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Week 14 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

Week 14 NFL Betting

We’ve reached that point of the year where motivation starts to change for some teams, with some looking ahead to the playoffs and others already looking ahead to the draft. It’s getting pretty clear who’s in the mix for the playoffs and who’s in the mix for a top-10 pick.

While those plus-.500 teams will be doing their all to solidify their playoff position, those out of the race might be more inclined to try some different strategies *wink-wink* that could lead to a better position in the draft.

So, what can us bettors do with this info? Well, I took a look at a few different situations involving good teams vs bad teams from Weeks 14-17, and it turns out, I’ve found a bit of an edge — emphasis on the “bit,” but I’ll take any edge I can get.

Since 2012, teams at .500 or better vs teams below .500 are 100-80-4 ATS in Weeks 14-17, good enough for a covering rate of 55.5  percent — aka a profitable number. We have a lot of these spots on the board this week: Steelers vs Raiders, Broncos vs 49ers, Panthers vs Browns, Saints vs Bucs and Mark Sanchez’ Redskins vs the Giants.

Motivation in any sport is impossible to measure, but the stat above gives us an indication that good teams are good bets vs bad teams at this point of the season. Good luck with your Week 14 picks!

Best Bets for Week 14:

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 14 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, December 6:

  • Bills -3.5
  • Panthers -2
  • Cardinals +3
  • Saints -8
  • Seahawks -3
  • Bears +1.5 first-half spread (more on this pick here)
  • Falcons vs Packers UNDER 50.5
  • Patriots vs Dolphins OVER 47
  • Ravens vs Chiefs UNDER 51.5

Week 14 Stats and Trends:

