NFL

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Atlanta
Falcons
1 - 3
Pittsburgh
Steelers
1 - 2 - 1
October 07, 2018, 1:00 PM EDT
 | Acrisure Stadium

Game Preview

Atlanta
Falcons
1 - 3
Pittsburgh
Steelers
1 - 2 - 1
October 07, 2018, 1:00 PM EDT
 | Acrisure Stadium
  • If you had told me coming into a Week 5 matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers that their combined records would be 2-5-1 SU and 2-6 ATS through eight games, I would’ve asked, “who got injured?” Well, the only thing hurt right now is bettors’ bankrolls when backing these two would-be contenders as each team is falling short of expectations when it comes to betting records and postseason aspirations.

    The Steelers opened as 3-point favorites at Heinz Field although home-field advantage may seem hollow considering they’ve dropped three straight games in Pittsburgh, including last year’s playoffs.

    SHARK BITES
    • The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games as favorites.
    • The Falcons are allowing 30.5 points per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL.
    • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Steelers’ last nine games at home.

    Falcons vs Steelers Game Center

    Heinz Field Is No Longer a Safe Haven for Steelers

    If there was ever a point where the Steelers felt they needed to get Le’Veon Bell back in the lineup, it was after their game vs the Ravens in Week 4. The Steelers were tied at 14 going into the half but for the remaining 30 minutes of play, they could not put a drive together or convert a third down. Pittsburgh is a shell of itself with its rushing attack as it averages 72 yards per game (ranked 29th) on the ground with James Conner, who is not fitting the bill so far in his young career. To his credit, it would help if the Steelers didn’t have to abandon the run game so early in games as they spotted the Chiefs and Ravens a combined 35 points at home before getting on the scoreboard.

    Heinz Field is a historic site of football tradition and a winning culture but for Steelers backers, they know that isn’t the case lately. Pittsburgh has lost three straight games at home (including last year’s playoffs) for the first time since 2012 and the Steelers don’t have the excuse this time of Ben Roethlisberger being hurt. Going back to last season, the Steelers are a woeful 0-6 ATS in their last six games as home favorites. Now, they welcome a Falcons squad that is crushing opposing secondaries and Pittsburgh allows an ugly 305 yards passing per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL.

    Luckily for the Steelers, their passing game looks on point through four games and they can exploit a banged-up Falcons secondary that is allowing 284 yards per game (ranked 25th). Where Pitt can trip itself up, though, is on third down as it ranks 28th in the league in third-down conversion rate. That stat is the reason why the Steelers miss Bell the most because he’s a running back who can chew up yards and put them in better positions to convert. Although I tend to disregard historical trends when it comes to teams in different conferences, for what it’s worth, the Steelers have owned this matchup as they’re 11-1-1 SU in their last 13 games vs the Falcons and 6-0-1 when these teams clash at Heinz Field.

    Disappointment = Atlanta

    For a team that has so much talent on both sides of the ball, no team is more frustrating to wager on lately than the Atlanta Falcons. Since the 28-3 meltdown in Super Bowl 51, the Falcons are 12-10 SU and 9-13 ATS in 22 games (including playoffs). That record looks more like it should belong to a lower-level franchise like the Raiders or Buccaneers but this is a team that has been a darling among NFL analysts who peg the Falcons as contenders.

    This season, their offense has looked explosive at times as they rank sixth in points per game in the NFL (29.0) and are keeping drives alive by ranking fourth in third-down conversion at 48.1 percent. But as good as the offense has looked, the defense has been on the opposite side of the spectrum, ranking 29th in points allowed per game (30.5). A troubling stat for Dan Quinn’s defense is that Atlanta has yet to force a fumble through four games and has caused a total of just four turnovers. That’s a recipe for disaster for a team that needs its defense to step up and to stop putting so much pressure on the offense to convert.

    The way this game is shaping up, it seems like the only way for Atlanta to win this game is to outscore Pittsburgh and that could be a daunting task when its defense doesn’t want to show up. At this point, I may stay away from the spreads altogether as neither team can be trusted to close the deal.

    Poor Defenses Should Lead to OVER

    The total opened at 57.5 in this matchup, the highest total for Week 5 games, and while that number seems overwhelmingly daunting, it may be the best play. The OVER has hit in five of Pittsburgh’s last six games and seven of its last nine games at home with an average combined score of 60.5 points per game. I expect another shootout in the Steel City with the loser eventually missing the playoffs.

    My Pick is…

    To take the OVER. This may be a gut call but these defenses have looked terrible through four weeks and couldn’t stop a high school offense from throwing the ball on them. I think this is the marquee game in Week 5 and expect an offensive explosion.

