Super Bowl 59 Odds & Picks

Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl 59 Odds & Picks: Back Kansas City to Make History

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs meet Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles as both teams chase football immortality at Super Bowl 59. The war for the Lombardi Trophy marks the second time in three years Kansas City and Philadelphia have met in the big game with KC taking the last meeting 38-35.

Kansas City defeated the Buffalo Bills 32-29 in a thrilling AFC Championship game to advance to their fifth Super Bowl in six years. While the Eagles put up a dominant performance in their 55-23 demolition of the Washington Commanders.

With the stage set, Sportsbook has the Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites and the total set at 48.5 points.

Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl 59 Odds

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles, February 9th, 6:30 pm ET

Chiefs vs Eagles Odds
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Kansas City Chiefs-1.5 (-105)-120O 48.5 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles+1.5 (-115)+100U 48.5 (-110)

Odds as of February 9th at Sportsbook

Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl 59 Picks

Chiefs -1.5 (-105) at Sportsbook

Patrick Mahomes has been an NFL starter for seven seasons, and the worst finish of his career is losing in overtime in the AFC Championship game. Mahomes' greatest trait is his unflinching confidence and poise in the game's biggest moments. We've seen him navigate muddled pockets, make outstanding plays with his legs, and conjure the unfathomable over and over again in the clutch. 

Mahomes dropback success rate (64.7%) and EPA per dropback (+21.5) in the AFC Championship were his highest numbers of the season. He's trailed in the fourth quarter of nine playoff games, and has come back to win six and forced overtime in two others. Even more astonishingly, when down by 1-8 points in the fourth quarter or overtime, Mahomes has completed 40-of-56 passes for 552 yards, five touchdowns with no interceptions for a 132.2 passer rating. He's even added a touchdown run for good measure, and the Chiefs have scored a touchdown on 13 of 14 drives. 

Barring maybe Joe Montana and Tom Brady, Mahomes is the greatest clutch postseason performer in NFL history. And even that is now up for debate. Furthermore, Patrick Mahomes is the only quarterback to hold a winning record when trailing in the fourth quarter in NFL history, he's now 27-26. 

Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and the Eagles offense will present its own set of problems for Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs defense to solve. After all, Philadelphia became the first team in NFL history for rush for seven touchdowns in a playoff game against the Washington Commanders. Since Week 10, the Eagles lead the league in defensive EPA by a wide margin. Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith and company have been dominant all-year long. 

But, Hurts put together one of the all-time best quarterbacking performances in Super Bowl history back in Super Bowl 57, and still lost the game. The second-round draft pick threw for 304 yards and a score, while rushing for 70 and three more, with a two-point conversion for good measure. That monstrous display will be tough to top. 

Regardless, Kansas City has won an NFL record 17 straight one-possession games - dating all the way back to 2023. That falls squarely onto elite level coaching and on the field execution. Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo are one heck of a coaching duo. When the going got tough in the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship game, Spags sent a timely blitz that befuddled the Bills. Finally, when the Chiefs needed a first down to ice the game, Reid had the perfect play-call ready to rumble. 

I'm backing the dynamic duo of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to pull out another fourth quarter victory over the Eagles, and cement their place in NFL lore. 

Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl 59 News

This is where the going really gets tough for Philadelphia. Starting center Cam Jurgens missed most of the NFC Championship game with a back injury, but should be good to go for Super Bowl 59. On top of that, guard Landon Dickerson has a knee injury and could barely walk off the field. The Eagles may need old friend Jason Kelce to put down his commentator headset and strap on the pads for one last ride. 

Even more concerningly, Jalen Hurts is clearly operating at less than a 100%. He's been hampered by a knee injury and isn't running with the same burst. Hurts can still move, but if he doesn't have the same ability to cut and evade blitzing defenders, Spags will make mince meat of the Eagles offense in Super Bowl 59. Keep in mind, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Lane Johnson and Quinyon Mitchell also missed practice time in the leadup to the NFC Championship.

News has broken that star Eagles' defensive tackle Jalen Carter is battling an illness ahead of Super Bowl 59. The former Georgia star missed Super Bowl media availability and was a limited participant in practice. Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith, and Kenneth Gainwell were also limited. 

With no injuries of note, the war of attrition is firmly on the Chiefs side. 

Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl 59 Props

Kareem Hunt OVER 42.5 Rushing Yards (-128) at Sportsbook

Kareem Hunt has been a lifesaver for the Chiefs offense this season. He's stepped right back into his old role and thrived. Isiah Pacheco has been wholly ineffective since returning from a broken leg earlier this season. As such, I expect Hunt to see the majority of work in the Super Bowl. 

Hunt took 17 carries for 64 tough yards and a score against a Buffalo. I expect the Eagles menacing defensive line to see a heavy dose of the hard-charging Hunt coming downhill. Bet his Super Bowl 59 rushing yardage OVER 45.5. 

Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl 59 Betting Trends

  • Kansas City defeated Philadelphia 38-35 in Super Bowl 57
  • The Kansas City Chiefs are 13-0 in their last 13 games as a favorite
  • The Philadelphia Eagles are 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games vs. top 10 scoring defenses
  • Kansas City is 18-2 SU in their last 20 games
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