The Los Angeles Clippers hit the road for just one game as they head to the Pepsi Center to meet the West-leading Denver Nuggets tonight. Los Angeles hosted Denver nearly three weeks ago and handed the Nuggets a 132-111 loss to even their season series at one win apiece. This is the first meeting between these two in Denver this season and the Nuggets are a 6-point favorite with the total Sportsbook at 226 points.
- The total has gone OVER in five of Denver’s last six games.
- Denver is 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.
- The total has gone OVER in three of Los Angeles’ last four games vs Denver.
Clippers vs Nuggets Game Center
Nuggets are unstoppable at home
Denver has been doing quite a bit of traveling recently with four of its last six games coming on the road, but it now returns to the safer grounds of the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets have one of the best home records in the Association this season, winning 16 of 19 games there, including their last 10 in a row.
One of the biggest reasons for success in the Mile High City has been their stifling defense that has limited visitors to just 101.7 ppg, the third-best home mark in the NBA. Offensively, they score 112.8 ppg at the Pepsi Center, which ranks smack dab in the middle of the league at 15 for home points scored per game. The Nuggets have taken their foot off the defensive pedal recently, surrendering an average of 109 ppg over their last 15 games. That’s still the 12th-fewest ppg allowed over that span, compared to their season average of 105.5 ppg.
Denver’s ability to limit its opponents’ rebounds has really kept them to low scores, notably giving up the seventh-fewest offensive boards per game (9.7) to minimize second-chance opportunities. On the offensive side of the ball, center Nikola Jokic has been on fire over the last 15 games, scoring the team high in nine of those games and averaging 24.3 ppg (five points higher than his season average). The Clippers are giving up the 10th-most points to opposing centers over that span at 22 ppg.
Clippers eye fourth win in a row
Los Angeles has been clicking recently, winning its last three games, but overall has won just eight of its last 15 games. The Clippers battled through a four-game losing slide in mid-December, tipping off against four straight playoff teams in Portland, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Toronto.
Over the last 15 games, LA is leading the league in scoring at 116.5 ppg, but that being said, its defense is surrendering the fourth-most ppg at 116.7. The Clippers are getting good looks that are leading to their offensive success. They’re taking the second-fewest three-point attempts at 24 but hitting 40.3 percent of those attempts, and are shooting 48.8 percent from the floor overall, the third-best percentage in the league.
Defensively over that span, they are allowing opponents to shoot 37.7 percent from beyond the arc, which is the fourth-highest percentage. They have turned the ball over an average of 15.6 times per game, the sixth-worst mark in the NBA, leading to their foes scoring 18.3 points per game off of turnovers. Lastly, LA is allowing the ninth-most offensive boards over those last 15 games and it is giving up the sixth-most second-chance points in the NBA at 13.9.
Should you be on the OVER?
Los Angeles and Denver have been strong OVER plays recently and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 226 points. The total has gone OVER in five of the Nuggets’ last six games with an average combined score of 227.67, while the Clippers have gone OVER 226 points in nine of their last 11 games with an average combined score of 237.18. Additionally, Denver and LA have gone OVER in three of their last four meetings with an average combined score of 234.75, including going OVER 226 in each of their last two meetings at the Pepsi Center. I think the OVER is coming through again tonight.
My take on LA vs Denver
I like the OVER 226 points. The Clippers are the highest-scoring team over the last 15 games but are allowing the fourth-most ppg. Meanwhile, Denver’s defense has been slipping a bit recently, giving up an average of 109 ppg over its last 15 games, which has led to it going OVER in five of its last six games. Additionally, these two teams tipped off 19 days ago and played to a combined score of 243. Lastly, the Clippers have gone OVER 226 points in nine of their last 11 games and I expect that to come through again tonight.