Jaguars at Titans
  • The home team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six TNF games and the OVER has hit in seven of the last 10.
  • The Jaguars are averaging 14.33 points over their last three games.
  • The Titans have a first-half point differential of -4.5 which is fifth-worst in the NFL. Their first-half record is 4-8 ATS.
  • Titans games have an average combined score of 38.83 this season. Jaguars games are at 37.17. These are the two lowest average combined scores in the league.
  • The Jaguars are 0-4 SU in their last four games on the road vs the Titans. (Avg losing margin: 6.0)
  • The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Titans' last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Titans are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games at home.
  • The Jaguars are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games at night.
  • The Jaguars are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games vs their division on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Jaguars' last five games vs divisional opponents.
Colts at Texans
  • The Texans are allowing 15.86 points over their last seven games. Over their last three home games, they’ve averaged 35 points.
  • Texans games have had an average combined score of 44.75 this season.
  • The Texans are 9-0 SU in their last nine games. (Avg winning margin: 9.11)
  • The Colts are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Colts' last four games vs the Texans. (Avg combined score: 44.75)
  • The Colts are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Texans.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Colts' last nine games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Colts are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in December.
Eagles at Cowboys
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Eagles' last four games vs the Cowboys. (Avg combined score: 34.75)
  • The Eagles are 4-1 SU in their last five games on the road vs the Cowboys.
  • The visiting team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 games in this matchup.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the Cowboys' last 21 games. (Avg combined score: 37.95)
  • The Cowboys are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Cowboys are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games as favorite.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Eagles' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 56.67)
  • The Eagles are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
Falcons at Packers
  • Since 2010, teams are 11-7 ATS in the next game after firing their coach. As you’ll recall, Mike McCarthy was fired by the Packers after they were humiliated by the Cardinals at home, losing outright as a 13.5-point favorite — something that would have never happened if Brett Favre was playing.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Falcons' last nine games on the road. (Avg combined score: 41.89)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Packers' last six games. (Avg combined score: 46.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in the Falcons' last four games vs the Packers. (Avg combined score: 66.75)
  • The Falcons are 3-0 SU in their last three games vs the Packers. (Avg winning margin: 11.67)
  • The Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on the road vs the Packers.
  • The Packers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games at home in December.
  • The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
  • The Falcons are 7-2 SU in their last nine games on the road vs teams with losing records.
Giants at Redskins
  • The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five games on the road.
  • The Giants are 3-9 ATS on the first-half spread this season, which ties them for worst.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Giants' last four games vs the Redskins. (Avg combined score: 30.0)
  • The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home.
  • The Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Giants' last 10 games vs their division on the road.
Jets at Bills
  • Over their last three games, the Bills are tied for first in net yards per play. The Jets rank last over this span.
  • The Jets are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents. (Avg losing margin: 16.0)
  • The Bills are 8-1 SU in their last nine games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Jets are 3-7 SU and ATS in their last 10 games vs the Bills.
  • The Jets are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Bills.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Bills' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 37.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Jets' last five games vs their division on the road.
  • The Jets are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games on the road.
Panthers at Browns
  • The Panthers have allowed 32 points per game over their last three road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Browns' last 18 games at home. (Avg combined score: 37.94)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Panthers' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 46.2)
  • The Panthers are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on the road.
  • The Panthers are 5-2 SU in their last seven games after consecutive losses.
  • The Panthers are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games vs the Browns.
Patriots at Dolphins
  • The visiting team is 1-11 SU and ATS in the last 12 games in this matchup.
  • The Dolphins are tied for first for best first-half spread record at 9-3 ATS.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Dolphins' last 18 games at home. (Avg combined score: 46.39)
  • The Dolphins are 4-1 SU in their last five games vs their division at home.
  • The Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Patriots' last five games. (Avg combined score: 39.4)
  • The Patriots are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Patriots are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games in the early afternoon.
Ravens at Chiefs
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Chiefs' last 10 games at home. (Avg combined score: 45.2)
  • The Chiefs are allowing 15.25 points per game over their last four home games. The Ravens are allowing 15.6 points per game over their last five road games.
  • Ravens road games have an average combined score of 39.67 this season.
  • The Chiefs are tied for first for best first-half spread record at 9-3 ATS.
  • The Ravens are 3-0 SU in their last three games on the road vs the Chiefs. (Avg winning margin: 12.0)
  • The visiting team is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight games in this matchup.
  • The Chiefs are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in the early afternoon.
  • The Chiefs are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games.
  • The Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after consecutive ATS wins.
  • The Ravens are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games after consecutive wins.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Ravens' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 40.4)
Saints at Buccaneers
  • The Bucs are allowing just 14 points per game over their last three home games. The Saints are allowing just 12.33 points per game over their last three games.
  • Bucs home games have had an average combined score of 41.67 this season.
  • The Saints have a first-half point differential of +6.25, which is third-best in the NFL. The Bucs are at -5.33, which is fourth-worst in the NFL.
  • The Saints are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games vs the Buccaneers.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Saints' last 20 games vs the Buccaneers. (Avg combined score: 47.1)
  • The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Buccaneers.
  • The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as home underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Saints' last five games vs divisional opponents.
Steelers at Raiders
  • The Steelers have a first-half point differential of +5.83. The Raiders have a first-half point differential of -4.25.
  • The Steelers rank second in net yards per play. The Raiders rank last.
  • The Raiders have allowed an average of 34.2 points over their last five home games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Raiders' last 14 games when hosting an East Coast team.
  • The Raiders are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Raiders are 6-2 SU in their last eight games when hosting an East Coast team.
  • The Steelers are 10-1-1 SU in their last 12 games on the road.
  • The Steelers are 7-1-1 SU in their last nine games after a loss.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Steelers' last four games on the road. (Avg combined score: 41.25)
  • The Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs the Raiders.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Steelers' last seven games on the road vs the Raiders.
Lions at Cardinals
  • The Cardinals are averaging 14.33 points over their last six home games.
  • The Cardinals have a league-worst first-half point differential of -7.42.
  • The Lions are 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games as a road favorite. The Cardinals are 18-9-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Lions' last 14 games vs the Cardinals. (Avg combined score: 49.07)
  • The Lions are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight games on the road vs the Cardinals. (Avg losing margin: 8.88)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Cardinals' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 33.88)
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Lions' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 49.8)
  • The Cardinals are 20-7 SU in their last 27 games at home in December.
  • The Lions are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games in December.
  • The Lions are 10-36 SU in their last 46 games in the late afternoon.
Bengals at Chargers
  • The Chargers lead the league in net yards per play. The Bengals rank 27th.
  • The Bengals are allowing 35.5 points over their last six games. The Chargers are allowing 15.5 points over their last four home games.
  • The Chargers have a first-half point differential of 5.5. The Bengals have a first-half point differential of -5.58.
  • The average combined score in Bengals road games is 56.4. Chargers home games are at 49.5.
  • The Bengals are 3-9 ATS on the first-half spread this season, tying them for worst.
  • The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs the Chargers.
  • The Bengals are 6-0 SU in their last six games on the West Coast.
  • The Chargers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Bengals' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 56.67)
  • The Bengals are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
Broncos at 49ers
  • Over their last three games, the 49ers are averaging 16 points scored and 32.33 points allowed.
  • The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the 49ers' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 52.0)
  • The 49ers are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games at home.
  • The 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games at home in December.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Broncos' last five games. (Avg combined score: 41.8)
  • The Broncos are 4-12 SU in their last 16 games on the road.
Rams at Bears
  • The Bears have covered the first-half spread in five straight games and have a league-best +9.0 first-half point differential.
  • Chicago is first in the NFL in net yards per play at home.
  • Rams games have an average combined score of 59.75 this season, which is second-highest in the NFL.
  • The Bears are scoring an average of 32.4 points over their last five home games. The Rams are averaging 34.67 points over their last three road games.
  • The Rams are 1-5 SU in their last six games vs the Bears.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Bears' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 52.4)
  • The Bears are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games at home.
  • The Bears are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Rams are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in December.
Vikings at Seahawks
  • The Seahawks are 14-3-3 ATS in their last 20 night games at home.
  • The Vikings are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 night games on the road.
  • The Vikings are 2-10-1 SU and ATS in their last 13 road games vs teams with winning records.
  • Vikings road games have an average combined score of 50.67 this season. Seahawks home games are at  50.6.
  • The Seahawks have scored an average of 33.33 points over their last three games.
  • The Vikings are 0-4 SU in their last four games vs the Seahawks. (Avg losing margin: 15.75)
  • The Seahawks are 46-12 SU in their last 58 games at home.
  • The Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Seahawks' last eight games on Monday.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Vikings' last 12 games at night.
  • The Vikings are 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on Monday.
  • The Vikings are 8-1 SU in their last nine games after a loss.

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