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Falcons Primed to Bounce Back vs Packers

Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers Betting Odds

Week 4 seems early to be facing a must-win game, but it’s hard to argue given the Atlanta Falcons’ ice-cold start as they visit Green Bay in the Monday nighter. Atlanta (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) has had a catastrophic fourth-quarter collapse in each of its past two games and is a one-touchdown underdog against a Green Bay team (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) that has played sensationally.

Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers
  • Date/Time: October 5, 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Lambeau Field
  • TV Coverage: ESPN
  • Opening Odds: Packers -6 | O/U 57.5 (Line History)
  • Falcons vs Packers Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The Packers opened this matchup as a 6-point favorite, but the line has since climbed to either -7 or -7.5 depending on the sportsbook. The total has held steady at a sky-high 57.5.

Atlanta News & Notes

If NFL games were three quarters long, Falcons head coach Dan Quinn’s job would be among the safest in football. But one week after squandering a 15-point lead late in a stunning loss to Dallas, Atlanta frittered away a 16-point fourth-quarter advantage in a setback to the Chicago Bears that has Quinn among the top picks at most sportsbooks to be the next NFL coach fired.

From a daily fantasy perspective, it’s hard to know who to trust for the Falcons this week. Quarterback Matt Ryan and star wide receiver Calvin Ridley are priced through the roof, running back Todd Gurley has underachieved and is a non-factor in the passing game, and wideout Julio Jones is priced up and banged up. This might be the week to avoid Atlanta players in DFS altogether.

Green Bay News & Notes

Rumors that Aaron Rodgers might be on the downside of the hill have been effectively put to rest over the opening three games of the season. Rodgers has looked like a man possessed, averaging 295.7 passing yards per game with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions; he’s worth considering in DFS against an Atlanta defense allowing 350.3 yards per game through the air.

The big question is: Who will you stack with Rodgers? If Davante Adams returns from a hamstring injury that kept him out of Sunday’s victory over the New Orleans Saints, he’s an easy choice despite his high salary. If he can’t go, you’ll need to roster Allen Lazard, whose salary saw a significant jump following last week’s 146-yard performance but is still worth the investment here.

Betting Pick: Falcons +7 (-110)

The Falcons can’t possibly be so terrible in the fourth quarter again, can they? We don’t think so; this is still a supremely talented team and should at least make things difficult for the Packers.

Shark Bites
  • The Falcons are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 October games.
  • The OVER is 4-0 in the Falcons’ last 4 games.