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Week 9 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

Week 9 NFL Picks

Several weeks ago we discussed the seductive demon that is betting the OVER. Most of us are fantasy football-friendly, so of course we want more points, but what about the OVER’s ugly stepbrother the UNDER? The sexy thing about betting the OVER is that it can hit at any point. I’ve had OVER bets hit in the first quarter, but more often than not with UNDER bets, you have to sweat it out all the way to the final whistle.

A novice bettor will often look at a low total and simply use that as a justification for betting the OVER, but that’s not a smart move. The smart bet on games with totals of 40 or less is indeed the UNDER, as it’s hit in eight of the last 11 occurrences. 

It just so happens one of these spots is on the board this week between the Bears and the Bills with a total of 37.5, which is the lowest total of the season so far. I’ll be betting the UNDER in this game due to this trend and a few other reasons — most notably, the Bills are averaging just 7.4 points per game over their last five games.

We shouldn’t judge people by their looks and the same goes for betting totals, so let’s hope this trend continues and we’ll all learn a valuable lesson.

On to the good stuff...

BEST BETS FOR WEEK 9

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 9 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, November 1:

  • Chargers +1.5
  • Titans +5.5
  • Saints +1
  • Bears -6.5 1st half spread
  • Chiefs -5.5 1st half spread
  • Bears vs Bills UNDER 37.5 
  • Lions vs Vikings UNDER 49
  • Chargers vs Seahawks UNDER 48
  • Texans vs Broncos UNDER 46
  • Patriots EVEN + OVER 50.5 vs Packers (6-point teaser at -120) — more on this pick here

Week 9 NFL Betting Stats and Trends:

