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Week 10 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

Week 10 NFL Betting Picks

Anyone I work with can probably tell you how much I love using net yards per play as a reason to justify my picks. I sense that my co-workers are starting to get a bit annoyed by my obsession with the stat. It’s almost as if I can see past the uninterested looks on their faces when I’m ranting about it and peer inside their souls as they mentally scoff at my reasoning. Why are they like this? Oops, I thought this was my diary, just ignore this intro...

Anyways, a great tip to consider is looking at net yards per play rankings over the last three weeks, which can conveniently be found in our weekly Net Yards Per Play Report. Taking a look at the bottom four teams over their last three games (Bengals, Raiders, Browns and Dolphins), they’re an atrocious 2-10 ATS in that span!

Clearly, it’s obvious that this stat should be part of your weekly handicapping regime. Definitely not the be-all and end-all, but it can provide a nice edge that you don’t find with traditional stats or by looking at box scores. Now if you’ll excuse me, I need to get back to my diary.

Best bets for Week 10

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 10 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, November 8:

  • Lions +7
  • Saints -5.5
  • Chiefs -16.5
  • Packers -10
  • Giants +3
  • Patriots -3.5 1st half spread
  • Falcons -3 1st half spread
  • Saints vs Bengals OVER 54
  • Cowboys vs Eagles UNDER 43 (more on this pick here)
  • Rams Team Total UNDER 30.5

Stats and Trends for Week 10:

