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Week 8 NFL Picks
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Week 8 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

Joe Osborne Published on: Oct 28, 2018 10:40 AM ET

Every dog has its day, especially on dog day Sunday afternoons, unless of course they’re barking up the wrong tree, but it’s not about the size of the dog in the fight, it’s about the size of the fight in the dog. I can’t think of any more dog cliches, but this is just my extremely creative way of introducing the topic of underdog betting in the NFL this season.

Underdogs have a 56-46-3 ATS record this season, good enough for a covering rate of 54.9 percent. That doesn’t sound too crazy, but when you consider underdogs only had a 49.7 percent cover rate from 2013 to 2017  — a difference of 5.2 percentage points — it’s fair to expect some regression from underdogs.

So, what can us bettors do with this info? Well, if history is any indication, favorites should cover more spreads than underdogs the rest of the way. Sadly, we have no way of knowing if they’ll slowly dig out of the hole, or have one or two big weeks as underdogs did in Week 2 when they went 11-5 ATS.

One consideration, however, could be when you’re on the fence to show a little bit more love for favorites. There’s nothing sharp or scientific about it, but with underdogs set for a drop-off, it might give you that extra little edge you need to pick up a W and a pocket full of cash.

To wrap it all up, I’d like to remind you that when it comes to betting on the NFL, it’s a dog-eat-dog world and you’re either the hydrant or the dog. WOOF!

Best Bets for Week 8

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 8 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, October 25:

  • Dolphins vs Texans UNDER 44.5
  • Eagles -3
  • Ravens -2
  • Rams -6 first-half spread
  • Patriots -7.5 first-half spread
  • Bears -1.5 + Redskins +5 (6-point teaser at -120)
  • Lions Team Total UNDER 26.5
  • 49ers vs Cardinals UNDER 42.5
  • Saints vs Vikings OVER 52 (more on this pick here)
  • Greasy moneyline parlay: Chiefs + Steelers + Rams + Patriots (+107)

Week 8 NFL Betting Stats and Trends:

