when he left Manchester City standout Leroy Sane off the squad after a race for the final few spots concluded in what the longtime national team manager referred to as a “photo finish.”

Brazil, meanwhile, has done nothing but pour in results. They scored two spectacular goals against Croatia in a friendly fixture of their own and The Green and Yellow look like justifiable favorites.

The two nations are actually lined up to meet in the World Cup final if they both win their groups as they’re expected to. Yes, they’ll also have to win three knockout games each to make this happen but wouldn’t that be something?

Poland’s Odds Plummet 

The Poles were always going to be long shots to win the World Cup but they were gutted recently to find out that their star center back Kamil Glik would have to miss Russia 2018 with a shoulder injury he sustained attempting a bicycle kick in training.

Poland’s odds immediately dropped from +6600 to +8000 and you can likely write them off with the heart of their defense now ripped out of an already thin lineup.

Uruguay on the Rise

A team to watch at the World Cup, Uruguay’s odds to win have been steadily increasing since groups were drawn in November and they reached an all-time high at +2500 when they announced the 23-man squad.

Not as reliant as they once were on star strikers Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez, the Uruguayans have a solid core of gifted midfielders and one of the strongest backlines in the tournament – just ask Atletico fans.

This team is no joke and should be seriously considered in World Cup futures with a fairly easy path to the knockout round.

Russia Heading in the Wrong Direction

Entering the tournament as the 66th-ranked nation according to FIFA, Russia might be in a spot of trouble despite their hosting privileges.

Opening up at +3300, Russia has tumbled past Colombia, Croatia and Uruguay all the way to +5000. While they have what could be considered an “easy” path out of the group, they’ll likely have to face either Spain or Portugal in the Round of 16.

It’s needless to say the Ruskies would be enormous underdogs in each of those matches and unless we see some funny business, that’s where Putin’s tournament will end.

Here’s a look at the complete 32-team oddsboard with 23-man squads now locked in:

ODDS TO WIN 2018 World Cup
TeamOdds
Brazil+450
Germany+475
Spain+600
France+650
Argentina+950
Belgium+1200
England+1800
Uruguay+2500
Portugal+2800
Croatia+3300
Colombia+4000
Russia+5000
Poland+8000
Mexico+10000
Denmark+10000
Switzerland+10000
Sweden+15000
Senegal+15000
Egypt+15000
Serbia+20000
Iceland+20000
Japan+20000
Nigeria+20000
Peru+20000
Costa Rica+30000
Australia+30000
Iran+50000
Morocco+50000
South Korea+50000
Tunisia+50000
Panama+100000
Saudi Arabia+100000

Odds as of June 5 at Bovada

Archived Articles

We are now a little over one month away from the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia and it’s time to start betting on who will win the World Cup. Domestic leagues are winding down and World Cup 2018 chatter is picking up. If you don’t have your 2018 World Cup futures wager in yet, now is the time!

With that in mind, let’s take a look at a couple of the risers and fallers from Odds to Win the World Cup markets and see what kind of movement we’ve seen in the past month.

Odds are courtesy Bovada.

Bet on the 2018 World Cup here

Risers

Brazil – Was: +500, Now: +450

Not a big move by any stretch, but a significant one nonetheless.

Brazil, now joint favorites with Germany with odds to win the World Cup at +450, has won more World Cups than any other country (five) and fields one of the most talented XIs regardless of the year. The thing about Canarinho this time around is that they’ve got revenge on their minds.

The last time we saw Brazil at the World Cup, they were being systematically dismantled in front of their home crowd by a ruthless and clinical Germany by a score of 7-1. Fast-forward four years and Brazil will want to do their best to make that embarrassment a distant memory.

That four-year window has seen the likes of Neymar, Roberto Firmino, Gabriel Jesus, Willian, Casemiro and Philippe Coutinho blossom into incredible, global superstars that have the potential to beat anyone heading to Russia and do it stylistically and beautifully.

Backing Brazil at an international tournament – especially the World Cup – is never a bad idea, but doing it sooner rather than later is probably a wise move. They should have little to no problem advancing from a group that features Costa Rica, Serbia and Switzerland and value could evaporate.

Croatia – Was: +4000, Now: +3300

I fully understand Croatia’s slow but steady climb up the oddsboard. This is genuinely one of the most talented sides heading to the 2018 FIFA World Cup and may possess one of the best midfields in the tournament.

I could use this space to gush over the world-class players that are featured in this side but you already know the names. OK, fine, but last names only. Modrić, Rakitić, Perišić and Mandžukić – just a few of the names that have been great players on the global stage for this side and names set to make a deep push this summer.

The trouble with this futures bet is the group – it’s a tough one. Group D features a quartet of talented sides including Argentina, Nigeria and Euro 2016 heroes Iceland. It will be no small feat advancing to the Round of 16.

This team was playing some of the most sublime football in the group stage at Euro 2016 (two wins, one draw in a group with Spain, Turkey and the Czechs) before falling flat in a loss to (eventual champions, mind you) Portugal in the Round of 16 two summers ago.

