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NBA FINALS: Are the Warriors In Must-Win Territory For Game 4?

NBA Finals Raptors vs Warriors Game 4 Betting Odds June 7, 2019

The Golden State Warriors are not used to trailing in a series, let alone the NBA Finals, but they will likely rip off the plastic and take their toys out of the box for Game 4 vs the Toronto Raptors. The Warriors used Game 3 as a maintenance game for Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant and while Durant will be held out for Game 4, Thompson is expected back at Oracle Arena as they try to even the series at 2-2.

Oddsmakers must feel the Warriors will take Game 4 as they opened the Dubs as 5.5-point favorites (now moved to -4.5 with the news of Durant’s absence) with a total of 216 (since moved to 215).

Raptors vs Warriors Game Center

Standout Stats

  • The Raptors’ offense has usually sputtered in road playoff games but came out in a big way in Game 3. The Raps shot 52.4 percent from the field and 44.7 percent from behind the arc for their best shooting performance of the series. The Raptors had six players score in double figures, with Danny Green hitting six three-pointers in the victory.
  • The Warriors may have gotten 47 points from Stephen Curry but the supporting cast did not hold up its end of the bargain in Game 3. The Warriors’ bench players combined for 26 points and shot 37 percent from the floor. DeMarcus Cousins was especially poor on defense and only managed four points after a brilliant Game 2 in Toronto.
  • While the Warriors are 6-3 SU in nine postseason games at Oracle Arena, they’ve only covered the spread in three of those contests. The Raptors, on the other hand, have now won back-to-back games at Oracle but historically are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 in Oakland.
  • Klay Thompson sat out Game 3 and while it’s likely he’ll play in Game 4, the Warriors have not fared well when he sits. In their last five without the sharpshooter, they’re 0-5 ATS.
  • Stephen Curry has owned the Raptors in his career, averaging 29.8 points in 20 games vs Toronto, which is his highest average against any team in the NBA. In his last eight against the Dinos, he’s averaged 31.7 points per game but has only shot 27-for-74 from behind the arc (35 percent).
  • Both teams have been fairly consistent with first-quarter spreads in the postseason as the Warriors are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 and the Raptors have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • There’s a ton of OVER trends coming into Game 4 as it has hit in eight of the last 11 games in this matchup (average combined score: 231.4), in nine of the Warriors’ last 13 games as a favorite and in 13 of their 20 playoff games in the postseason.

My Best Bets for Raptors vs Warriors

Warriors -4.5 Full-Game Spread

Warriors -2.5 First-Half Spread

Warriors -1.5 First-Quarter Spread

Oh, did you think I was going to change it up and take the Raptors? Guess again. The Warriors threw Game 3 so they could be rested and ready for Game 4 and I think this is the game where Golden State puts its foot on the neck of the dinosaur. The Warriors should have Klay Thompson back for Game 4 and with him in the lineup, the Dubs should be able to play much better defensively on the perimeter. 

Another concerning aspect was how much the Raptors struggled to put this short-handed team away even though it was missing two all-stars. The Warriors were within striking distance for the majority of Game 3 and while Toronto’s defense was strong in the half court, it still allowed Golden State to get 13 offensive rebounds and 36 points in the paint. Take the Raptors as an underdog if you want but I see the Warriors dominating this game from front to back.