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2021 3M Open Prop Bets: Best Props at TPC Twin Cities

The best 2021 3M Open prop bets at TPC Twin Cities

With outright selections placed, we now turn to the prop market for our expert selections for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. It’s always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2021 3M Open prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.

TPC Twin Cities will host the third edition of the 3M Open. In 2020, due to COVID-19, no fans were allowed on the premises as Michael Thompson captured his second career PGA Tour title. In the tournament’s first two years, a shootout has unfolded both times. With winning scores of 19 under and 21 under, something in the 20-under range will likely be good enough to be in the mix come the back nine on Sunday.

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Before Thompson, it was Matthew Wolff who took down the 3M Open in the inaugural PGA Tour event. Wolff secured his first PGA Tour victory, which remains his only win to date. Taking down the likes of Collin Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau, you can draw some conclusions from Wolff’s 3M Open outcome.

The 3M Open Prop Bets: What to Look For

The 3M Open is in an unfavorable spot on the golf calendar. Sandwiched between the final major of the season and the Olympics, and even a World Golf Championship event the following week, this field is lacking some firepower. World No. 2 Dustin Johnson headlines the field as he hopes to stick around for all four rounds after withdrawing following an opening-round 78 last season.

At +700, the price tag is far too short for Johnson. Despite being the clear class of the field, he is still winless in the 2021 calendar year, though after a tough beginning to his summer, he appears to have found some form over the past month.

Having contended in both the U.S. Open and the Open Championship, it wouldn’t be all too surprising if he does the same at the 3M Open. If that does prove to be true, having avoided him in our outright selections, our prop bets will have to carry the load yet again.

In order to do so, our selections will have to make birdies in bunches. Precise iron players, specifically from 150 to 175 yards, and hot putters are the main focus this week. Not only that, but I believe driving the ball in the fairway cannot be overlooked.

There is plenty of trouble lurking at TPC Twin Cities, specifically water hazards. A misstep here or there could put a player behind the 8-ball immediately and ruin his tournament hopes, so accuracy off the tee cannot be understated.

At Bovada, tournament favorite Dustin Johnson is +110 to finish inside the top 10. These betting odds imply a 47.62 percent probability of him being able to do so. As for us, we’ll venture a bit further down the oddsboard as it worked out for us last week.

Robert MacIntyre came through and finished inside the top 10 at a nice price tag at the Open. Hopefully, we’ll get another wager across the finish line as we outline our 3M Open betting props.

The 3M Open Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations

Joel Dahmen (+500 to finish inside the top 10)

Making his 3M Open debut, Dahmen should arrive with plenty of confidence. With a strong showing across the pond last week at Royal St. George’s, Dahmen likely exceeded his expectations in only his second Open Championship. Now, back to the United States he comes as he has now made his way into the weekend in five of his last six starts here in the States since his first PGA Tour victory in Punta Cana.

The reason is Dahmen’s ball-striking, which has been exquisite. His tee-to-green performances at the Wells Fargo Championship and the PGA Championship were hindered by a balky putter. Since then, he’s added two quality outings at the Memorial and the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where the flat stick finally began to cooperate.

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He hasn’t connected on a top-10 finish since his win in March, but this feels like a tournament where Dahmen could thrive. Over the last two months, he’s first in the field in proximity from 175 to 200 yards. If that’s the case this week at the 3M Open, he’ll take a bit of stress off that putter.

Hoping that comes to fruition, Dahmen tops the list of our best prop bets for the 3M Open as I like his chances to sneak inside the top 10 by week’s end.

Steve Stricker (+500 to finish inside the top 10)

There has been plenty of discussion around the Ryder Cup of late. Who will make the team? Who will narrowly miss out? While the talks typically surround the actual players such as Tony Finau, Webb Simpson or other players on the bubble, let’s take a minute to discuss the man who will be making the all-important decisions, Captain Stricker.

Having forgone the Senior U.S. Open to play in the John Deere Classic, Stricker was high on many people’s lists in the Quad Cities. It wasn’t meant to be, but in an unlikely outcome, it was Stricker’s putter that let him down. When looking through his outings, that’s now two consecutive starts it has done so, as it was a bit faulty for the PGA Championship as well.

When he has teed it up on the PGA Tour, he’s been exceptional tee to green. His last three performances include +5.5 Strokes Gained Tee to Green at the Honda Classic, +6.4 SG: Tee to Green at the Ocean Course, and most recently +4.4 SG: Tee to Green at TPC Deere Run.

Having finished in a tie for third here in 2018 in a Champions Tour event, Stricker should feel more than comfortable. If his putter returns to form, he should be able to teach these young guys a thing or two.

Ryan Armour (+550 to finish inside the top 10)

Truth be told, I have had more than my fair share of difficulties figuring out Armour. With him coming off a top-five finish last week at the Barbasol Championship, I’m hoping he can keep his form for one more week. Having been on him at the John Deere Classic, Armour missed the cut narrowly as he wasn't able to do much right in the Quad Cities. While most of his game lagged behind, his irons were still impressive and led him to a strong showing in Kentucky.

Making his third 3M Open appearance, he hasn’t had too much success at TPC Twin Cities. A T-42 in 2019 was followed up with a missed cut in last year’s tournament. However, if you can draw parallels to Wolff’s success, you may be on to something. Both have played well at Detroit Golf Club as well as TPC Summerlin in the past and that could be an avenue through which we find some correlating success.

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It’s not an exact science, but the same players tend to play the same courses well year after year. Wolff clearly has a high comfort level here, so maybe it’ll take Armour a couple more loops around TPC Twin Cities to find the same.

His irons have been excellent over the past month and if the short game decides to show up, that’ll just be icing on the cake. A top-10 finish should be the prudent play and as such makes for one of my best bets for the 3M Open.

Sean O’Hair (+600 to finish inside the top 20)

A bit of a shot in the dark, it appears that O’Hair has found some form over his last couple of starts. A T-32 finish in Detroit has since been followed up with a T-11 in the Quad Cities. However, last week at the Barbasol Championship, O’Hair withdrew during the first round, citing a neck injury, after making a triple bogey on his eighth hole of the day.

Having been unable to secure full-time status on the PGA Tour through his medical extension, starts will be difficult to come by for O’Hair. However, maybe that’s the kick in the rear end that gets this train moving in the right direction. He’s been solid enough in all aspects of his game and a slight uptick with his irons would go a long way for the four-time PGA Tour winner.

That very well could unfold this week at the 3M Open. With some similarities to Innisbrook, O’Hair should feel right at home in his tournament debut. With plenty of success in Tampa throughout his career, maybe that will translate to success in Minnesota. I’m not willing to wager it will lead to a victory, but a top-20 finish is surely a possibility and as such makes for my final prop bet for the 3M Open.