Panthers at Steelers
  • The Steelers are averaging 33.4 points per game over their last five home games.
  • The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five TNF games and the OVER has hit in five of the last six.
  • The Steelers are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games at night.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Steelers' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 55.4)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Panthers' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 53.71)
  • The Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs the Steelers.
  • The Panthers are 0-5 SU in their last five games vs the Steelers. (Avg losing margin: 20.4)
  • The Panthers are 5-20-1 SU in their last 26 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.
Saints at Bengals
  • The Bengals have allowed 35.67 points per game over their last three games. The Saints are averaging 36.33 points per game over their last six games.
  • Saints games have an average combined score of 62.13 this season. Bengals games are at 57.25.
  • Over their last three games, the Bengals rank last in net yards per play.
  • The Saints allow the fewest rushing yards in the league — 76.4 per game.
  • The Bengals allow the most passing yards per game at 319.4. The Saints allow the second-most at 311.4.
  • The Bengals lead the league in red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The Bengals are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs.
  • The Saints are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs the Bengals.
  • The Bengals are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games after a bye.
  • The Saints are 7-0 SU in their last seven games. (Avg winning margin: 9.86)
  • The Saints are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
Cardinals at Chiefs
  • Over their last eight games, the Cardinals are averaging just 13.75 points per game. The Chiefs are allowing just 15.67 points over their last three home games and are averaging an NFL-best 36.3 points per game this season.
  • The Cardinals allow the second-most rushing yards per game at 143.1.
  • The Chiefs rank third in net yards per play this season. The Cardinals rank 31st.
  • The Cardinals are 1-11 SU and 0-11-1 ATS in their last 12 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Chiefs' last nine games at home. (Avg combined score: 45.78)
  • The Cardinals are 0-4 SU in their last four games on the road vs the Chiefs. (Avg losing margin: 25.25)
  • The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as home favorites.
  • The total has gone OVER in 15 of the Cardinals' last 20 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 48.5)
Bills at Jets
  • The Bills are averaging 7.6 points per game over their last six games! The Jets are averaging 11 points per game over their last three games! Rough scene.
  • The Bills have the most turnovers in the NFL at 22. The Jets have the third-most at 20.
  • The Jets rank last in red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bills' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 33.71)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Bills' last seven games vs the Jets. (Avg combined score: 45.0)
  • The Bills are 2-6 SU in their last eight games on the road vs the Jets.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Jets' last nine games at home. (Avg combined score: 51.56)
  • The Bills are 3-8 SU and ATS in their last 11 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Bills are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games after consecutive losses.
Falcons at Browns
  • The Falcons have a 1st half point differential of +4.13. The Browns have a 1st half point differential of -5.78.
  • Over their last three games, Cleveland is allowing an opponents' red-zone TD scoring percentage of 100%.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Falcons' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 60.57)
  • The Browns rank 31st in net yards per play at home. The Falcons rank seventh in net yards per play on the road.
  • The Browns are somehow first in the NFL in turnover differential at +11.
  • The Browns are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games at home.
  • The Browns are 3-40-1 SU in their last 44 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Browns' last 17 games at home. (Avg combined score: 37.59)
  • The Falcons are 7-1 SU in their last eight games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games on the road after covering in their most recent road game.
Jaguars at Colts
  • The Jaguars beat the Colts twice last season by scores of 30-10 and 27-0.
  • Over their last three games, the Colts are averaging 37.67 points. During their four-game losing streak, the Jags are allowing 28.5 points per game.
  • The Jaguars allow the fewest passing yards per game at 190.
  • The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after a bye.
  • The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs the Colts.
  • The Jaguars are 4-1 SU in their last five games vs the Colts.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Jaguars' last 14 games vs the Colts. (Avg combined score: 39.93)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Colts' last 16 games at home. (Avg combined score: 42.69)
  • The Colts are 17-6 SU in their last 23 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Jaguars are 2-11 SU in their last 13 divisional road games.
Lions at Bears
  • The Bears are averaging 34.4 points over their last five games and are allowing just 15.5 points over their last six home games.
  • The Bears rank second in net yards per play at home this season. The Lions rank 25th overall in net yards per play.
  • The Lions are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games vs the Bears.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Lions' last five games vs the Bears. (Avg combined score: 38.6)
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Bears' last five games. (Avg combined score: 54.0)
  • The Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The Bears are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents. (Avg losing margin: 9.2)
  • The Lions are 12-42 SU in their last 54 divisional road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Lions' last four games on the road. (Avg combined score: 48.25)
Patriots at Titans
  • The Patriots are 9-0 SU in their last nine games before a bye with an average win margin of 22.33 in those games.
  • The Patriots are 7-0 SU in their last seven games vs the Titans. (Avg winning margin: 20.86)
  • The Titans are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games after playing in a MNF game.
  • The Patriots have a 1st half point differential of +7.11. The Titans have a 1st half point differential of -2.88.
  • The Patriots are averaging 35.5 points over their last six games.
  • Titans games have had an average combined score of 34.38 this season — the lowest in the NFL.
  • The Patriots are 16-3 SU and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games on the road.
  • The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs the Titans.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Patriots' last five games vs the Titans. (Avg combined score: 53.4)
  • The Titans are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games at home.
Redskins at Buccaneers
  • Tampa Bay has allowed 36.8 points per game over its last five games.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Buccaneers' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 62.11)
  • Tampa Bay is last in the NFL in turnover differential at -15. They have just one interception.
  • The Redskins are 2-7 SU in their last nine games on the road vs the Buccaneers.
  • The Buccaneers are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Redskins' last 12 games. (Avg combined score: 39.67)
  • The Redskins are 4-0 SU in their last four games after a loss.
Dolphins at Packers
  • The Dolphins are averaging 14.55 points over their last 11 road games and are allowing 29.8 points on the road this season.
  • The Dolphins rank 31st in net yards per play on the road.
  • The Dolphins are 1-8 SU and ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.
  • The total has gone OVER in 23 of the Packers' last 31 games. (Avg combined score: 48.52)
  • The Packers are 59-16-2 SU in their last 77 games at home.
  • The Packers are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games in the late afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Dolphins' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 45.6)
  • The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Packers.
Chargers at Raiders
  • Over their last three games, the Chargers rank first in net yards per play. The Raiders rank 31st over that span.
  • The Chargers are allowing just 15 points per game over their last four games. The Raiders are averaging just 11 points per game over their last four games.
  • The Raiders allow the most rushing yards per game at 144.5 and have allowed 173.3 over their last three games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Raiders' last 15 games. (Avg combined score: 43.8)
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Chargers' last 10 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 40.5)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Chargers' last four games vs the Raiders. (Avg combined score: 36.0)
  • The Chargers are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games on the road vs the Raiders.
  • The Raiders are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last four games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Chargers are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games vs their division on the road.
  • The Chargers are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games on the road vs teams with losing records.
Seahawks at Rams
  • The Seahawks are allowing just 14 points per game over their last three games.
  • Over their last three games, the Rams are allowing an opponents' red-zone TD scoring percentage of 87.5%. This is the second-worst in the league.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Seahawks' last 17 games vs the Rams. (Avg combined score: 35.65)
  • The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road vs the Rams.
  • The Rams are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Seahawks' last 10 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 39.0)
  • The Seahawks are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games after a loss.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Seahawks' last nine games vs their division on the road.
  • The Seahawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a double-digit underdog.
Cowboys at Eagles
  • The Cowboys are 0-9 SU in their last nine games after playing in a MNF game. They're 0-5 ATS in their last five games in that spot.
  • The Eagles are allowing just 12 points per game over their last nine home games. The Cowboys are averaging just 12 points per game over their last five road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last eight SNF games.
  • Philly is allowing an opponents' red-zone TD scoring percentage of 35.29% at home. This is the best in the NFL.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Cowboys' last three games vs the Eagles. (Avg combined score: 30.67)
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Eagles' last nine games at home. (Avg combined score: 31.89)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Cowboys' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 31.25)
  • The Eagles allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game — 83.8.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Cowboys’ last 12 night games.
  • The Cowboys are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games in Philadelphia.
  • The Eagles are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games after a bye.
  • The Eagles are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games at night.
  • The Cowboys are 12-4 SU in their last 16 divisional road games.
  • The Cowboys are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.
Giants at 49ers
  • The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 MNF games.
  • The Giants are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games on the road vs the 49ers.
  • The Giants are averaging just 15.33 points per game in their last three games.
  • The visiting team is 4-1 ATS in the last five games in this matchup.
  • The 49ers are 5-14 SU in their last 19 games at home.
  • The 49ers are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as favorite.
  • The 49ers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games on Monday.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Giants' last seven games at night.
  • The Giants are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games after a bye.
  • The Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after an ATS loss.

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