Bears at Bills
  • Eight of the last 11 games with a total set at 40 or lower went UNDER.
  • The Bills are averaging 7.4 points per game over their last five games. The Bears are averaging 32.75 points per game over their last four games.
  • The Bears rank 5th in first-half point differential at +5.86. The Bills rank last at -9.5.
  • The Bills rank last in net yards per play.
  • The Bears lead the NFL in time of possession on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bills' last five games in the early afternoon.
  • The Bears are 3-16 SU in their last 19 games on the road.
  • The Bears are 0-7 SU in their last seven games on the road after consecutive home games.
Buccaneers at Panthers
  • The Panthers beat the Bucs by scores of 17-3 and 22-19 last season. Cam Newton failed to eclipse 160 passing yards in either game.
  • Buccaneers games have an average combined score of 62 this season, the highest in the NFL.
  • The Panthers are averaging 33.33 points per game over their last three home games while the Bucs are allowing 39.75 points per game over their last four road games.
  • The Panthers rank 31st in opponents' red-zone scoring percentage. Tampa Bay ranks 32nd.
  • The Panthers are 9-0 SU in their last nine games at home. (Avg winning margin: 8.78)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Buccaneers' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 61.13)
  • The Buccaneers are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Panthers.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Buccaneers' last four games vs the Panthers. (Avg combined score: 31.25)
  • The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Panthers' last 15 games vs their division at home.
  • The Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as underdog.
  • The Buccaneers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games on the road vs teams with winning records.
Chiefs at Browns
  • Over their last three games, the Chiefs rank third in net yards per play. Over this same span, the Browns rank 31st. The Browns also rank last in net yards per play at home.
  • The Chiefs are averaging 36.75 points per game over their last four road games.
  • The Chiefs rank third in first-half point differential at +6.38. The Browns rank 28th at -5.75.
  • On the road, Patrick Mahomes has thrown 15 TDs and just 2 INTs to go along with a 125.2 QB rating.
  • The average combined score in Chiefs games this season is 61.88. This is the second-highest in the NFL.
  • The Chiefs are 11-3 SU and ATS in their last 14 games as road favorites.
  • The Chiefs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after an ATS loss.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Browns' last 16 games at home. (Avg combined score: 36.31)
  • The Browns are 12-32-1 ATS in their last 45 games as underdog.
  • The Browns are 0-12 SU and ATS in their last 12 games in November.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Chiefs' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 66.33)
Falcons at Redskins
  • The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
  • On the road, Atlanta has a 28.57 red-zone scoring percentage, which is last in the NFL.
  • Washington ranks 2nd in the NFL in time of possession.
  • The Falcons are allowing 34 points per game over their last five games, while the Redskins are allowing just 15.43 points per game over their last seven home games.
  • The Falcons are 5-0 SU in their last five games vs the Redskins. (Avg winning margin: 7.6)
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Redskins' last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 38.55)
  • The Redskins are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games after a win.
  • The Redskins are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games at home.
  • The Falcons are 7-2 SU in their last nine games after a bye.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Falcons' last six games. (Avg combined score: 62.0)
Jets at Dolphins
  • The Jets are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games on the road vs the Dolphins.
  • The Jets rank last in the NFL in red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The Jets are allowing 31.67 points per game over their last three games. The Dolphins are allowing 34 points per game over their last three games.
  • The Jets are 1-4 SU in their last five games vs the Dolphins.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Jets' last three games on the road vs the Dolphins.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Dolphins' last 16 games at home. (Avg combined score: 48.63)
  • The Dolphins are 5-2 SU in their last seven games vs their division at home.
  • The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The Jets are 1-8 SU in their last nine games on the road.
Lions at Vikings
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Lions' last nine games vs the Vikings. (Avg combined score: 34.11)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Vikings' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 40.63)
  • The Lions are 4-16 SU in their last 20 games on the road vs the Vikings.
  • The Vikings are 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in their last nine games before a bye.
  • The Vikings are 5-0-1 SU in their last six games vs divisional opponents. (Avg winning margin: 8.67)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Lions' last nine games on the road. (Avg combined score: 55.56)
  • The Lions are 6-1 SU in their last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
Steelers at Ravens
  • The Steelers rank first in net yards per play on the road.
  • The Steelers are averaging 34 points per game over their last three games while the Ravens are averaging 32.33 points per game over their last three home games.
  • The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs the Ravens.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Steelers' last seven games vs the Ravens. (Avg combined score: 46.43)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Ravens' last six games. (Avg combined score: 37.83)
  • The Ravens are 16-6 SU in their last 22 games vs their division at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Steelers' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 57.22)
  • The Steelers are 8-0-1 SU in their last nine games on the road.
Rams at Saints
  • The Rams beat the Saints 26-20 last season in LA, covering a -2.5-point spread and going UNDER a total of 54. Alvin Kamara had 188 all-purpose yards with two TDs, while Jared Goff threw for 354 yards with two TDs and one INT.
  • The Saints are averaging 34.6 points per game over their last five games. The Rams are averaging 32.83 points over their last six road games.
  • The Rams are 7-0 SU in their last seven games on the road. (Avg winning margin: 15.57)
  • The Saints are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games at home.
  • The Saints are 11-3 SU and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Saints' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 56.13)
  • The Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs the Saints.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Rams' last five games on the road vs the Saints.
  • At home this season, Drew Brees has thrown eight TDs with zero INTs and a 131.1 QB Rating.
Chargers at Seahawks
  • The Chargers lead the NFL in net yards per play. The Seahawks rank 30th in net yards per play at home.
  • The Seahawks are allowing just 16 points per game over their last five games while the Chargers are allowing 14.33 over their last three games.
  • Seattle is first in the NFL in red-zone scoring percentage at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Seahawks' last six games. (Avg combined score: 41.83)
  • The Seahawks are 6-0 SU in their last six games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Seahawks are 44-11 SU in their last 55 games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Chargers' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 51.14)
  • The Chargers are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games after a bye.
  • The Chargers are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games in the late afternoon.
Texans at Broncos
  • The Broncos are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games.
  • The Texans are allowing just 14.33 points per game over their last three games.
  • The Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games before a bye.
  • The Texans are 5-0 SU in their last five games. (Avg winning margin: 9.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Texans' last five games vs the Broncos. (Avg combined score: 46.6)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Texans' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 43.4)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Broncos' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 47.29)
  • The Broncos are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games at home after losing their most recent home game.
Packers at Patriots
  • Green Bay has gone OVER in seven of its last eight night games while New England has gone OVER in seven of its last eight night games at home and in 15 of its last 20 night games overall.
  • The Patriots are 23-8-3 ATS in their last 34 home games.
  • The Packers have allowed 31.5 points per game over their last four road games while the Patriots are averaging 39.67 points per game over their last three home games.
  • The Patriots have the best first-half point differential in the NFL at +7.13. The Packers rank 26th at -5.0.
  • The Patriots are 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at home. (Avg winning margin: 14.82)
  • The Packers are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 11.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Packers' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 50.63)
  • The Packers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road vs the Patriots.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the last seven SNF games.
  • Brady and Rodgers have only faced each other once as starters, on November 30, 2014.  The Packers won 26-21.
Titans at Cowboys
  • The road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 MNF games.
  • The Titans rank first in opponents' red-zone scoring percentage while Dallas ranks second.
  • Titans games this season have had an average of just 33.29 points, which is the lowest in the NFL. Cowboys games are at 37.57, which is the third-lowest.
  • The Titans are averaging 10.33 points per game over their last three games. The Cowboys are allowing 15.33 points per game over their last three home games.
  • The Cowboys are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after a bye.
  • The Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Cowboys.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Cowboys' last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 34.45)
  • The Cowboys are 7-2 SU in their last nine games at night.
  • The Titans are 5-2 SU in their last seven games after consecutive losses.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Titans' last six games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The Titans are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games after an ATS win.
Raiders at 49ers
  • The total has gone OVER in five straight TNF games and the favorite has covered in four straight.
  • The Raiders are averaging just 13.8 points per game over their last five road games.
  • Over their last three games, the Raiders rank 31st in time of possession.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the 49ers' last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 52.82)
  • The 49ers are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games at night.
  • The 49ers are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as favorite.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Raiders' last 14 games. (Avg combined score: 44.29)
  • The Raiders are 0-6 SU in their last six games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 10.83)
  • The Raiders are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after consecutive ATS losses.

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