The more things change, the more they stay the same for the Cleveland Browns. Less than a week after firing head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley, the Browns were on the wrong end of a 37-21 decision to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9. Newly named interim head coach Gregg Williams will look to get his first win as the main bench boss for the Browns when they play host to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Sportsbooks opened the Falcons as 4-point road favorites with a total of 51.
- The Falcons are 1-5 SU in their last six games vs the Browns.
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Browns’ last 17 games at home (avg. combined score: 37.59).
- The Falcons are 7-1 SU in their last eight games on the road vs teams with losing records.
Falcons are finally finding their groove
Only a few weeks ago the Falcons looked to be an afterthought in the NFC South, but the Dirty Birds have rebounded from a 1-4 SU start to win three games in a row and even their record at .500. Julio Jones finally got his first touchdown of the season last week in Atlanta’s decisive 38-14 road win over the Washington Redskins. Matt Ryan has been on a major hot streak and will go up against Cleveland’s 27th-ranked pass defense.
The Falcons, who are eighth in the league with 28.5 points per game, are 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU in their past three road games. Atlanta is also 7-1 SU in its past eight road games against teams with losing records, but the Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games after covering the spread in their previous tilt away from home.
UNDERs are the story when Browns play at FirstEnergy Stadium
The Browns find themselves in a familiar spot in terms of falling out of postseason contention, but rookie signal-caller Baker Mayfield has at least given Cleveland fans a reason for optimism going forward. Mayfield went 29-for-42 for 297 passing yards and two touchdowns with an interception against the Chiefs and has largely impressed in his first year under center. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft has a good opportunity to put up solid numbers against a Falcons defense that’s left a lot to be desired in 2018.
The Browns and Falcons don’t get together much, but when they do, it’s the Browns who have been cashing on the moneyline. Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its past six meetings with Atlanta. The Brownies also have a penchant for going UNDER totals when playing in Cleveland, evidenced by the UNDER going 13-4 in the Browns’ past 17 home games, with an average combined score of 37.6 points.
My pick: take the Falcons as road faves
Many football bettors dislike the idea of taking road favorites, but this is the Browns we’re talking about here. Cleveland may have a new coaching regime, yet this year’s edition of the Browns hasn’t proven that it’s capable of making a step into becoming a competitive team week in and week out. The Falcons may have been written off in September but they’re rounding into form at the right time thanks to Ryan’s explosive offense. Expect that trend to continue in Ohio this weekend.