Odds

Sunday, October 7 Sun Oct 7


Opening
Current

Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Opening
+4
-110
+160
o56
-110
-4
-110
-185
u56
-110
Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Current
--
- -
--
--
- -
--

Edge Finder

21.47
Total Score
18.12
158.76
Passing Yards
200.53
159.88
Rushing Yards
122.18
30:02
Time on Field
31:31
59.47
Number of Plays
65.24
5.36
Yards Per Play
4.95
21.47
Total Score
18.12
3.94
First Quarter
3.53
6.29
Second Quarter
6.59
5.18
Third Quarter
2.47
5.88
Fourth Quarter
5.35
158.76
Passing Yards
200.53
24.41
Pass Attempts
33.59
15.12
Pass Completions
21.41
2.18
Sacks
2.24
13.41
Sack Yards
14.82
10.50
Yards Per Pass
9.37
159.88
Rushing Yards
122.18
32.88
Rush Attempts
29.41
4.86
Yards Per Rush
4.15
0.53
Interceptions
0.82
1.24
Fumbles
0.94
0.71
Fumbles Lost
0.29
1.24
Total Turnovers
1.12
4.00
Penalties
5.53
34.94
Penalty Yards
41.82
30:02
Time on Field
31:31
59.47
Number of Plays
65.24
5.36
Yards Per Play
4.95
3.65
Punts
4.06
45.88
Punt Average
44.54
61.76
Return Yards
48.35

Head To Head

ATL
Stat Type PIT
1-4-1
Record
4-1-1
4-2
ATS
2-4
2-4
O/U
2-4
21.67
Score
24.50
104.33
Rush Yds
111.50
37.83
Pass Attempts
31.17
61.23
Completion %
71.12
243.17
Passing Yds
289.67
347.5
Total Yds
401.17
1.33
Turnovers
1.33
ATL
Stat Type PIT
1-2
Record
2-1
1-2
ATS
2-1
1-2
O/U
1-2
23.33
Score
26.67
109.33
Rush Yds
81.00
37.00
Pass Attempts
32.00
63.96
Completion %
71.88
257.67
Passing Yds
327.33
367
Total Yds
408.33
1.33
Turnovers
1.33
Dec 14/14 (1 of 10)
ATL
Stat Type PIT
Home
Away
20
Score
27
+3
ATS
-3
55 o
O/U
55 u
97
Rush Yds
45
37
Pass Attempts
35
70.27
Completion %
77.14
310
Passing Yds
353
407
Total Yds
398
1
Turnovers
0
Sep 12/10 (2 of 10)
ATL
Stat Type PIT
Away
Home
9
Score
15
-1.5
ATS
+1.5
39.5 o
O/U
39.5 u
58
Rush Yds
143
44
Pass Attempts
26
61.36
Completion %
69.23
237
Passing Yds
211
295
Total Yds
354
1
Turnovers
1
Oct 22/06 (3 of 10)
ATL
Stat Type PIT
Home
Away
41
Score
38
+3
ATS
-3
39 o
O/U
39 u
173
Rush Yds
55
30
Pass Attempts
35
60.00
Completion %
68.57
226
Passing Yds
418
399
Total Yds
473
2
Turnovers
3
Nov 10/02 (4 of 10)
ATL
Stat Type PIT
Away
Home
34
Score
34
+5
ATS
-5
42 o
O/U
42 u
182
Rush Yds
182
46
Pass Attempts
41
52.17
Completion %
68.29
265
Passing Yds
463
447
Total Yds
645
2
Turnovers
3
Oct 25/99 (5 of 10)
ATL
Stat Type PIT
Away
Home
9
Score
13
+5.5
ATS
-5.5
37.5 o
O/U
37.5 u
49
Rush Yds
111
34
Pass Attempts
21
58.82
Completion %
61.90
187
Passing Yds
115
236
Total Yds
226
1
Turnovers
1
Oct 27/96 (6 of 10)
ATL
Stat Type PIT
Home
Away
17
Score
20
+5.5
ATS
-5.5
42.5 o
O/U
42.5 u
67
Rush Yds
133
36
Pass Attempts
29
66.67
Completion %
79.31
234
Passing Yds
178
301
Total Yds
311
1
Turnovers
0
Sep 27/93 (7 of 10)
ATL
Stat Type PIT
Home
Away
17
Score
45
-3
ATS
+3
44 o
O/U
44 u
0
Rush Yds
0
0
Pass Attempts
0
79.31
Completion %
79.31
0
Passing Yds
0
0
Total Yds
0
0
Turnovers
0
Nov 4/90 (8 of 10)
ATL
Stat Type PIT
Away
Home
9
Score
21
+5.5
ATS
-5.5
44 o
O/U
44 u
0
Rush Yds
0
0
Pass Attempts
0
79.31
Completion %
79.31
0
Passing Yds
0
0
Total Yds
0
0
Turnovers
0
Oct 4/87 (9 of 10)
ATL
Stat Type PIT
Home
Away
12
Score
28
+3
ATS
-3
O/U
0
Rush Yds
0
0
Pass Attempts
0
79.31
Completion %
79.31
0
Passing Yds
0
0
Total Yds
0
0
Turnovers
0
Oct 28/84 (10 of 10)
ATL
Stat Type PIT
Away
Home
10
Score
35
+3
ATS
-3
42 o
O/U
42 u
0
Rush Yds
0
0
Pass Attempts
0
79.31
Completion %
79.31
0
Passing Yds
0
0
Total Yds
0
0
Turnovers
0

