Timberwolves vs. Warriors Picks & Odds: March 13, 2026| Odds Shark

Both the Minnesota Timberwolves (-6, -106) and Golden State Warriors (+6, -114) enter Friday night's meeting on respective three-game losing streaks, with the latter's being less severe as Golden State is essentially locked into a play-in tournament spot. Minnesota, on the other hand, could fall into that bracket as the current No. 6 seed in the Western Conference with the current trajectory it's on.

Here's an expert pick and player prop for this matchup at the Chase Center on March 13, 2026, including an UNDER (-126) on a scoring prop (18.5 points) for a three-time All-Star big man.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors Odds Tonight

Matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 p.m. ET

Team	Spread	Money	Total
Minnesota Timberwolves	-6 (-106)	-220	O 224.5 (-106)
Golden State Warriors	+6 (-114)	+184	U 224.5 (-114)

Timberwolves vs. Warriors Expert Pick Tonight

Golden State Warriors +6 (-114)

A stretch in which the Timberwolves prevailed in five-straight games and eight of nine, spanning from Feb. 9 through March 5, feels like eons ago after dropping each of the last three games by at least 14 points and two by 25 or more. In their defense, all three losses came against three of the hottest teams in basketball (Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers, and Los Angeles Clippers), but that's not exactly encouraging when jockeying for position in the West with just over a month of the regular season remaining. Minnesota is 6-4 since the All-Star break, but sits just 21st in offense (111.4 points per 100 possessions) and 20th in defense (116.4 points allowed per 100 possessions) during this stretch. Being six-point favorites on the spread is more reflective of Golden State than anything, and doesn't necessarily mean a cover is forthcoming on Friday. As favorites by at least that amount in 2025-26, the Timberwolves are just 13-23 ATS with a 24-12 record in the win-loss column. They were favored by 6.5 points on March 7 versus Orlando, but ended up getting blown at home, 119-92.

The Warriors are just 2-6 both SU and ATS whenever an underdog at home this season, and 1-3 on both fronts when the spread is 6.5 points or more. They've at least covered each of the last three times they've been underdogs by this number or more, and that included two victories over quality opponents in the Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets. Stephen Curry remains out of the lineup with a knee injury, but his absence has allowed head coach Steve Kerr to go deep in his bag and expand the roles of some seldom-used names. Since the All-Star break, nine players have averaged 10 or more points per game, and basically everyone who has taken the floor has seen double-digit minutes.

The competitive nature that Golden State has demonstrated as of late, even in defeat to weaker competition like the Chicago Bulls and Utah Jazz, should take them far here against a vulnerable visitor in Minnesota. The 6.5-point edge hasn't been a lucky one, providing enough breathing room for the Warriors to cover in their backyard, even though the Timberwolves should rightfully be favored on the moneyline with the superior roster.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors Prop Tonight

Julius Randle UNDER 18.5 Points (-126 at DraftKings)

Julius Randle is averaging 13 points on 40 percent shooting during this ongoing skid for Minnesota, and is playing near identical minutes (26.6) to that of his backup Naz Reid (25.7). His poor scoring numbers go well beyond this three-game sample size, though, as Randle has only contributed 20 or more points once in his last 10 appearances overall. The 31-year-old forward did drop 27 on the Warriors the last time these sides met in the Bay Area on Dec. 12, but averaged just 14.5 points in back-to-back games on Jan. 25 and 26 at the Target Center.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors Prop Trends

Naz Reid has exceeded 9.5 points + assists in 10-straight games on the road (16.5 points + assists/game average).
The OVER hit in six of the Golden State Warriors' last seven games at home.
Donte DiVincenzo has failed to exceed 18.5 points + rebounds + assists in four of his last five games (14.6 points + rebounds + assists/game average).
Gui Santos has exceeded 1.5 1Q rebounds in seven of his last eight games (2.8 1Q rebounds/game average).