I've got two MLB expert picks to finish the MLB regular season.
With a Mets vs Braves double-header to end the 2024 regular season, I've got one game pick and one playoff odds pick to cap off the campaign.
Here are my two MLB picks for September 30th:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Mets vs Braves UNDER 7.5 (-110) - Game 1
Mets vs Braves Odds -- Game Time 1:11 p.m. ET
My best bet of the day is the second one, fading Arizona's playoff chances. But, I'll give you a little Game 1 pick here, too.
Spencer Schwellenbach and Tylor Megill may not seem like the highest octane pitching matchup you've heard of, but these two starters enter Monday's big game on heaters. Megill has an ERA under 1.75 in his last five starts, allowing over one run just once in that stretch. The Mets have won his last five starts, too. Schwellenbach has been nearly as good, rocking a 3.47 ERA on the season and 2.73 mark in his last five starts. He's allowed over two earned runs in just one of his last seven starts.
The batter-vs-pitcher matchups are very much on our side here, too. Current Braves batters have a .293 OBP and .702 OPS against Megill. Mets have a .106 OBP and .280 OPS against Schwellenbach.
I'm also sure both teams will be using their big bullpen arms in this contest, at least if it's close, so I'll take the UNDER by a few runs.
MLB Expert Pick Today: DBacks To Miss Playoffs (-265)
Regardless of what happens, I don't see how Arizona makes the playoffs. The only way the Diamondbacks make the playoffs is if one of the Mets or Braves sweep this Monday double-header.
Whichever team wins Game 1 is going to bench their starting batters and swap out the pitching for a scrub, so I see nearly a 90% chance at a split. These -265 odds don't reflect that. So, sorry Arizona.
