The PGA Championship is right around the corner, but first the PGA Tour will stop one state south of Oklahoma in McKinney, Texas. The 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson takes center stage this week as it will serve as the precursor for the second major championship of the year.
This edition of the historic tournament is set to take place at TPC Craig Ranch for the second consecutive year after the course made its public debut in 2021.
The AT&T Byron Nelson was previously held at TPC Four Seasons and made a stop at Trinity Forest as well. Now finding a home at TPC Craig Ranch, last year’s tournament was remembered for its conditions as numerous weather delays unfolded with heavy rains in the Dallas area for the entire week.
There is only one year of data to go with for TPC Craig Ranch, making statistical analysis more difficult, but one thing apparent is the name at the top of the oddsboard at Bodog.
Scottie Scheffler, a four-time winner this season, headlines the betting board at the AT&T Byron Nelson playing in his home state of Texas.
Our odds calculator gives the Texan, listed at +1000, a 9.09 percent chance to win his fifth tournament of the campaign. Scheffler has not played in an individual event since the Masters Tournament when he donned the green jacket for his first major title.
While he paired up with Ryan Palmer at the Zurich Classic, it is hard to take those results seriously given the team nature of the event in New Orleans.
AT&T Byron Nelson Odds
Odds as of May 10 at Bodog
Course and Tournament Information
The Tom Weiskopf design made its first appearance as the AT&T Byron Nelson host last season and drew rave reviews. It features wide fairways, larger than average greens, and a creek that intersects the property. The par 72 measures nearly 7,500 yards and played even longer in 2021 as wet, soggy conditions were the story of the week.
The course may have played longer, but because of the soft conditions, players were able to take advantage and honed in on their scoring clubs. Iron play played a crucial part in the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson and it is likely it will once again as it often is the most important aspect to predicting a tournament winner.
Not only will iron play be important, but more specifically long iron play as nearly 40 percent of all approach shots will come from outside 200 yards. With wide fairways and a long golf course, bombers who are considered strong iron players will be the target outright selections for the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson.
What Happened In Last Year’s AT&T Byron Nelson?
The 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson was a stop-and-go tournament and as such, birdies were plentiful in Texas. K.H. Lee became yet another first-time winner on the PGA Tour as he claimed victory, reaching 25 under for the week to win by three strokes.
The South Korean ranked ninth in SG: Putting, 24th in SG: Around-the-Green, second in SG: Approach, and 23rd in SG: Off-the-Tee. Not only did Lee perform adequately from tee to green, but he also had some success on another one of Tom Weiskopf’s golf courses.
Weiskopf is also responsible for TPC Scottsdale, host of the WM Phoenix Open every year. Lee finished second in the Arizona desert in the winter of 2021 to Brooks Koepka and clearly found a comfort level on such golf courses. That could provide another way in from an analysis perspective given the lack of data on TPC Craig Ranch.
Other courses, in addition to TPC Scottsdale, that may present correlating leaderboards include TPC Summerlin and TPC Southwind. While counterintuitive, those courses which feature smaller greens may be worth looking at as TPC Craig Ranch’s large greens will require precision iron play to set up birdie opportunities.
2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Picks
Hideki Matsuyama To Win (+2500)
The 2020 Masters champion is dealing with a neck injury, but by all accounts, he is back and fully healthy. He withdrew from the Valero Texas Open the last time he was in the Lone Star State, but he backed it up with a top-20 finish at the Masters where he looked to be back to his normal self.
He has not missed a cut since the 2021 Wyndham Championship and since then has collected a victory at the Zozo Championship and the Sony Open. Both of those were more difficult events, but Matsuyama’s tee-to-green prowess has the potential to propel him in a birdie fest.
While he has yet to collect his third win of the 2021-22 PGA Tour season, the results are encouraging. He continues to gain strokes on the field across the board and a return to bent grass greens should allow him to contend.
The man from Japan is a proven winner and a major champion and is mispriced solely because of the injury concern. Any of those questions should be squashed as it has now been a month since we have seen Matsuyama and surely his health has returned to 100 percent.
