Virginia vs Missouri Odds & Picks: Back Mizzou In Gator Bowl

This year's Gator Bowl features 10-3 Virginia and 8-4 Missouri. The Tigers' last game was a win over Arkansas, while the Cavaliers are looking to rebound from a loss to Duke in the ACC Championship Game. The Tigers are 4.5-point favorites despite their worse record, and the total for this contest is 45.5 points. Missouri has been lights out as a favorite of at least four points in recent years, and I expect them to pick up another victory in that role.

Virginia vs Missouri Odds

Matchup Page: Virginia vs Missouri, Dec. 27, 7:30 pm ET

Virginia Vs Missouri Odds
Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Virginia	+4.5 (-114)	+160	OVER 45.5 (-104)
Missouri	-4.5 (-106)	-194	UNDER 45.5 (-118)

Virginia Vs Missouri Pick

Missouri ML, -194 at FanDuel

These two teams match up well with one another. They both averaged 32.2 PPG on offense, and they finished with very similar yardage outputs, too, with Missouri putting up 429.3 per contest compared to Virginia's 426.3. The Tigers have the advantage on defense, though. Mizzou's unit allowed slightly fewer points per game (19.4 vs 20.5), but did notably better from a yardage perspective, conceding 274.8 yards per game while the Cavaliers allowed 313.3 per contest.

The Tigers have been excellent as favorites of at least four points this season. Missouri is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS as a favorite of at least four points, according to our college football database. In fact, the Tigers are historically excellent when they are favored by at least four, going an absurd 30-0 in their last 30 such games. That stretch dates back to the 2020 season. While that straight-up record is amazing, the Tigers haven't been quite as prolific against the spread. They've gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games and 17-13 in that 30-game run. That fact, combined with Virginia's comparable offense, is why I'm taking the moneyline and not the spread.

Expect both teams to lean on their workhorse running backs as much as they can. Virginia's J'Mari Taylor led the ACC with 1,062 rushing yards and 15 scrimmage touchdowns this year, and Missouri's Ahmad Hardy paced the SEC with 1,560 rushing yards and scored 16 touchdowns en route to All-American honors. While Taylor is a good player in his own right, this is another edge that the Tigers hold over the Cavaliers. Plus, Missouri's superior defense stands a better chance at limiting Taylor than Virginia's does at slowing down Hardy. Missouri defensive lineman Zion Young (15 tackles for loss) should help in that effort, and Damon Wilson II (nine sacks) could wind up making impact plays if the Cavaliers have to abandon the run game late.

*Pick made Dec. 20th at 2:00 pm ET

Virginia vs Missouri Prop Pick

Props haven't yet been released for the Gator Bowl. Check back later for our best Gator Bowl prop pick.

Virginia vs Missouri Betting Trends

Missouri is 30-0 in its last 30 games as a favorite of at least four points, including 7-0 this season, per our college football database.
Virginia is 4-6 in its last 10 games as an underdog of at least four points, per our college football database.
Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy has totaled at least 100 rushing yards in eight games this season.