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Week 3 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

Week 3 NFL Odds and Picks

Entering Week 3 of the NFL season, there’s still a lot of questions that we don’t have answers to. Are the Bills or Cardinals this year’s Browns? Are the Browns this year’s Browns? Will Jimmy Garoppolo begin a romantic relationship with another adult film actress? Will LeBron James’ version of Space Jam be better than Michael Jordan’s? Will the crisis in the Middle East ever be solved? What happens after we die?

All right, I’m getting a bit off track… Here’s a few things for bettors to keep in mind for Week 3:

There tends to be a recency bias among casual bettors, which could turn some off from picking teams who are off to 0-2 ATS starts, but this has proven to be a profitable spot. Over the past three seasons, teams that started 0-2 ATS went 15-7 ATS in Week 3, good enough for a covering rate of 68.1%. This has actually been a winning spot for a decade now as teams to start 0-2 ATS are 44-32 ATS (57.8%) in Week 3 over the last 10 seasons.

Teams who are off to 0-2 ATS starts: Bills, Steelers, Texans, Giants, Saints, 49ers, Cardinals.

Specific to last season, both the Saints and Jets started the season 0-2 ATS, then they each went on to cover in four straight games. The Raiders, meanwhile, started 2-0 ATS, then failed to cover in their next four games.

The point of this is to have a short memory when betting spreads in the NFL as each week is a new week. You should apply the same logic to your betting philosophy — never get too high and never get too low.

My top bets for Week 3:

I usually won’t have this many picks, but there’s a lot I like this week. Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 3 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, September 20:

  • Packers -3
  • Patriots -7 (more on that here)
  • Ravens -5.5
  • Dolphins -3
  • Saints +3
  • UNDER 41.5 for Cowboys vs Seahawks
  • UNDER 47.5 for Colts vs Eagles
  • OVER 20 for Bengals team total
  • OVER 23 for Dolphins team total
  • UNDER 16.5 for Cardinals team total
  • Travis Kelce to score a TD (-125)
  • Tevin Coleman to score a TD (-134) 

Betting Trends and Stats for Week 3:

