Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

Spoiled doesn’t even begin to describe what we were treated to last Monday but, alas, it’s back down to earth for the Week 12 finale when the somehow 7-3 Houston Texans host the 5-5 Tennessee Titans as favorites in an AFC South matchup the Indianapolis Colts will be watching very closely.

Most books opened this line at 6 or 6.5 with Marcus Mariota’s status up in the air, but with the oft-injured quarterback looking more and more likely to play on Monday, the line has settled around 4.

Titans vs Texans Game Center

Road Woes Have Haunted the Titans

If it weren’t for their inconsistency and horrific home/road splits, the Titans could be big players in the AFC this season. But 5-20 SU in their last 25 divisional road games and averaging just over 15 points per game over their last four away from home, the Titans haven’t been doing themselves any favors.

That said, the road team has covered in five of the last six Monday night games and this is an absolute must-win for Tennessee.

Parlay that with how bad the Texans have been in prime time (5-23-1 ATS in their last 29 games at night) and the Titans have a real shot not only to cover but to win this game outright as underdogs.

Tennessee Has Been a Titan in the AFC South

Up until their embarrassment at Lucas Oil Stadium last week, the Titans had been owning divisional games, winning and covering in six straight. Tennessee is one of the inconsistent, most difficult teams to handicap in the NFL but one thing is certain – they compete against their rivals.

With the Titans 3-1 SU in their last four against the Texans specifically, this is a matchup Tennessee has been getting the better of recently. One of Houston’s three losses this season came against the Titans in Week 2 in a 20-17 defeat that the Texans probably should have won but that’s not the point.

Houston has been involved in coin toss-type games all season – winning their last two games by four combined points – and I don’t think they deserve to be more than a 3-point favorite.

Houston Stands on Shaky Legs

I’ve been complaining about the Texans for weeks, talking about them being one of the worst 7-3 teams I’ve ever seen and I think this game could prove it. Tennessee has one of the strongest defensive lines in the NFL and Deshaun Watson is still being taken down at an astronomical rate (sacked 33 times this season).

This game could see its share of turnovers and if you’re a prolific prop bettor, you might want to take a look at a defensive touchdown to be scored. Watson and Mariota will both be under constant threat but the Texans’ leaky blocking unit is where the Titans hold the biggest advantage in this contest.

Watson is extremely prone to giving the ball away and this is a game where I can see that costing the Texans dearly.

Best bet for Titans vs Texans: ten +10.5, OVer 35.5, 6-point Teaser

Picking a side in this game is not an enviable task and none of my research has given me enough confidence in either team to take them on a straight spread wager. Because of that, I’m going back to my teasing ways (after hitting my Thanksgiving Day three-teamer) and bumping the Titans up to +10.5 and the OVER down to 35.5.

This feels like a three- to seven-point win for either team in an important AFC South matchup and as for the total, Houston and Tennessee have gone OVER that number in 15 of their 20 total games this season.