New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns

After a topsy-turvy Week 2 in the NFL, the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns will renew acquaintances for Week 3’s Thursday Night Football. This will be the fourth straight year that the Brownies and J-E-T-S have met, with New York winning and covering in each game. Both teams took losses last Sunday but the Browns’ defeat felt more like a gut-punch after they controlled most of the game vs the Saints. However, oddsmakers must feel that Cleveland is due as they opened the Browns as 3-point favorites to get their first win in 634 days.

Jets vs Browns Game Center

Browns in Unfamiliar Position as Favorite

It has to burn the Browns organization that they were unable to come up with a win in their first two games of 2018. They’ve held the high-powered offenses of the Steelers and Saints to less than 30 points while leading the NFL through two weeks with a plus-6 in turnover differential. The Browns defense has been dynamite through two weeks by forcing five fumbles, seven sacks and three interceptions, which all rank in the top five in the NFL, so they’ve done their job. 

Cleveland’s offense is playing out exactly as the scouting report on Tyrod Taylor would suggest: not a great passer but doesn’t turn it over and can run the ball. So far, Taylor and the Browns have only mustered 384 passing yards through two games (ranked 26th) while gashing 270 yards on the ground (ranked fifth) with Taylor leading the team with 103 rushing yards and throwing two interceptions, so the story checks out.

Since the Browns’ offensive upside is capped, I find it hard to see why they would be favored. The Browns haven’t won a game in almost two years and have lost four straight games to the Jets over the last four seasons by an average combined score of 9.5 points per game.

This is the first time they’ve been favored at home since Week 14 in 2015, when they won and covered vs the 49ers. Since that win, the Browns are 1-36 SU and 10-26-1 ATS in 37 games (11-32-1 ATS over the last 44 games) and were only favored in one game last season, a contest vs the Colts that they lost 31-28. The cherry on top of the Browns’ poop sundae is they’re 4-15-2 ATS in their last 21 games after an ATS win. I know the Browns’ renaissance is eventually coming but damn, that’s some damning historical data.

Jets Have Done Well in Underdog Role

As a Jets fan told me during Week 2’s loss, “They never win when they’re supposed to.” Well, that statement isn’t entirely true as New York is 12-8 SU and 10-9-1 ATS over its last 20 games as a favorite but in recent history, he may be onto something. The Jets are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games as chalk dating back to Week 13 in 2016 and coincidentally, that lone victory was vs the Browns last season.

But as he put it, they were “supposed” to win that game as the Jets have won five straight games vs Cleveland (average win margin of 8.8 points) with four of those games taking place over the last four seasons. Now, obviously, these teams have had a lot of roster turnover in that span but the two things that seem to stay consistent is the Browns’ losing ways and the Jets covering as a dog. In the Jets’ last 12 games as pups of 3 points or more, they’ve gone 8-3-1 ATS.

The worry for Jets backers is that QB Sam Darnold looked lost in his second NFL start and threw two picks while being sacked three times. He still managed over 330 yards passing but it was a far cry from his stellar debut for Gang Green in Week 1 when he managed the game and threw two touchdowns, so he’ll have his work cut out for him in the Dawg Pound.

Totals Bettors Have a Tough Decision to Make

The total opened at 39 in this matchup and while both of these offenses leave a lot to be desired, the OVER may be the safe play. Over the last five games in this matchup, the average combined score is 42.8 points per game with the OVER hitting in three of them. After the first two weeks of the season, scoring is up by an average of eight points per game compared to the first two weeks of last season.

With the way the referees have been calling games in TNF so far, no UNDER is safe. After two games of Thursday Night Football in 2018, there have been 42 penalties that have totaled 398 yards which have greatly benefited the offense. I’m not saying to bank on this trend but this NFL feels like a different game than in years past.

The Pick to Make is…..

Stay away!! Just kidding, but Thursday Night Football has led to some wonky outcomes with teams seeming to be underprepared or referees flagging everything so I’m going to have to side with Jets +3.

That being said, with the way my picks have gone lately, it may be better to fade me and take the Browns and finally watch all those beer coolers open in Cleveland.