Jets at Browns
  • The Browns haven't covered the spread in three straight games since 2013.
  • The home team is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six TNF games.
  • The Jets are 5-0 SU in their last five games vs the Browns. (Avg. winning margin: 8.8)
  • The Browns are 11-32-1 ATS in their last 44 games.
  • The Browns are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
  • The Browns are 4-15-2 ATS in their last 21 games after an ATS win.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Browns' last 14 games at home. (Avg. combined score: 37.07)
  • The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on Thursday.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Jets' last four games. (Avg. combined score: 37.5)
  • Tyrod Taylor had a 101.9 QB rating in two games vs the Jets last season as a member of the Bills.
49ers at Chiefs
  • The Chiefs are allowing an NFL-high 430 passing yards per game.
  • Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 582 yards and 10 TDs in the first two games of the season.
  • The 49ers are 0-4 SU in their last four games on the road vs the Chiefs. (Avg. losing margin: 26.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Chiefs' last 15 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Chiefs are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games in September.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the 49ers' last five games. (Avg. combined score: 53.8)
  • The 49ers are 1-9 SU and 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
Bengals at Panthers
  • Over his last 12 games, Andy Dalton has thrown 22 TDs and just 5 INTs.
  • The Panthers have allowed 21 or more points in 8 of their last 10 games.
  • The Panthers are 6-0 SU in their last six games at home. (Avg. winning margin: 8.67)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Panthers' last 10 games. (Avg. combined score: 49.9)
  • The Bengals are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games.
  • The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdog.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Bengals' last six games on the road in September.
Bills at Vikings
  • Teams favored by 14.5 points or more are 161-8 SU since 1984. It’s probably safe to pick the Vikings in your survivor pool this week.
  • The Bills are 1-4 SU in their last five games on the road vs the Vikings.
  • The Vikings are 7-0 SU in their last seven games at home. (Avg. winning margin: 13.0)
  • The Vikings are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games as home favorites.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Vikings' last five games at home. (Avg. combined score: 39.6)
  • The Bills are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The Bills are 0-17 SU in their last 17 games as a double-digit underdog.
Broncos at Ravens
  • The Ravens are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games following a TNF game.
  • The Broncos are 1-9 SU and ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
  • Joe Flacco has thrown nine TDs and just 1 INT in his last four home games.
  • The Broncos are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games in the early afternoon with an average loss margin of 16.6 points.
  • The Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games at home in September.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Broncos' last five games vs the Ravens. (Avg. combined score: 56.0)
  • The Broncos are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games on the road vs the Ravens.
  • The Ravens are 4-0 SU in their last four games after a loss.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Broncos' last eight games in September.
Colts at Eagles
  • The Eagles were 10-3 ATS with Carson Wentz as their starter last season. He led them to seven double-digit victories. At home last season he threw 18 TDs and 3 INTs.
  • The Eagles are allowing a league-low 58.5 rushing yards per game.
  • The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs the Eagles.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Eagles' last six games at home. (Avg. combined score: 28.17)
  • The Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
  • The Eagles are 6-2 SU in their last eight games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Colts' last 10 games. (Avg. combined score: 36.6)
  • The Colts are 21-9 SU in their last 30 games on the road in September.
  • The Colts are 0-8 SU in their last eight games after a win.
Raiders at Dolphins
  • The Dolphins are 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in Ryan Tannehill’s last 9 starts at home.
  • The Dolphins are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games when hosting a West Coast team.
  • The Raiders are 5-21 SU in their last 26 games on the East Coast.
  • The Dolphins are 45-18 SU in their last 63 home games in September.
  • The Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games vs the Dolphins.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Dolphins' last 14 games at home. (Avg. combined score: 45.57)
  • The Dolphins are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games at home in September.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Raiders' last nine games. (Avg. combined score: 38.78)
  • The Raiders are 0-6 SU in their last six games. (Avg. losing margin: 10.67)
  • The Raiders are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road in September.
Saints at Falcons
  • The Saints are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against the Falcons as an underdog.
  • The Saints are allowing a league-high seven yards per play.
  • The Saints are 1-3 SU in their last four games on the road vs the Falcons.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Saints' last nine games on the road vs the Falcons.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Falcons' last nine games. (Avg. combined score: 35.78)
  • The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in the early afternoon.
  • The Falcons are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games vs divisional opponents. The win margin in the 10 wins was 10.2.
  • The Saints are 1-5 SU in their last six games vs their division on the road.
  • The Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Saints' last five games. (Avg. combined score: 58.4)
  • The Saints are averaging a league-low 52.5 rushing yards per game.
Giants at Texans
  • The Texans are averaging a league-best 157.5 rushing yards per game. The Giants are allowing 137.5 rushing yards per game, which is fourth-most in the league.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Giants' last nine games. (Avg. combined score: 34.89)
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Giants' last four games vs the Texans. (Avg. combined score: 36.25)
  • The Texans are 0-8 SU in their last eight games. (Avg. losing margin: 14.13)
  • The Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games. This is their longest streak of not covering the spread in franchise history.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Texans' last 10 games in September.
  • The Giants are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road. (Avg. losing margin: 11.4)
  • The Giants are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road vs teams with losing records.
Packers at Redskins
  • The Packers are 6-2 SU in their last eight games vs the Redskins.
  • The Packers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Redskins.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Packers' last three games vs the Redskins. (Avg. combined score: 59.0)
  • The Redskins are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games before a bye.
  • By all accounts, Aaron Rodgers is admired by many.
  • The Redskins are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games at home in September.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Redskins' last six games. (Avg. combined score: 34.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Packers' last 12 games on the road. (Avg. combined score: 53.75)
  • The Packers are 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on the road in September.
Titans at Jaguars
  • The Titans are 4-1 SU in their last five games vs the Jaguars, including winning both games last season by a combined score of 52-26.
  • The Titans are 3-1 ATS in their last four games vs the Jaguars.
  • The Jaguars are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Jaguars are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games vs their division at home.
  • The Titans are 5-0 SU in their last five games vs divisional opponents. (Avg. winning margin: 7.4)
  • The Titans are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
Chargers at Rams
  • The Rams are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as favorite.
  • The Rams have outscored their opponents 67-13 this season.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Rams' last eight games at home. (Avg. combined score: 42.88)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Chargers' last seven games on the road. (Avg. combined score: 36.14)
  • The Chargers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in the late afternoon.
  • The Chargers are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Chargers are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 7 or more.
Cowboys at Seahawks
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Cowboys' last six games. (Avg. combined score: 28.83)
  • These teams combined for just 33 points in Dallas in Week 16 last season.
  • The Seahawks are 25-2 SU in their last 27 home games in September.
  • The Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Seahawks.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Cowboys' last five games vs the Seahawks. (Avg. combined score: 36.2)
  • The Seahawks are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games in the late afternoon.
  • The Seahawks are 40-9 SU in their last 49 games as home favorites.
  • The Cowboys are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The Cowboys are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games as underdog.
Bears at Cardinals
  • The total has gone OVER in the Bears' last four games vs the Cardinals. (Avg. combined score: 55.25)
  • The Bears are 4-1 SU in their last five games on the road vs the Cardinals.
  • Mitch Trubisky's career QB rating is 18.3 points lower in road games.
  • The Cardinals are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games in the late afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Cardinals' last six games. (Avg. combined score: 31.83)
  • The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in September.
  • The Bears are 2-15 SU in their last 17 games on the road.
  • The Bears are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road in September.
  • The Cardinals are being outscored 58-6 this season. Chicago leads the league in sacks with 10. This is not a good combination for Arizona.
  • The Cardinals are last in the league in net yards per play at -2.4.
Patriots at Lions
  • Since 2000, the Patriots are 49-24-1 ATS following a loss. After a double-digit loss, they’re 21-6 ATS.
  • Since 2000, the Patriots are 43-29-4 ATS in night games. This includes a 13-5 ATS stretch in their last 18 night games on the road.
  • Bill Belichick is 12-6 SU and 11-7 ATS in his career vs former assistants.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Patriots’ last 16 games with a total of 50 or more.
  • The Patriots are 4-0 SU in their last four games vs the Lions. (Avg. winning margin: 15.25)
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Lions' last 10 games at home. (Avg. combined score: 51.1)
  • The Lions are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
  • The Patriots are 17-4 SU in their last 21 games at night.
  • The Patriots are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as favorite.
  • The Patriots are 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games on the road.
  • The Lions are allowing a league-high 179.5 rushing yards per game.
Steelers at Buccaneers
  • The favorite is 15-2 SU in the last 17 MNF games and the total has gone UNDER in six of the last seven MNF games.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick is 4-8 SU and 3-8-1 ATS in night games in his career.
  • In 18 career MNF games, Ben Roethlisberger has a 14-4 SU record.
  • The Steelers are 12-0 SU in their last 12 games at night with an average win margin of 12.5.
  • The Steelers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games vs the Buccaneers.
  • The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs the Buccaneers.
  • The Buccaneers lead the league in net yards per play at 1.4.
  • The Buccaneers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games at night.
  • The Buccaneers are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games in September.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 18 of the Steelers' last 23 games on the road. (Avg. combined score: 39.57)
  • The Steelers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.

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