Joaquin Niemann To Win (+2500)
The young Chilean has not played a ton in 2022, but when he does, he tends to put his best foot forward. He kicked things off at the Farmers Insurance Open and followed it up with a breakthrough victory at the Genesis Invitational. It was the 23-year-old’s second career victory and he was able to come out on top in one of the best fields of the season.
He has since cooled off a little bit, but his tee-to-green numbers have held steady. He has gained strokes through the bag in each start this year with the exception of putting. Niemann has often done his best work with the putter when faced with bent grass greens, which TPC Craig Ranch features.
Niemann also enjoyed success on zoysia grass, featured at both Riviera and this week. He goes into the AT&T Byron Nelson off a 12th-place finish at the RBC Heritage where he was within three strokes of the lead at the 54-hole mark but was unable to put together a memorable Sunday round.
Seamus Power To Win (+5000)
The Irishman won at the Barbasol Championship last year and continued to ride this form into the fall swing of the 2021-22 season. He notched three consecutive top-21 finishes and nearly won his second title at the RSM Classic when he finished in a tie for fourth place behind Talor Gooch.
Power continued to ride this momentum into 2022 and finished inside the top 20 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and in a tie for third place at the Sony Open. He then commanded the 36-hole lead at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am by five strokes and wilted over the weekend, but battled to stay within the top 10 on the leaderboard.
He has since fallen off a little bit, missing cuts with some consistency, but I think TPC Craig Ranch should be a good fit for Power. He finished in a tie for ninth place last season and has continued to thrive off the tee. If his iron play can come alive, the rest of his game appears to be in a good spot for him to re-enter the winner’s circle.
Si Woo Kim To Win (+6600)
The South Korean is continuing to put together one of the most consistent seasons on the PGA Tour. Making another cut at the Wells Fargo Championship, the last instance of Kim missing the weekend came in October.
He is a proven winner and has thrived from tee to green for the entirety of 2022. The results have yet to really pop out, but the last time we saw Kim inside the top 20 came in the state of Texas. He finished in a tie for 18th at the Valero Texas Open where he finally gained strokes on the greens.
That will be the key for him this week and a return to bent grass putting surfaces will suit his game. His proximity from 200-plus yards will need to see some improvement, but if he does, he should contend for his first victory since the 2021 American Express.
Patton Kizzire To Win (+10000)
Death, taxes and Patton Kizzire in the state of Texas. The Auburn product was terrific in this state last season as he captured three top-11 finishes in three starts. The first came right here at TPC Craig Ranch where he finished in a tie for third place before doing the same in his next start at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
He is a top-10 iron player in this field and the wide-open nature of TPC Craig Ranch is perfect for a player like Kizzire. He is long, but wild off the tee, and his play at the WM Phoenix Open could be a leading indicator for success at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Kizzire finished inside the top 10 there earlier this season and gained nearly 10 strokes from tee to green in the process. He has won on the PGA Tour twice and could easily make it a third if his ball-striking experiences a bounce-back after it let him down in his last start at the RBC Heritage.
Golf is unique for many reasons, but one of them is the significant number of betting props available at weekly tournaments. The AT&T Byron Nelson is no different.
Sportsbooks are offering odds on things like whether there will be a hole-in-one, OVER/UNDERs on the winning score for the eventual champion and odds on which players from specific countries will have the lowest score, to name a few.
Like other sports, betting on props is a fun and unique way to enhance your golf gambling experience.
Live Betting is arguably one of the most exciting ways to bet on golf. If the team you placed a pre-tournament bet on is out of the running at any point during the AT&T Byron Nelson, you can bet on another team as the days go by and have another stake in the game.
If there are only a few men in the hunt on the final day, the odds likely won’t be significantly high, but your chances of winning are. We’ve seen this happen multiple times in the PGA Tour’s Return to Golf, as multiple tournaments have gone to a playoff.
These helpful pages will assist you in handicapping your golf wagers:
Doc's Picks Service
Need more winning picks? Get $60 worth of premium member picks from Doc’s Sports – a recognized leader and trusted name in sports handicapping since 1971.