UFC 244: Masvidal vs Diaz Odds Analysis

The annual November trip to Madison Square Garden is right around the corner with UFC 244 taking place on November 2. Headlining the card is a bout in the welterweight division with the BMF title on the line between Nate Diaz and Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal. Both fighters come in on the heels of big victories and Masvidal is a -155 favorite for this fight with Diaz coming back at +125.

For a full breakdown and odds for UFC 244, check out my preview and prediction article.

Odds Analysis

This is the first time that Gamebred has been favored in a fight since he collided with Jake Ellenberger at The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale in December 2016 – Masvidal won that bout via first-round knockout. Since then, the Florida native has been a dog in five straight fights and holds a 3-2 record over that span.

Meanwhile, being an underdog is nothing new for Diaz, who hasn’t been favored in a fight since his April 2013 loss to Josh Thomson when he was a -155 favorite – the only fight in which he was knocked out. In the six bouts since, he has been the betting underdog and sports a 4-2 record over that span.

How Will This Fight Play Out?

Both of these fighters are coming off impressive victories. For Masvidal, he needed just five seconds to hand Ben Askren the first loss of his career with an incredible flying knee knockout. Prior to that, he pulled off a pretty sizable upset over Darren Till in London, England with a second-round knockout.

On the other hand, Stockton’s own Nate Diaz returned to the Octagon following a layoff of nearly three years and secured a unanimous-decision triumph over Anthony Pettis. Before his hiatus, Diaz had been in back-to-back fights with Conor McGregor, earning a second-round submission win in the first bout, while falling by majority decision in the rematch.

With the title of BMF (baddest motherf***er) on the line, I can’t imagine either fighter looking for a takedown and this will likely be a boxing contest. Diaz is scrappy, with elite-level cardio, has a high output of strikes (including slaps) and throws punches in bunches when he backs his foe into a corner. Masvidal is very similar but likely has a little more power and varies his strikes more by using more kicks. Expect a good war between these two!

Odds as of November 2 at Sportsbook

UFC 244 Special Props

Online sportsbook Sportsbook has released several fun prop bets to further the excitement for this bout and there are a couple that really caught my eye. The first one is “Which fighter will be the first to bleed?” You can get Jorge Masvidal at +135, Nate Diaz at +140 or Neither at +200. I really like Diaz at +140! I can’t remember a fight when we didn’t see the pride of Stockton get bloodied and battered. Nate has so much scar tissue from the wars that he has been in, and his fighting style of getting in a phone booth and exchanging hands leads to him absorbing damage and inevitably getting cut.

The second prop that stood out to me was “Will Diaz land a Stockton Slap on Masvidal?” For those who are unfamiliar with this term, Nate Diaz frequently likes to slap his opponents in the fight and then point and tell them that they just got slapped. The “No” for this prop is favored at -400 and the “Yes” is coming back at +250. Now, I know there’s not any bad blood between these fighters, so Diaz may not want to embarrass Masvidal, though I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it anyway so that he can laugh about it.

Here’s a look at the full list of special props for UFC 244: Masvidal vs Diaz:

Odds as of October 31 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 31 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 31 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 31 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 31 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 31 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 31 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 31 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 31 at Sportsbook