The Over Looks Good as the Bucs Host the Browns

Jameis Winston made his first start of the season as quarterback, and came a few yards short of a victory, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers dropped their third straight game. The Bucs (-3) look to stop their losing skid at home against the Cleveland Browns (+3) in their only home contest amid a five-game stretch. Despite the high-scoring numbers in every Tampa Bay game, the total for this contest was set at just 49.5 points.

Browns vs Buccaneers Game Center

WHY I LIKE THE OVER AT 49.5 POINTS

Simply put, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers score a lot of points, and they also give up a lot of points.

Tampa’s offensive output this season: 48, 27, 27, 10, 29. The only outlier there was against the Chicago Bears and superhuman defensive monster Khalil Mack.

For comparison, Tampa’s defensive “resistance:” 40, 21, 30, 48, 34.

Whether it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston, the Bucs have not had an issue throwing the ball. They lead the NFL in passing yards per game (368.4) and average 28.2 points per game.

Their opponents, the Cleveland Browns, have found new offensive life with rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield, and Tampa Bay also yields the most passing yards per game in the NFL as well.

What does this spell? A classic shootout, with a lot of passing, a lot of yards and a lot of points. The total for a Tampa Bay game has been UNDER 57 points only once, while Browns games have gone OVER in two of their last three.

A total of 49.5 seems too low, and I’m willing to bet — a lot — that it’s way too low on Sunday again.

BAKER GETS A REALITY CHECK

Every young player gets a “Welcome to the NFL” moment, and Browns rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield got his in Week 6.

Facing the Los Angeles Chargers, with a shortage of healthy wide receivers and a struggling offensive line, Mayfield endured his worst game in his short professional career.

His receivers struggled to get open, and the Chargers’ pressure gave Mayfield little to no time in the pocket. The result was Mayfield completing less than 50 percent of his passes, throwing two interceptions and being sacked five times en route to a 38-14 blowout loss.

For the second straight week, Mayfield has been under heavy pressure all game, and it has led to back-to-back low offensive totals for Cleveland. Things will get better, likely starting in Week 7 — Tampa Bay has the fourth-fewest sacks in the NFL, with just nine all season.

Giving Mayfield a comfortable pocket, and thus giving his receivers more time to get open, will lead to what is likely to be a rebound game for the Browns offense, further ensuring that the OVER is a smart play.

THE IMMOVABLE RUN GAME VS THE UNSTOPPABLE RUN DEFENSE

For as dynamic as the Buccaneers’ passing game has been, their running game has been equally pathetic.

Tampa Bay currently ranks 31st in the NFL with 80.2 rushing yards per game, 29th with 3.6 yards per game and dead last with just 111 rushing attempts and only one rushing touchdown.

Peyton Barber has averaged 3.7 yards per carry on 63 attempts, while rookie Ronald Jones has struggled even more, averaging just 2.9 yards on his 11 carries. The high-scoring games are nice, but if Tampa wants to stop a three-game losing skid, it needs to give the defense a rest and control the clock a little bit better. The best way to do that? Make the running game a factor.

Week 7 provides the Bucs that opportunity, as they face a Cleveland Browns defense that gives up the fourth-most rushing yards per game in the NFL (138.2), has allowed more than 100 rushing yards in five of its six games and just got torched for 246 yards on the ground last week by the Chargers.

Something has to give in this matchup of an anemic rushing offense against a porous run defense, but if the Buccaneers can’t find a way to run the ball Sunday, they may never be able to get things right this season.

If they can gain traction on the ground, however, it could go a long way to not only covering the 3-point spread but giving them a much-needed victory.