Dolphins at Texans
  • The favorite is 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 TNF games and the total has gone OVER in four straight TNF games.
  • The Dolphins have a -49 point differential over their last four games. Their defense is allowing 31.25 points per game over this span.
  • The Texans are allowing just 12 points per game over their last three games.
  • The Dolphins rank 31st in net yards per play on the road.
  • The Texans rank 31st in red-zone TD scoring percentage. Miami ranks 7th in opponents’ red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The Dolphins are averaging just 13.7 points per game over their last 10 road games.
  • The Dolphins are 1-7 SU and ATS in their last eight games on the road.
  • The Dolphins are 1-7 SU in their last eight games vs the Texans.
  • The Dolphins are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game and Houston is coming off a game with 37 rush attempts.
  • The Texans are 4-23-1 ATS in their last 28 games at night.
  • The Dolphins are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Texans' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 41.56)
  • Under Adam Gase, the Dolphins are 0-2 SU in TNF games, being outscored 62-7!
Eagles at Jaguars
  • The favorite is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five London games.
  • All five Jaguars games in London have gone OVER. They're 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three London games.
  • With a solid game, Blake Bortles will be named the heir to Prince Charles’ throne (apparently).
  • The Jaguars are averaging just 9.33 points per game over their last three games.
  • Jacksonville ranks 31st in turnover differential at -12.
  • The Eagles rank first in time of possession. Jacksonville is 27th.
  • The Eagles are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game at 85.7.
  • The Jaguars are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.
  • The Eagles are 6-1 SU in their last seven games after a loss.
  • The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Jaguars' last six games before a bye.
Browns at Steelers
  • The Steelers rank 3rd in net yards per play. The Browns rank 28th.
  • Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The Browns have allowed 30.67 points per game over their last three road games.
  • The Steelers are averaging 33.5 points per game over their last four home games.
  • The Browns are 0-14 SU in their last 14 games on the road vs the Steelers. (Avg losing margin: 12.71)
  • The Browns are 0-24 SU in their last 24 games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 11.54)
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Steelers' last 10 games at home. (Avg combined score: 60.3)
  • The Browns are 3-0 ATS in their last three games vs the Steelers.
  • The Steelers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games after a bye.
  • The Browns are 12-31-1 ATS in their last 44 games as an underdog.
  • The Browns are 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight divisional road games.
  • The Browns lead the NFL in turnover differential at +10.
Buccaneers at Bengals
  • The Bengals rank 2nd in red-zone TD scoring percentage. Tampa Bay ranks 32nd in opponents' red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • Buccaneers games this season have had an average combined score of 60.5.
  • Over their last three games, the Bengals rank last in net yards per play.
  • Tampa Bay has allowed 40.67 points per game over their last three road games, while the Bengals are allowing 31.5 points per game over their last four games.
  • The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs the Bengals.
  • The Bengals are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games after consecutive losses.
  • The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at home after failing to cover in their most recent home game.
  • The Bengals are 4-0-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games before a bye.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Buccaneers' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 59.71)
  • The Buccaneers are allowing a league-high 327.5 passing yards per game. On the road, they’ve allowed 374.3 passing yards per game. 
Jets at Bears
  • The Bears rank 4th in net yards per play at home. The Jets rank 25th in net yards per play on the road.
  • The Bears are averaging 35.67 points per game over their last three games.
  • The Jets rank last in red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Jets' last four games. (Avg combined score: 55.75)
  • The Bears are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as favorite.
  • The Jets are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games in October.
  • The Jets are 0-4 SU in their last four games vs the Bears. (Avg losing margin: 7.25)
  • The Jets are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games in the early afternoon.
Ravens at Panthers
  • The Ravens rank 4th in red-zone TD scoring percentage. The Panthers rank 29th in opponents’ red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The Panthers rank 28th in net yards per play at home. The Ravens rank 4th in net yards per play overall.
  • The Ravens have allowed just 8.67 points per game over their last three road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Ravens' last five games. (Avg combined score: 34.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Panthers' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 51.0)
  • The Panthers are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games at home. (Avg winning margin: 8.0)
  • The Panthers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Ravens are 6-0 SU in their last six games after a loss.
  • The Ravens are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games in the early afternoon.
Redskins at Giants
  • The Giants are allowing 30.75 points per game over their last four games.
  • The Redskins are 7-17 SU in their last 24 games vs the Giants.
  • The Redskins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Giants.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Redskins' last 13 games vs the Giants. (Avg combined score: 39.15)
  • The Giants are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Redskins' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 39.1)
  • The Redskins are 2-7 SU in their last nine games after a win.
  • The Redskins are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.
Seahawks at Lions
  • Seattle leads the league in red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The Seahawks are allowing just 14.67 points per game over their last three road games.
  • The Seahawks are 5-1 SU in their last six games vs the Lions.
  • The visiting team is 1-5 ATS in its last six games in this matchup.
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the Lions' last 12 games at home. (Avg combined score: 50.08)
  • The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Lions are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games as home favorites.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of the Seahawks' last 18 games after a bye.
  • The Seahawks are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games in Week 8.
  • The Seahawks are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games on the East Coast.
Broncos at Chiefs
  • Chiefs games this season have had an average combined score of 63.14. This is the highest in the league.
  • The Chiefs are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 divisional games.
  • The Chiefs are averaging 38.33 points over their last three games.
  • The Broncos are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games.
  • The Broncos are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Broncos are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games vs the Chiefs. Their average loss margin in those games was 9.83.
  • The Chiefs are 8-0 SU in their last eight games vs their division at home. Their win margin in those games is 11.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Broncos' last five games vs the Chiefs. (Avg combined score: 49.8)
  • Denver is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game at 148.1.
Packers at Rams
  • The Packers have allowed 32.33 points per game over their last three road games, while the Rams have averaged 35.67 points per game over their last three home games.
  • The Rams have a +8.14 1st half point differential. The Packers have a -6.17 1st half point differential.
  • The Rams rank 1st in net yards per play this season.
  • The Rams are 7-0 SU in their last seven games. (Avg winning margin: 15.29)
  • The Packers are 5-0 SU in their last five games vs the Rams. (Avg winning margin: 16.6)
  • The Rams are 3-0 ATS in their last three games as a double-digit favorite.
  • The Packers are 7-2 SU in their last nine games after a bye.
  • The Packers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Packers' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 49.86)
Colts at Raiders
  • The Raiders are averaging just 16.2 points per game over their last 10 games.
  • The Colts are averaging 32.25 points per game over their last four games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Raiders' last 13 games. (Avg combined score: 42.31)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Colts' last 15 games. (Avg combined score: 43.53)
  • The Colts ranks 30th in time of possession on the road.
  • The Colts are 14-6 SU and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The Colts are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs the Raiders.
  • The Raiders are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games after a bye.
  • The Raiders are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The Colts are 0-9 SU in their last nine games after a win.
49ers at Cardinals
  • The 49ers are last in the NFL in turnover differential at -15.
  • The Cardinals are averaging just 11.75 points per game over their last four games at home.
  • Arizona is allowing a league-high 148.3 rushing yards per game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the 49ers' last four games vs the Cardinals. (Avg combined score: 38.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Cardinals' last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 32.33)
  • The 49ers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games vs the Cardinals. (Avg losing margin: 12.0)
  • The 49ers are 0-5 SU in their last five games. (Avg losing margin: 11.0)
  • The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS loss.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the 49ers' last six games. (Avg combined score: 56.0)
  • The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Cardinals rank last in the NFL in time of possession.
Saints at Vikings
  • The road team is 1-6 SU in the last seven SNF games and the total has gone UNDER in five of the last six SNF games.
  • Saints games this season have had an average combined score of 63.14.
  • The Saints rank 30th in opponents’ red-zone TD scoring percentage. The Vikings rank 3rd.
  • The Saints have the best rush defense in the league, allowing just 72.3 rush yards per game, but they allow the fifth-most passing yards.
  • Kirk Cousins had one of his best games of the season vs the Saints last year — 322 yards, 3 TDs.
  • The Vikings are allowing 23.6 points per game this season after allowing just 17.4 last season.
  • The Saints are averaging 35.75 points per game over their last four games.
  • The Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Vikings.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Saints' last 10 games vs the Vikings. (Avg combined score: 51.2)
  • The Vikings are 29-11-1 ATS in their last 41 games at home.
  • The Vikings are 16-4-1 SU in their last 21 games.
  • The Saints are 1-5 SU in their last six games at night.
  • The Saints are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October.
  • The Saints are 5-0 SU in their last five games. (Avg winning margin: 9.8)
Patriots at Bills
  • The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 MNF games.
  • The Patriots are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games in Buffalo.
  • The Patriots won by 20 and 21 in their two games vs the Bills last season.
  • The Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 14 or more points.
  • The Bills are averaging 7.75 points per game over their last four games while the Patriots are averaging 39.67 over their last three games.
  • The Patriots have a 1st half point differential of +7.29. The Bills have a 1st half point differential of -10.
  • The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road vs the Bills.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Patriots' last four games on the road vs the Bills.
  • The Patriots are 6-0 SU in their last six games on the road vs the Bills. (Avg winning margin: 14.17)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bills' last five games. (Avg combined score: 31.0)
  • The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after an ATS loss.
  • The Patriots are 19-5 SU in their last 24 games at night.
  • The Patriots are 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Patriots' last five games vs divisional opponents.

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