Atlanta’s 131 total yards of offense against Baltimore’s defense was the franchise’s lowest output in nearly two decades. The loss dropped the Falcons to 4-8 overall and 3-9 against the spread. They’ve failed to cover in four straight games.
As 13.5-point home favorites, Green Bay’s offense looked lethargic against an Arizona squad it should have demolished. The Packers’ 20-17 outright loss to the Cardinals dropped them to 4-7-1 straight up and against the spread and cost head coach Mike McCarthy his job. The UNDER has hit in five of the Pack’s past six games.
Green Bay opened as a 4.5-point home favorite over the visiting Falcons. However, that spread jumped to Green Bay -6 on Sunday night. The Falcons moneyline opened at +170 and the point total opened at 52.5 before dipping to 47.5.
- The Packers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games at home in December.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Falcons’ last nine games on the road (avg. combined score: 41.89).
- The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as underdog.
Falcons vs Packers Game Center
WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 13
Falcons – Atlanta lost the time of possession battle by nearly 2-to-1, allowing the Ravens to rush for 207 yards on 49 carries. The running clock shortened the game and with the Falcons averaging 2.9 yards per play, they weren’t going to win and/or cover this contest.
The Falcons are averaging just 17 points per game during their four-game losing streak, while allowing nearly 27 per contest.
Baltimore’s secondary held Julio Jones to a season-low two receptions for 18 yards. He was observed getting his hand wrapped during the game, but no injury update has been issued as yet.
Packers –
How To Get Fired 101 from Mike McCarthy:
Packers running back Aaron Jones is averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season. Heading into Week 13’s matchup, he had averaged 83.6 rushing yards per game over his past five with five touchdowns during the stretch. Arizona ranks 29th against the rush as it allows more than 140 ground yards per game. Jones finished with a lack-of-rhythm 11 carries for 36 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals. With wintry conditions, why didn’t Jones touch the ball 20-plus times against a porous rush defense?
This isn’t an excuse for Jones’ misuse against the Cardinals because Green Bay’s offensive line is usually banged up, but it did lose guard Byron Bell and tackle Bryan Bulaga to knee injuries during the Cardinals game. Left tackle David Bakhtiari was active against Arizona despite injuring his left knee twice in Week 12. At best, Aaron Rodgers’ offensive line health is at 80 to 85 percent.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: SNAP A STREAK
Heading into this matchup, the Packers have lost three straight games, while the Falcons are in the midst of a four-game skid. Since 2014, when a matchup features two teams that have lost three or more consecutive games, the home team is 10-10 straight up and 13-7 against the spread. However, since 2010, the home team is just 15-24 SU and 17-22 ATS.
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN FORECAST
Sunny with temperatures only reaching the mid-20s and 10 percent chance of rain. Winds will be 10-15 miles per hour. It’s worth noting Atlanta has played its last three games inside domed stadiums.
Green Bay’s Mason Crosby missed what would have been a game-tying 49-yard field goal as time expired. He’s now 22-for-29 on field goals with the caveat that four of those misses came in one game. Crosby is 27 of 29 on extra points. Atlanta’s Matt Bryant is 15-for-15 on field goals and 20 of 21 on extra-point attempts this season.
MY LEAN
Aaron Rodgers is going to do everything in his power to prove that firing Mike McCarthy was the right decision. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Rodgers produce one of his best games of the season and that begins with a balanced attack featuring more Aaron Jones, which will open up the passing game to torch the weak Falcons secondary. Neither team is great, but there’s a reason that Sportsbook line jumped from -4.5 to -6. The Falcons are dead and playing in 20-degree weather isn’t going to help resuscitate their season.
