With our 3M Open outright wagers placed, we now turn our attention to the prop market for our expert selections for the 2022 3M Open. It is always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2022 3M Open prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
The Open was somewhat of a disappointment for us as Cameron Young fell one stroke short of Cameron Smith by week’s end. The PGA Tour rookie was right in the mix after opening with an 8-under 64 and once again factored in a major championship as he did at the PGA Championship. Young is proving to be one of the best players on the PGA Tour and his first victory is seemingly just around the corner.
The field at the Old Course at St. Andrews featured every big name in the game, which is unfortunately not the case this week for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. Due to a difficult travel schedule and competitors hoping to rest up for a late-summer push in a few weeks, the 3M Open will not be welcoming many of the stars that we are used to seeing on a weekly basis.
With no top-10 players in the Official World Golf Rankings in the field, this week provides a great opportunity for relatively unknown players to perform well. Tony Finau, who commands the top spot on the oddsboard, has been held winless in nearly a year as his last victory came in the 2021 FedExCup playoffs.
Finau is listed at +110 to finish inside the top 20 of the 3M Open after experiencing a disappointing major championship season. Our odds calculator gives the two-time winner on the PGA Tour a 47.6 percent chance to finish inside the top 20 as he has done before at the 3M Open. Needing to lay $100 to profit $110 at those odds, we will instead look to different players in various prop markets for our 3M Open selections.
The 3M Open Prop Bets
Sungjae Im Top-20 Finish (-160)
Odds as of July 19 at Bodog
The South Korean made our outright selections and we will back it up with a top-20 wager. Im has been terrific for the majority of the season and despite playing poorly in his two starts in Scotland, he should thrive in his return to the United States.
Before withdrawing from the Travelers Championship, Im was enjoying an extremely steady stretch of golf. Finishing inside the top 21 in five straight starts, the two-time winner on the PGA Tour finished on the first page of the leaderboard at tournaments such as the Memorial Tournament and the Masters Championship.
Able to compete in some of the strongest fields of the year, Im should have no issues in a field of this caliber. He finished T-15 in his debut appearance in 2019 and has become a member of the clear class of this field. If his game is just mediocre, he should still have a realistic opportunity to finish inside the top 20 at the 3M Open.
Rickie Fowler To Miss The Cut (+185)
Odds as of July 19 at Bodog
The five-time winner on the PGA Tour has not looked like his normal self for nearly three years now and could be in trouble at the 3M Open. While Fowler has found some form, TPC Twin Cities is a horrible fit for his game as trouble lurks around every corner. The Arnold Palmer design features water on 14 of 18 holes and has the potential to send the 33-year-old home early.
Fowler has made the cut in five of his last six tournaments with the outlier being a missed cut at the Travelers Championship. I see plenty of similarities between TPC Twin Cities and TPC River Highlands, another venue that features water hazards with regularity.
The former Ryder Cup player has finished outside the top half in driving accuracy in his last four starts and his iron play is beginning to trend downward. He has lost strokes on approach in three of four starts and is relying solely on his short game to make cuts.
Sahith Theegala To Miss The Cut (+300)
Theegala is playing some fantastic golf and has not missed out on a weekend since the Players Championship in March. The epitome of consistency, there have been some poor moments, mainly at the John Deere Classic where he narrowly made the cut thanks to a birdie on his 36th hole of the tournament at TPC Deere Run.
At St. Andrews, the PGA Tour rookie lost nearly three strokes on approach and relied on his short game heavily around the Old Course. Having experienced his first Open, Theegala may have some fatigue after quickly traveling to and from Scotland. Combine this tight travel schedule with some inconsistencies with his iron play and +300 for Theegala to miss the cut is more than fair for the 3M Open.
Tyler Duncan Top-20 Finish (+345)
While the Scottish Open and The Open were taking place the last two weeks, there were alternate field events on the PGA Tour. Duncan took full advantage of the Barbasol Championship and finished in a tie for 13th in Kentucky. He gained nearly four strokes off the tee and another stroke on approach en route to his strong showing.
Duncan is one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball as he has finished outside the top half of the field in that category only once in 2022. Combine that with an uptick in his approach play and TPC Twin Cities should be a perfect statistical fit.
Duncan posted +1.20 strokes gained approach per round at the AT&T Byron Nelson and +0.48 strokes gained approach per round at the Charles Schwab Challenge where he finished T-15. The Purdue product hasn’t figured out this par 71 in the past, but I am willing to suggest he will in this season’s 3M Open.
Nate Lashley Top-20 Finish (+390)
The 39-year-old missed the cut at the John Deere Classic, but we will look in his direction once again. Striking it well off the tee, Lashley has a fantastic short game and will just need to experience a slight uptick in his approach play to contend at the 3M Open.
He finished T-25 at the Travelers Championship and T-17 at the AT&T Byron Nelson, so he has been hovering near the second and third page of the leaderboard this summer. This is due to his subtle gains with his irons as Lashley has gained strokes on approach in four of six tournaments, yet nothing of substance.
A player who often thrives when ideal conditions are presented, Lashley should be up to the challenge of TPC Twin Cities. He is capable of making birdies in bunches while avoiding costly mistakes, which is the exact game plan needed for the 3M Open. If able to perform as he has all season, he should have no issues finishing inside the top 20.
The 3M Open Prop Bets: What To Look For
The 3M Open boasts one of the weakest fields of the year on the PGA Tour as many players are resting up before the long FedExCup playoffs. After experiencing a stressful major championship season, competitors now have their eyes on the end of the year where strong play will be rewarded in the form of big paychecks. Yet in order to have the chance to compete for these prizes, players must qualify for the postseason and the 3M Open is a great chance for those on the bubble to do so.
Sahith Theegala is an interesting character as he has been present on leaderboards throughout his rookie season on the PGA Tour. After nearly winning the Travelers Championship a few weeks ago, Theegala impressed in The Open and is seemingly on the cusp of his first victory on the PGA Tour.
Despite his great year, Theegala is on the bubble for the top 30 in the FedExCup playoffs and may need a win in order to secure his place in the Tour Championship in August. Given the talent level of the field, he has a great chance to accomplish that.
So does fellow rookie Davis Riley, who has had his opportunities to enter the winner’s circle this season. After losing in a playoff to Sam Burns at the Valspar Championship, Riley was also in contention at the Charles Schwab Challenge before fading during the final nine holes. These two rookies could break through for their first title just as Matthew Wolff did in 2019.
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