There is always going to be risk if backing the Croats in futures markets, but one thing is for sure: the value is immense for such a talented squad.

Fallers

France - Was: +550, Now: +700

The injury to Laurent Koscielny is a notable blow to France as he provided some experience (51 caps) and stability at the back for what looks to be a young team.

Koscielny suffered an injury to his Achilles in the second leg of Arsenal’s Europa League fixture against Atletico Madrid and reports indicate he will be out of training until December. This means France will potentially lean on Raphaël Varane and Samuel Umtiti as a first-choice centerback pairing at the World Cup. That’s not necessarily a bad thing as the latter has emerged as one of the top CBs in world football since joining Barcelona, but he only has 16 caps at the senior level.

France is loaded with talent from the sticks out with names like Hugo Lloris, Paul Pogba, N’Golo Kanté, Antoine Griezmann, Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé peppering the team sheet. Les Bleues were runners-up at Euro 2016 and reached the quarterfinals of the last World Cup but Russia 2018 feels like a bit more of a tournament of growth for the next-gen stars that will see the bulk of the playing time for France.

Colombia – Was: +3300, Now: +4000

Colombia was the darling of the 2014 World Cup scoring golazos and dancing all the way to the quarterfinal before losing 2-1 to hosts Brazil in Fortaleza. Expectations will be – and should be – lofty for this talented and deep side. After all, they feature 2014 Golden Boot winner James Rodriguez, who is just entering his prime.

This is a team that will play quick, counter-attacking football but it does find itself inside a deceptively tough group. Los Cafeteros share Group H with Japan, Poland and Senegal. Japan looks to be the pushover in the group but Poland and Senegal will be extremely tough matches.

Head coach José Pékerman has World Cup history as he helped steer Argentina to the quarterfinals of the 2006 World Cup so the leadership and experience is certainly there to guide this team to another deep run.

Much like Croatia, a little wager on this team at +4000 wouldn’t be the worst thing you’ve done today.

Here’s a look at the futures board with a little under one month until the World Cup:

ODDS TO WIN 2018 World Cup
TeamOdds
Germany+450
Brazil+450
Spain+600
France+700
Argentina+900
Belgium+1100
England+1600
Portugal+2500
Uruguay+3300
Croatia+3300
Russia+3300
Colombia+4000
Poland+6600
Mexico+8000
Denmark+8000
Switzerland+10000
Sweden+10000
Senegal+15000
Serbia+15000
Egypt+15000
Iceland+15000
Japan+20000
Nigeria+20000
Peru+20000
Costa Rica+25000
Morocco+30000
Iran+30000
Australia+30000
South Korea+40000
Tunisia+50000
Panama+100000
Saudi Arabia+100000

Archived Articles

With domestic leagues the world over on hiatus for the international break, it’s time for a closer inspection on the odds to win the 2018 World Cup.

We last updated the World Cup odds in December and not much has changed since then. We have seen Belgium go from +1100 to +1000, no doubt bolstered by some incredible performances from the likes of Tottenham Hotspur midfielder Mousa Dembele and Borussia Dortmund striker Michy Batshuayi.

Belgium is going through its “golden generation” of football and is absolutely stacked with talent but has yet to make a serious run at any international trophies. They sit in Group G with England, Panama and Tunisia and are the -120 favorites to win the group at online shop Bovada.

Belgium’s best result in the World Cup came in 1986 when it finished fourth. Currently ranked fifth in the FIFA rankings, Roberto Martinez’s side has a lot to prove in Russia this summer. There is no shortage of talent from the sticks out and even with the current odds adjustment, the Red Devils are worth backing.

Another team on the move is Portugal, which now sits at +2500 after sitting at +2800 in our last update. This is likely due to the fact that superstar Cristiano Ronaldo has been in beast mode of late with 17 goals in an eight-match scoring streak for Real Madrid in all competitions.

Portugal has a tough group with Iberian neighbors Spain in the mix as well as Morocco and Iran. Spain is currently -190 to win the group with Cristiano and company at +180.

The bulk of this side was vital in the nation’s win at Euro 2016 so the experience and winning mentality is there. Ronaldo is basically superhuman and is perfectly capable of winning matches and tournaments with little to no help so don’t be surprised to see him do just that in Russia.

Here’s a look at the futures board ahead of this week’s World Cup tune-up matches:

2018 World Cup Futures
TeamOdds
Germany+450
Brazil+500
France+550
Spain+700
Argentina+800
Belgium+1000
England+1600
Portugal+2500
Uruguay+2800
Colombia+3300
Russia+3300
Croatia+4000
Poland+5000
Mexico+8000
Switzerland+8000
Denmark+8000
Sweden+10000
Senegal+12500
Serbia+15000
Egypt+15000
Iceland+15000
Japan+20000
Nigeria+20000
Peru+20000
Costa Rica+25000
Morocco+30000
Iran+30000
Australia+30000
South Korea+40000
Tunisia+50000
Panama+100000
Saudi Arabia+100000

Bet on the 2018 World Cup here

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