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NBA Finals 2024 Expert Picks & Preview: Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 5

Our NBA team of Christopher Walder, Nick Holz, and David Caraviello is here throughout the 2024 Finals between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks offering up their moneyline, spread, and total expert picks, with the best-of-seven series shifting back to TD Garden on Monday as Boston looks to clinch its 18th title in franchise history. 

Let's take a look at all of their picks in what could be the last game of the 2024 postseason. 

NBA Finals Expert Pick Results

Christopher Walder6-23.64
Nick Holz2-3-1.18
David Caraviello1-3-2.09

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Game 5 Preview & Picks

Matchup Page: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET

Same-Game Parlay: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 5

Player Props: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 5

Dallas Mavericks+6.5 (-110)+220O 209.5 (-105)
Boston Celtics-6.5 (-110)-275U 209.5 (-115)

Christopher Walder's Pick: Dallas Mavericks +6.5 ATS (-110)

Friday's result in Game 4 certainly came out of left field, not because Dallas managed to extend the series being down 3-0 to Boston, but because of how the Western Conference champions went about handling their business. The Mavericks won by a staggering 38 points, which was the third-largest margin of victory in a Finals game ever behind the 1998 Chicago Bulls (vs. Utah Jazz, 96-54) and the 2008 Celtics (vs. Los Angeles Lakers, 131-92). 

Prior to Friday's outcome, the biggest win by a team in a Game 4 trailing 3-0 in a series was 21 points, so was the Mavericks' showcase a sign of things to come or were they simply delaying the inevitable?

Since 2003, teams down 3-1 in the Finals heading on the road for a Game 5 are just 4-4 covering the spread, although all four of those covers have come in the last five instances, including last year's Finals matchup between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets when Miami lost SU by five points to cover as eight-point underdogs.

We still don't know the status of Kristaps Porzingis moving forward in this series, as his presence would undoubtedly make a world of difference as Boston seeks to close things out on its home floor. The Celtics haven't dropped four in a row all year, so the odds of the Mavericks making history to hoist Larry O'Brien are extremely slim, but that doesn't mean they can't keep things interesting on Monday with a competitive effort and nothing more to lose.

David Caraviello's Pick: Boston Celtics ATS -6.5 (-110)

Friday night’s Dallas Massacre feels like a complete aberration, given how the results ran counter to everything else we’ve seen in these NBA Finals. The Mavericks have still failed to cover in three of the first four games in this series, including both of the first two games in Boston against lines similar to Monday’s Game 5 spread.

And Boston remains a ridiculous 15-3 in the playoffs, including outright wins in five straight at home. Start engraving the O’Brien.

Christopher Walder's Pick: UNDER 209.5 Total Points (-115)

We're not going to ruin a good thing by diverting from the script that is every single game of this series hitting the UNDER. Dallas failed to register at least 100 points through the first three games against the Celtics, while Boston still hasn't scored more than 107 points either. 

This series, paired with Game 4 versus the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals, is by far the longest stretch all season of the Celtics consecutively hitting UNDERs. Surprisingly, Dallas has actually outscored Boston by six points overall, with the 2013 Heat the last team to win the championship with a negative point differential. 

Nick Holz's Pick: Dallas Mavericks First Half Spread +4.5 (-130)

Other than a Game 1 blowout, the Dallas Mavericks have kept things close through two quarters in the NBA Finals. Dallas actually won the first half in both Games 3 and 4 and kept things within two points in Game 2.

I like the Mavs to come flying out of the gates again. With nothing to lose, the Mavericks should be brimming with confidence after shooting the lights out in Game 4. Dallas outrebounded Boston 51-38 in Game 4 and have outscored the Celtics by a total score of 151-105 over the last five quarters. Expect that momentum to carry over to the beginning of tonight's contest. 

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