North Texas vs San Diego State Odds & Picks: Take New Mexico Bowl OVER

North Texas (11-2) and San Diego State (9-3) play in this year's New Mexico Bowl. Both teams are looking to rebound from losses. The Mean Green are 3.5-point favorites, and the total for this game is 54.5 points. That total could be surpassed by a large margin with North Texas' No. 1 scoring offense.

North Texas vs San Diego State Odds

Matchup Page: North Texas vs San Diego State, Dec. 27, 5:45 pm ET

North Texas vs San Diego State Odds
Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
North Texas	-3.5 (+100)	-152	OVER 54.5 (-105)
San Diego State	+3.5 (-122)	+126	UNDER 54.5 (-115)

North Texas vs San Diego State Pick

OVER 54.5, -105 at FanDuel

I was already leaning toward the over before I saw the odds for this game. Getting -105 odds for the over, rather than something closer to -110, only helped. The OVER is appealing in large part thanks to North Texas' offense, which led the FBS with 44.8 points per game. The Mean Green scored 50 or more points on seven occasions, and they didn't score fewer than 31 points until facing Tulane in the American Conference Championship Game, where they still put up a respectable 21 points against the Green Wave.

North Texas is led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who led the American with a 70.2% completion rate, 31 touchdowns, and 14.1 yards per completion. Even more impressively, he leads the nation in passing yards (4,129) and yards per attempt (9.9). The signal-caller added another five scores as a runner. Mestemaker, wide receiver Wyatt Young (63/1,209/10 receiving line), and running back Caleb Hawkins, who rushed for 1,236 yards and scored an FBS-best 23 rushing touchdowns and 26 scrimmage scores, should be able to lead the Mean Green to plenty of points.

San Diego State's offense isn't quite as prolific, scoring 24.7 points per game. Running back Lucky Sutton is their main source of offense, leading the Mountain West with 1,237 rushing yards. The Aztecs' defense could be cause for concern, because they've only given up 12.6 PPG, the fifth-best mark in the country, but their schedule was loaded with underwhelming opponents. That included five opponents that finished the season with four or fewer wins. Plus, a pair of opponents proved that San Diego State's defense is fallible. Washington State, which ranked 112th in the country with 21.6 PPG, scored 36 points, and Hawaii (63rd with 28.5 PPG) put up 38 on the Aztecs. The Mean Green will still need to be aware of playmakers like corner Chris Johnson (four interceptions, including two pick-6s) and defensive end Trey White (seven sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss), though.

Finally, we have North Texas' over track record backing us up. While San Diego State only cashed three overs this season, the Mean Green's overs went 9-4, according to our college football database. The only games that North Texas didn't cash the over in had totals of 66.5, 68.5, and 63.5 twice. Even then, the Mean Green still hit the over five times when the total was in the 60s.

*Pick made Dec. 20th at 12:46 pm ET

North Texas vs San Diego State Prop Pick

Props haven't yet been released for the New Mexico Bowl. Check back later for our best New Mexico Bowl prop pick.

North Texas vs San Diego State Betting Trends

North Texas cashed the OVER nine times this season, per our college football database. The only unders they hit had totals of 63.5 or higher
North Texas' offense leads the nation in scoring (44.8 PPG) and scored 50+ points seven times.
North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker has thrown for at least two touchdown passes in all but three games this year.