Since the retirement of Peyton Manning, it’s been a bit of a slog for the Denver Broncos. Denver has missed the playoffs each of the last three seasons while finishing with a combined 20-28 SU record in that span.
But as bad as they have looked at times since they last appeared at Super Bowl 50, the one thing that didn’t change is how consistent they’ve been in September.
The Broncos are one of the best September moneyline bets in the NFL with an excellent 19-5 SU record since the start of the 2012 season while going 7-2 SU in the last three seasons since Manning retired.
Cash in on the Broncos at Mile High Stadium
One of the reasons why the Denver Broncos have such a good record in September is they’ve taken care of business at home. The Broncos have won an astounding 14 straight home games in the Sportsbook month of the season dating back to Week 3 of 2012.
Obviously, having Peyton Manning as your quarterback and a stout defense that went to two Super Bowls should take the majority of the credit for this win streak but he retired in 2016. The likes of Trevor Siemian and Case Keenum have filled in those big shoes behind center and the Broncos keep emerging victorious with wins over the Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, LA Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks and Oakland Raiders over the last two seasons.
September Matchups for the Broncos
The Broncos are scheduled to play the Raiders, Bears, Packers and Jaguars for the month of September. We’re going to put the cart before the horse and I’m going to make picks for each game:
Week 1 @ Raiders
The Broncos should win this game. With Joe Flacco at quarterback, it will be a significant improvement compared to Case Keenum or when they had to go with Paxton Lynch at QB. There’s too much turmoil with the Raiders to fully trust them to win, even at home. With the spread at a pick’em, I’ll be taking the Broncos moneyline.
Week 2 vs Bears
I think this is a sneaky matchup where you can get real value on the Broncos moneyline because they will likely be home underdogs vs a Bears squad that some have picked to go to the Super Bowl. We’ll have to see how Week 1 goes vs the Raiders but if there are no key injuries, I like the Broncos to win outright. The Bears offense is suspect and the elevation at Mile High Stadium could neuter some of their offensive creativity.
Week 3 @ Packers
As much credit as I’d like to give to the Broncos, this is not a game that I would back them, even with the spread. I know Green Bay has struggled over the last two seasons and dropped some winnable games at Lambeau Field, but I can’t endorse a Broncos pick against the Packers at this stage until we know more information.
Week 4 vs Jaguars
This is another value spot for Denver as I predict they’ll be favored by 3 points or less against Jacksonville. The Jaguars offense may have improved but I’m not sold on Nick Foles being the savior for the Jags. This will likely be a hard-fought game mainly because of how solid both defenses are but I will likely be backing the Broncos in this matchup.
So, there you have it. I expect the Broncos to go 3-1 SU in their four games in September and 2-0 SU for their two home games at Mile High Stadium. And based on how they’ve performed in the Sportsbook month for the last six seasons, this doesn’t seem like a far-fetched prediction.
Make sure to check out our betting preview of the Broncos vs Raiders for Monday Night Football before placing your bets.