Which Sport do Underdogs Win in the Most Often?

Cashing underdog bets feels great as a sports bettor because of the handsome payouts. But have you ever wondered what sport has the most upsets? Are you curious how often underdogs win in NFL or NBA games? Do you think underdog betting is more profitable in college football or college basketball?

This article answers those questions and contains betting advice and a breakdown of how often underdogs win in the most popular sports leagues (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, and college football and basketball).

Underdog win percentages by sport

Here’s the win percentage of underdogs (including playoffs) in each sport for their most recent season. Note: For the NBA, data is updated through Game 3 of the Finals. For the NHL, data is updated through Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals and for the MLB, data is updated through all June 12 games.FC For historical purposes we also included the five-year period from 2015-2020 when each sport looked a little different (pre kickoff rule in the NFL, pre pitch clock in MLB, etc.). The chart below is for SU wagers.

League	2024-2025 MLB Note: MLB Records are from the 2025 season through June 12	2015-2020 Win %
Major League Baseball (MLB)	42.0%	41.6%
National Hockey League (NHL)	39.1%	41.4%
National Football League (NFL)	29.5%	34.2%
National Basketball Association (NBA)	31.2%	32.1%
NCAA Basketball Division 1 Includes only D1 games	26.6%	25.9%
NCAA Football Division 1 Includes only D1 FBS games	26.0%	21.9%

This chart above answers the question, "What sport has the most upsets?" as we can see that at least among the most commonly bet major sports, the best underdog bets are made in MLB. The best sportsbooks in the U.S. often find themselves rooting for MLB underdogs and it often pays to be on the side of the sportsbook.

If you're curious which specific MLB teams have been most profitable as underdogs, check out this MLB underdog betting report.

Interesting notes from the chart above:

There isn't much difference between home underdogs and road underdogs in the NBA this past season as road dogs had a 30.7 win % (244-550) compared to 31.9% (167-356) at home
College basketball also didn't have much of a difference between road underdogs and home underdogs as home dogs were 50.9% (807-780-27) compared to 50.6% (2061-2013-71) for traveling underdogs
MLB underdogs were more successful at home 46.9% (174-197) than on the road where they won 39.2% (253-392) of the time
Underdogs in College Football were far more likely to win at home (33.8%, 102-200) than on the road (22.1%, 136-479)
Home underdogs were far more successful in the NHL than road underdogs as traveling dogs won 35.9% (312-556) of the time vs. an impressive 44.4% (232-291) home underdog record

How often to underdogs win in the NFL?

Perhaps what is most interesting from this data is how much NFL underdogs struggled last season. As noted in our NFL Underdog Betting Report, there were several high profile upsets early in the season (hehem, Patriots over Bengals Week 1) but as the regular season went on, there was a lot of chalk.

Underdog ATS win percentages by sport

The chart below shows the win percentage of underdogs (including playoffs) in each sport for the most recent season against the point spread, puck line, or run line. Note: For the NBA, data is updated through Game 3 of the Finals. For the NHL, data is updated through Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals and for the MLB, data is updated through all June 12 games.FC

League	2024-2025 MLB Note: MLB Records are from the 2025 season through June 12
Major League Baseball	59.3%
National Hockey League	60.3%
National Football League	46.9%
National Basketball Association	50.1%
NCAA Basketball Division 1 Includes only D1 games	50.7%
NCAA Football Division 1 Includes only D1 FBS games	50.9%

Before you go rushing out to bet every single underdog in MLB and the NHL, remember that the vigorish on the run line in MLB and the puck line in the NHL works a lot differently than other sports.

While the most common vig for point spread bets is around -110 for basketball and football games, it's very common to see vigorish of -200 or higher for a +1.5 number in the MLB and NHL. In other words, you could have a winning record blindly betting every single underdog vs. the puck line or run line and still lose money because those bets weren't paying very well. If this concept is still unclear or you're a beginner wondering, "is plus or minus the underdog?" then check out the full + or - breakdown with examples in our guide to understanding sports betting odds.

Notable Underdog Upsets In Sports Betting History

The biggest upsets in sports betting history have been forever etched into our minds. The chart below details some of the most improbable comebacks and upsets in the history of sports. Keep in mind that while many of the underdog betting odds below were from immediately before the event started (boxing for instance), some were from after a seven-game series already started (MLB for instance).

Year	Team/Person	Sport	Feat	Underdog Odds	Probability
2015-16	Leicester City Foxes	Soccer	Win Premier League	+500000	0.02%
2018	UMBC	NCAAB	No. 16 beats No. 1 in March	~+2000	4.76%
2023	Fairleigh-Dickinson	NCAAB	No. 16 beats No. 1 March	~+2000	4.76%
2004	Boston Red Sox	MLB	Win World Series	+12000	0.83%
2011	St. Louis Cardinals	MLB	Win World Series	+20000	0.5%
1999	St. Louis Rams	NFL	Win Super Bowl	+30000	0.33%
2016	Cleveland Cavaliers	NBA	Win NBA Title	+1100	8.33%
2011-12	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	Win Stanley Cup	+2800	3.45%
2007	Appalachian State	NCAAF	FCS Beats Ranked FBS Team	~+8500	1.16%
2007	Matt Serra	UFC	KO Georges St. Pierre	+850	10.53%
1990	Buster Douglas	Boxing	KO Mike Tyson	+4200	2.33%

How to Find the best Underdogs

As you can now see, blindly betting the underdog vs. a favorite in every game of a sport is not a path to long-term success. If that were the case, sports betting would be easy and you wouldn't need our advice. Instead, sports betting is complex so we encourage you to pick your spots when trying to find underdogs to bet.

Below is some sports betting strategy on finding success with underdog sports betting on your own, but it's important to mention that Wunderdog Sports is one of the best in the business at finding dogs and that's actually how they got their name because founder Geoff Kulesa was so successful targeting underdogs decades ago. You can read my complete review of Wunderdog Sports here.

Always shop Around

Finding the best price is almost as important as finding the right dog. Think about it, if you like the Dolphins moneyline at +160 and another sportsbook is offering +165 or +170, you're missing out on winnings and over time that will cost you. Furthermore, if you're not using several of the top sports betting apps, then you're missing out on lucrative welcome bonuses and promotions. Any professional bettor will tell you that using one sportsbook when you live in a state that allows multiple books is a bad idea.

Use sports betting resources

There are a lot of sports betting resources out there including valuable websites with free data like kenpom.com (for college basketball bettors) or fangraphs.com (for MLB bettors). OddsShark.com offers computer picks and we also review other pick service providers and provide you with tools like our odds calculator.

Don't bet with emotions

When you're identifying underdogs, use thoughtful logic and analysis and not your emotions. That means not betting on your favorite team because of loyalty or being rushed into a bet you'll regret because it's an in-game wager. As always, bet with your head and not your heart.

Tune Out the National Media

No disrespect to the talking heads on television, but most of them are not professional bettors or sports betting experts. Take it with a grain of salt if an announcer or pundit suggests an underdog upset is likely. Beat writers (who you can follow on X) aren't professional bettors either, but they're a far superior source of information about a team than most national reporters. Instead of trusting one national reporter's advice on an upcoming game, try seeking out the perspectives of sports betting experts and beat writers from both teams playing.