Odds Shark Top Sportsbooks
*Terms and Conditions apply to all bonus offers on this website. Visit operator for details.

The Pick Six: Divisional Round Edition

The Pick Six: Divisional Round NFL Betting January 10

Double doink may be the most memorable play from the wild-card games in the NFL this past weekend but it was the underdogs that really became the story. Underdogs went 4-0 against the spread and, spoiler alert, that’s likely where I’m laying my money this weekend.

I went 2-3-1 last week with the Seahawks and Ravens kicking me in the groin but still ended up making money due to the Colts moneyline pick. Sometimes when you have a true conviction about a team, it’s just better to take them straight up and get the extra profit.

That’s why I looooooovvvvve the underdogs this weekend because I think each game is essentially a pick’em and to get extra points in tightly contested battles is something I’m happy to scoop up. It’s also worth noting that underdogs are 14-1 ATS over the last 15 NFL playoff games. Below you’ll see why I make the case for each underdog this weekend and why you should wager on them too.

So, without further ado, here are my six favorite NFL picks for the divisional round:

The Pick: Colts +5 vs Chiefs

Winners of 10 of their last 11 games, the Colts are the hottest team in the NFL and it’s not even close. Indy’s defense has been excellent over the last six weeks by holding teams to an average of 13 points per game and suffocated the Texans on their home field, limiting them to only seven points. KC’s defense is horrendous as the Chiefs rank near the bottom in most defensive categories this season and while I think the world of Patrick Mahomes, quarterbacks making their first playoff start are 4-11 SU and 4-10-1 ATS in 15 games since 2003. I just think the Colts will keep this close and I wouldn’t knock a bettor for taking the Indianapolis moneyline in this one.

The Pick: Cowboys +7 vs Rams

5.1 yards per carry. That’s how much the Rams “defense” allowed this season, which was the worst in the NFL and fits perfectly with the Cowboys’ game plan since this game will feature a heavy dose of Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott was a beast vs the Seahawks when he went for 137 yards rushing and helped to control the clock and get key first downs. I’m not going to go full homer and say the Cowboys win this game but they have all the tools to keep Jared Goff off the field and a defense to challenge the Rams offense and contain Todd Gurley. If the line drops below -7, I’d be extra cautious about backing Dallas but the +7 is a perfect spot for a cover wager.

The Pick: Chargers +4.5 vs Patriots

I wrote the betting preview for this divisional matchup and while there are numerous trends and stats to support the Patriots, the Chargers just have a different feel this year. Los Angeles is 8-1 SU and ATS in nine road games this season and has proven it can win in cold weather environments, upsetting the Steelers and Chiefs on the road. The Patriots may still win this game but the Chargers have the recipe to disrupt New England’s offense with a ferocious pass rush that can get to Tom Brady. I like the Chargers to keep this within a field goal.

The Pick: Eagles +8 vs Saints

Although the Eagles got blown out by the Saints when they played in the Bayou in Week 11, the Eagles have resembled a completely different team since Nick Foles got back under center. Foles is now 8-0 in must-win/elimination games for the Eagles over the last two seasons and Philly is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven games when tabbed as an underdog. I think the Saints will still win this game but it will likely be a late-game drive by Drew Brees and company that seals the deal, which is perfect for an Eagles cover bet.

The Pick: UNDER 49 Cowboys vs Rams

This one feels like it’s going to be a dogfight and typically when that happens in the NFL, OVER bettors suffer. It’s no secret that the Cowboys offense drops off when playing away from Dallas, which is why the UNDER has hit in 10 of the Cowboys’ last 12 away games. Their defense is strong enough to hold teams to less than 30 points – the Giants, in a throwaway Week 17 game, were the only team to top 30 against Dallas this season – but the offense is only averaging 17.3 points per road game this year. If this game is close, it will be because the defenses showed up, and that’s what I’m banking on.

The Pick: OVER 54.5 Colts-Chiefs

Two top-10 offenses and one horrendous defense that has allowed over 30 points in eight of its games – I can’t see how this one falls below the total. In seven games this season when the Chiefs played a team with a winning record, the average combined score was 72.8 points per game. Since the Colts went on their 10-1 SU streak over the last 11 games, they’ve averaged 27.4 points per contest. Don’t overcomplicate this. Take the OVER.