NRFI Picks Today: Mets-Braves Is Great Matchup

It’s Tuesday, August 12, and we’ve got two first-inning bets on opposite ends of the scoring spectrum. Let’s dive in.

YRFI Pick Today: Cubs vs Blue Jays (-120 at FanDuel)

Jose Berrios gets the start for Toronto, and while his 16-8 NRFI record suggests some success in quieting early innings, his recent form tells a different story. The right-hander has allowed first-inning runs in back-to-back starts and remains susceptible to hard contact, particularly against lineups with power from both sides of the plate.

The Cubs fit that profile perfectly, ranking among the better first-inning offenses in the league and possessing the kind of bats that can jump on mistakes early. On the other hand, Cubs starter Ben Brown has been serviceable (8-7 NRFI) but is also coming off a YRFI, which adds to the possibility of early offense. With two pitchers showing minor cracks and both lineups capable of pouncing, -120 is a fair price to expect at least one run in the opening frame.

NRFI Pick Today: Braves vs Mets (-115 at DraftKings)

Braves vs Mets Odds – 7:10 p.m. ET

Clay Holmes has been the definition of reliable for the Mets, carrying a 19-4 NRFI record into this matchup and consistently limiting hard contact. Spencer Strider hasn’t been quite as dominant overall in 2025, but his 11-4 NRFI mark shows he’s still getting through the first inning clean more often than not. The Mets’ offense, meanwhile, has been one of the slowest-starting units in baseball, batting just .242 in the first inning with the third-best NRFI record in MLB at 69-49. The Braves’ offense hasn’t been overpowering early either, with many of their YRFIs stemming from weaker pitching matchups than what Holmes provides. Given the combination of two capable starters, the Mets’ sluggish first-inning production, and favorable odds at -115, a scoreless opening frame looks like the smart side here.