The Kansas City Chiefs, coming off their lowest-scoring performance of the season, head to Miami to take on the Dolphins (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) and one of the stingiest defenses in the league. If you could poke any holes in the Chiefs (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS) this year, it would be the strength of their schedule, and Miami could well be better than any team they have played thus far.
- Date/Time: December 13, 1 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV Coverage: CBS
- Sportsbook Odds: Chiefs -7 | O/U 49 (Line History)
- Chiefs vs Dolphins Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The game opened with the Chiefs as favorites at -7 and that line has moved up to either -7.5 or -9 depending on the sportsbook. The line opened at 49 and has moved down at some sportsbooks to 48.5 while staying at 49 at others.
Kansas City News & Notes
The Kansas City Chiefs seem to have established themselves as the best team in the league in the eyes of most analysts. The Chiefs lead the league in yards per play and total yards and are second in points scored.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is on track to win his second MVP award – he leads the NFL in yards and QBR and is second in touchdowns and quarterback rating – and tight end Travis Kelce and receiver Tyreek Hill are second and third respectively in the league in receiving yards. This offense appears to be virtually unstoppable.
But the Chiefs enter Week 14 coming off their lowest-scoring game of the season against Denver and now go on the road to face a Dolphins defense better than any they have faced this year.
Miami News & Notes
The Dolphins will again start Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback after he had his most prolific passing game of the season. Tagovailoa threw for 296 yards and a touchdown in Miami’s win over Cincinnati.
Tua has yet to throw an interception in his five starts but it is hard to imagine him leading the Dolphins to the kind of high-scoring performance that might be required against the Chiefs. Miami has scored more than 30 points just once with Tua at the helm and he has thrown for more than one touchdown in a game only twice.
A Dolphins win over the Chiefs would almost certainly need to come with the defense leading the way. The Dolphins have allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL and have forced the second-most turnovers. The defense is led by star cornerback Xavien Howard, who has a league-best eight interceptions.
Betting Pick: Chiefs -7.5
As good as their defense is, we just have a hard time seeing the Dolphins offense score the number of points necessary to cover this spread. You can’t completely stop Patrick Mahomes, you can only do your best to contain him. We see the Chiefs hitting their implied team total of 28. But we don’t see Miami getting to 20.
- The Chiefs are 16-1 SU and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games vs the AFC.
- The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at home.
- The Chiefs are 16-1 SU in their last 17 games after consecutive wins.
