NBA Player Props Today: Eye Durant's Scoring Prop vs Nuggets

Here are four expert NBA player prop bets to close out what's been a prosperous week for our overall units, including a scoring prop for Phoenix Suns All-Star Kevin Durant (-130) in the Mile High City against the Denver Nuggets on Friday, March 7, 2025.

Kevin Durant OVER 25.5 Points vs. Nuggets (-130 at Sportsbook)

Preview: Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET

The organization's inability to move Durant ahead of February's trade deadline paired with the strong likelihood of him being shipped this summer anyway hasn't hindered the 36-year-old's ability to continue playing elite-level basketball since the All-Star break. Phoenix's only real hope of sneaking into the Western Conference play-in tournament is if Durant drags the team across the finish line, and even that may not be enough.

In his eight appearances since Feb. 20, Durant has reached an OVER on 25.5 points five times and is just dropped 34 points in a 23-point comeback victory over the Los Angeles Clippers on March 4. Now against the Nuggets specifically, with Friday marking the Suns' fourth and final meeting with them this season, in the two games he suited up for, Durant averaged 25 points on 20 shot attempts wile contributing 23 and 27 points, respectively. 

A 23-point output wouldn't cut it here, though, and even 27 would be pushing it. Phoenix is in desperation mode, though, and while it's a 7.5-point underdog at Ball Arena, we have seen the Suns prevail over Denver once already this campaign, and Durant would need to be the offensive catalyst behind an upset victory here. 

Naji Marshall OVER 17.5 Points vs. Grizzlies (-110 at Sportsbook)

Preview: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. ET

The Dallas Mavericks' skeleton crew is down to just a handful of bodies, but absence on the depth chart with the likes of Kyrie Irving (ACL), Anthony Davis (thigh), Dereck Lively II (ankle), P.J. Washington (ankle), and Daniel Gafford (MCL) all hurt means greater opportunities for those who remain, primarily 6-foot-7 forward Naji Marshall. 

He's averaging 20 points on 54.8-percent shooting in 31 minutes over his last two games for Dallas, and has gone OVER 17.5 points each time. Marshall has scored nine more points than anyone else on the roster during this stretch, and now gets a look at a Memphis Grizzlies defense that's fallen off a cliff since All-Star Weekend allowing 120.2 points per 100 possessions to opponents (26th). 

The 27-year-old wing had 16 points versus Memphis back on Jan. 6 and that was with more available talent surrounding him. The optics and circumstances have obviously drastically changed since then, with Marshall one of the better options still left standing. Former Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. remains out for the Grizzlies, as well, and it's not like they were defending well as of late with him anyway. 

Ja'Kobe Walter OVER 13.5 Points vs. Jazz (-104 at Sportsbook)

Preview: Utah Jazz vs. Toronto Raptors, 7:30 p.m. ET

Ja'Kobe Walter's game-winning 3-pointer against the Orlando Magic on Wednesday was undoubtedly the greatest moment of his young career with the Toronto Raptors thus far, and a sign of faith from head coach Darko Rajakovic that he could succeed in high-pressure moments, although he did sit most of his key guys down the stretch. The follow-up will be key, though, and the lowly Utah Jazz visiting Scotiabank Arena should put a smile on Walter's face for what he can potentially produce.

Walter has only scored in double figures once in his last nine appearances for Toronto, but the one time that he did was in that aforementioned game versus Orlando when he had 17 points and got to the charity stripe eight times. His teammates Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett will not be playing on Friday for rest purposes, and whether the Raptors want to admit it or not, the blueprint moving forward was to play the younger guys like Walter more minutes anyway as a means of tanking. 

The Jazz are the worst defensive squad in basketball giving up 118.5 points per 100 possessions, and no opponent has scored fewer than 112 points against them since Feb. 1. Walter will once again start and should be one of Toronto's top point-getters alongside Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley.

Stephon Castle OVER 19.5 Points + Assists vs. Kings (-112 at Sportsbook)

Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. ET

The lingering taste of two putrid showings by San Antonio Spurs rookie Stephon Castle against the New Orleans Pelicans once Victor Wembanyama was announced to be out for the remainder of the season have been quickly erased by a productive four-game stretch.

The betting favorite for Rookie of the Year is leading the Spurs in scoring as a reserve over the last four games with 23.8 points on 50-percent shooting to go along with his 5.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.5 steals. Those are the type of numbers many envisioned him having with Wembanyama no longer in the picture, but after scoring just six points across two meetings with the Pelicans, it was easy to be disheartened. 

With his combination prop for points and assists set at 19.5 against the Sacramento Kings, which is a number Castle has toppled each time during this run, including the last time he played the Kings on Dec. 6, there's enough there to justify hopping back on the bandwagon.  

NBA Best Player Prop Trends Today

Michael Porter Jr. OVER 6.5 Rebounds vs. Suns (-150)

Porter has been a HOOVER on the glass lately, gobbling up an average of 9.3 rebounds per game over his 11 contests. Porter has gone OVER 6.5 rebounds 10 times during that span. If you go back further, Porter has gone OVER this line in 13 of his last 20 contests, so not as reliable there, but I still like this lower 6.5 line at FanDuel as most sportsbooks have the total at 7.5.

Porter has cooked this prop lately, and the Suns yield a good chunk of rebounds. Phoenix surrenders 45.1 RPG as a team, which ranks 21st in the NBA. The Suns also allow 7.72 rebounds per game to small forwards, ranking 22nd.

It's tough to do better than this for a modest -150 bet. With this value, you know what you're getting, and Porter should stay consistent on Friday night. 

- Ethan Diamandas