Miami Vs Ohio State Odds & Picks: Methodical Play In Cotton Bowl

The No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1 SU, 10-2-1 ATS) will open their College Football Playoff run against the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS) at the Cotton Bowl in Arlington. As per our bowl odds page, the Buckeyes enter as 9.5-point favorites at FanDuel, the largest spread of the quarterfinals, with the total set at 42.5 points. Ohio State is coming off a 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten championship, but still reigns as the nation's top defense. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes stunned the Aggies in the first round, 10-3, at Kyle Field. The winner of this matchup will advance to the CFP Semifinal Fiesta Bowl.

Miami vs ohio state Odds

Matchup Page: Miami (FL) vs Ohio State, Dec. 31, 7:30 pm ET

Miami vs Ohio state Odds
Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Miami (FL) Hurricanes	+9.5 (-105)	+290	OVER 42.5 (-105)
Ohio State Buckeyes	-9.5 (-115)	-385	UNDER 42.5 (-115)

Miami vs ohio state Pick

The Hurricanes earned their Cotton Bowl spot by suffocating Texas A&M 10-3 on the road in the first round, holding the Aggies to just 89 rushing yards and forcing two picks and a fumble. Despite playing in one of college football's loudest and most hostile environments, the Canes defense recorded seven sacks and nine tackles for loss. That defensive performance pushed Miami to No. 6 nationally in scoring defense (13.8 PPG) and against the run (86.6 YPG), proving this team really is getting hot at the right time.

Offensively, Miami isn’t flashy, but it’s productive. Carson Beck is consistently completing 74.3% of his passes. Against the Aggies, he stayed methodical by tossing just over 103 yards (70%), trying to avoid adding to his 10 interceptions this year. When the Hurricanes needed a closer, it was Mark Fletcher Jr. who delivered, pocketing a whopping 172 rushing yards on just 17 carries. Miami averages 31.2 points (top-25) and 402.6 yards per game (top 50) and converts on nearly 92% of red-zone trips.

Ohio State, national championship favorites, counters with the most intimidating defense in the country by every standard. The Buckeyes allow just 8.8 points and 217.5 yards per game, both best in the nation, while also ranking No. 1 in pass defense (133.8 YPG) and No. 5 against the run (83.7 YPG).

Ohio State’s loss to Indiana wasn’t about a lack of talent; it was about how the Buckeyes playing a bit too conservatively. It was the O-Line allowing five sacks that was constantly putting the offense in tough positions. Even in that loss, Julian Sayin completed 78.4% of his passes this season with 3,323 yards and 31 touchdowns. He’s throwing to one of the best receivers in the country in Jeremiah Smith (1,086 yards, seventh-most), with TE Carnell Tate a viable option and RB Bo Jackson carrying the load on the ground (1,035 yards). All that depth is helping the Buckeyes score 32 points per game.

Miami’s defensive line will make plays, but consistently scoring on a defense that gives up just 8.2 points per game is a massive challenge. OSU is avergaing 31.6 seconds per play, the longest mark in the nation, while Miami is also nearly 30 seconds. Both are also recording over 33 minutes of possession per game. With Beck tallying up double-digit interceptions, Sayin throwing picks in back-to-back meetings and both defenses applying heavy pressure, expect both teams to play it safe to avoid risk of nail-in-the-coffin turnover. The UNDER has cashed in four of Ohio State's last five and three of Miami's last four.

Miami vs Ohio State Pick: UNDER 42.5 Points (-115)

*Pick made December 22nd

Miami vs ohio state Prop Bet

Total Field Goals OVER 1.5 In First Half (+105 at DraftKings)

This game is point to a "take what you can get" type of matchup. Miami's Carter Davis has has gone OVER 4.5 kicking points in five of his last six games, four of those performances had field goals come in the first half. In four of Ohio State's last five outings, its opponents have needed to settle for field goals to get on the board in the first half. There was three field goals in the first half in the Big Ten Championship and four in the Rivalry Week meeting vs. Michigan.

Miami vs ohio state Betting Trends

According to our NCAAF database, the UNDER has hit in the two times when Ohio State was favored by 9.5-points this season
The UNDER has hit in seven of the last 10 Cotton Bowl games
Ohio State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. top 25 scoring defenses
Per Outlier, the UNDER hit in five of Ohio State's last six games vs. top 25 scoring defenses