NBA Playoffs 2025: Rockets vs Warriors First Round Betting Preview

As a result of prevailing over the Memphis Grizzlies in the NBA's play-in tournament on April 15, the Golden State Warriors have clinched the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference and will soon embark on a best-of-seven series with the No. 2 Houston Rockets in this year's playoffs beginning on Sunday, April 20 at the Toyota Center.

Check out Odds Shark's preview for this matchup, complete with betting odds, matchup histories, and final predictions. 

Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Series Winner Odds

Odds courtesy of Sportsbook; Accurate as of April 16, 2025

The Rockets join the Denver Nuggets as the only teams as of writing to possess home-court advantage in the opening round and still be listed as a betting underdog on the moneyline. Perhaps it's due to their lack of experience in this environment compared to their opponent, as this is their first trip to the playoffs since 2019-20 with their first winning record during this stretch, as well. 

The arrival of Jimmy Butler to Golden State ahead of the trade deadline turned a middling team with no legitimate title aspirations into a bonafide contender that could realistically challenge for the Larry O'Brien trophy. All things considered, the hand the Warriors have been dealt after defeating the Grizzlies couldn't have been better, as they'll avoid the Oklahoma City Thunder until the conference finals as long as they can handle business versus Houston first and foremost. 

Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Series Schedule

Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Spread/Total Betting History

The Warriors were barely above the .500 mark in the ATS market this season at 41-39-3, but still managed to cover the spread four times against the Rockets and twice as a betting underdog.

The same rings true in OVER/UNDER totals, as Golden State was 42-41 reaching an OVER with four UNDERs in this particular matchup. 

(Related) 2025 NBA Playoff Series Prices

Houston Rockets Player To Watch: Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson's defense against Stephen Curry will go a long way towards determining the victor in this series. The 22-year-old wing recently said he "hated the Warriors" despite growing up in the Bay Area and even attending Curry's basketball camps as a youngster, according to the Athletic's Anthony Slater and Sam Amick. That was in large part due to being a fan of LeBron James, but even so, there's something to be said about the emotional jolt Thompson may receive from getting to pair off with Curry and attempt to make his life miserable as a defensive pest.

When the Rockets prevailed on April 6 in the Bay Area, Thompson spent 4:13 guarding Curry and held him to 0-of-3 shooting from the perimeter. The former two-time league Most Valuable Player had one of his worst showings of the 2024-25 campaign by the end of the night, finishing with just three points and four turnovers while converting just 1-of-10 from the field across 32 minutes of action.

When Thompson was on the floor in those five meetings with Golden State, Houston's defense held firm to the tune of 95 points allowed per 100 possessions in 144 total minutes. It was an entirely different story whenever he was on the bench, though, as that number blew up to 111.7 points allowed per 100 possessions in 101 minutes. 

He's undoubtedly the anchor of the fifth-best defense in all of basketball, and should head coach Ime Udoka stick him on Curry more often than not, whether it's to kick off the series or before it's too late, momentum could shift in the Rockets' favor and blow up a number of wagers in the process. 

Golden State Warriors Player To Watch: Jonathan Kuminga?

The player on Golden State who averaged the most points versus Houston during the regular season wasn't Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, or even current Miami Heat forward Andrew Wiggins. It was in fact Jonathan Kuminga, who currently finds himself on the outside looking in at a Warriors rotation which doesn't feature him whatsoever, with no real explanation having been offered at this time by head coach Steve Kerr as to why that's the case. 

Kuminga averaged 21.3 points and 6.8 rebounds while shooting 50.8 percent from the field and 42.1 percent from behind the arc against the Rockets on four occasions. That type of production would presumably be welcomed in this setting, but for reasons unbeknownst to the public, the 22-year-old sits in the dog house waiting for his name to be called. Whether or not that actually happens remains to be seen.

If Houston holds down the fort at home and goes into Game 3 with a 2-0 series lead, can Kerr afford to keep Kuminga glued to the bench? The answer is probably no, but that doesn't mean things will suddenly change. This soap opera is one of the more compelling storylines revolving around Golden State at the moment, and one which could hit another gear should it be bounced by the Rockets as Kuminga heads into restricted free agency this summer with no role to be carved out on this roster. 

Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Series Prediction: Warriors 4-2 (+250)

When the going gets tough and the Warriors need someone to take over a game, it's obvious that the ball will end up in the hands of either Curry or Butler when facing adversity. For the Rockets, they have a number of guys who could potentially be that type of player, but no one with a proven track record where it's a no-brainer call to make. This series could make someone in that regard like a Jalen Green or Alperen Sengun if Houston finds itself in a jam, but it's just a waiting game until we witness that before our eyes.

Golden State has been down this rocky road many times before, and while Houston finished five seeds higher in the West, the difference in the win-loss record between the two teams was only four games. In fact, the Warriors owned the third-best overall record coming back from the All-Star break at 20-7 which beat out the Rockets' 18-9 mark, so it's not as though there's a cataclysmic gap of quality between them that would make leaning one way or another a feel-good lock. 

"Playoff Jimmy" is a real thing, and Curry's star consistently shines bright in the playoffs. Betting on Golden State isn't designed to slight Houston and what it accomplished this year, but there's levels to this. This won't be a sweep, nor should it be. The Rockets have adequate size, especially if they can get some production out of veteran center Steven Adams, and point guard Fred VanVleet has championship experience which is beyond beneficial to the young core.

With that being said, though, it's incredibly hard to not envision the Warriors moving forward. Perhaps we'll come to eat those words, but should that come true, it would be a testament to how far Houston has come and a friendly reminder to never underestimate the exuberance of a younger, resilient team that likely feels disrespected after finishing second in the much tougher conference. 

2025 NBA Playoff Previews

Eastern Conference

Western Conference