Team Records

ATL
Record PIT
1-3
All
1-2-1
1-2
Home
0-2
0-1
Away
1-0-1
1-3
ATS
1-3
1-2
ATS Home
0-2
0-1
ATS Away
1-1
3-1
O/U
3-1
3-0
O/U Home
1-1
0-1
O/U Away
2-0
ATL
Record PIT
1-2
All
0-2-1
1-1
Home
0-2
0-1
Away
0-0-1
1-2
ATS
0-3
1-1
ATS Home
0-2
0-1
ATS Away
0-1
2-1
O/U
2-1
2-0
O/U Home
1-1
0-1
O/U Away
1-0
ATL
Record PIT
1-1
All
0-1-1
1-1
Home
0-1
0-0
Away
0-0-1
1-1
ATS
0-2
1-1
ATS Home
0-1
0-0
ATS Away
0-1
0-0
O/U
0-0
0-0
O/U Home
0-0
0-0
O/U Away
0-0
ATL
Record PIT
1-3
All
1-2-1
1-2
Home
0-2
0-1
Away
1-0-1
1-3
ATS
1-3
1-2
ATS Home
0-2
0-1
ATS Away
1-1
3-1
O/U
3-1
3-0
O/U Home
1-1
0-1
O/U Away
2-0

Gametime Weather

Weather
12:00 pm EDT Partly Cloudy
25ºC / 77ºF
76% Humidity
0% Precipitation
36% Cloud Cover
Wind Impact Stadium Type Open
Field Image
Arrow Image 5
mph

Injuries

Name Position Inj Desc
Grady JarrettDTIR; is out for season, ACL
Mack HollinsWRIs "?" Sunday vs Tampa Bay, Ankle
Mike HughesCBIs "?" Sunday vs Tampa Bay, Hand
Kaleb McGaryTLeft last game, is "?" Sunday vs Tampa Bay, Knee
A.J. TerrellCBLeft last game, is "?" Sunday vs Tampa Bay, Concussion
Josh AliWRIR, Ankle
Name Position Inj Desc
Kwon AlexanderLBIs out for season, Achilles
Keanu NealSIR, Ribs
Isaac SeumaloGLeft last game, is "?" Thursday vs New England, Shoulder
Mitchell TrubiskyQBIs expected to start Thursday vs New England, None
Montravius AdamsDTIs "?" Thursday vs New England, Ankle
Cole HolcombLBIR, Knee
Elijah RileySIR, Ankle
Kenny PickettQBIs out indefinitely, Ankle

Last 10 Games

Date Opp Score SU Line/Total ATS OFF. RUSH OFF. PASS OFF. TOTAL DEF. RUSH DEF. PASS DEF. TOTAL TO
Sep 30, 2018CIN36-37L-3.5/52.5L/O9240349599308407-1
Sep 23, 2018NO37-43L-1.5/54L/O483594071433915340
Sep 16, 2018CAR31-24W-5.5/43.5W/O1702724421213184390
Sep 6, 2018PHI12-18LEv/44L/U74225299113119232-1
Jan 13, 2018PHI10-15L-2.5/40.5L/U8619528196238334-2
Jan 6, 2018LAR26-13W+6/48W/U124198322115246361-2
Dec 31, 2017CAR22-10W-5/44.5W/U6031137187161248-3
Dec 24, 2017NO13-23L+5/51L/U67264331862293151
Dec 18, 2017TB24-21W-7/49.5L/U20120941084289373-1
Dec 7, 2017NO20-17W-2.5/51.5W/U132211343502563062
View Game Logs
Date Opp Score SU Line/Total ATS OFF. RUSH OFF. PASS OFF. TOTAL DEF. RUSH DEF. PASS DEF. TOTAL TO
Sep 30, 2018BAL14-26L-3/51L/U19265284963554511
Sep 24, 2018TB30-27W+1/55W/O7833541363392455-3
Sep 16, 2018KC37-42L-4/52.5L/O33442475127322449-1
Sep 9, 2018CLE21-21T-3.5/41L/O1593134721771503275
Jan 14, 2018JAC42-45L-7/40.5L/O834625451642143782
Dec 31, 2017CLE28-24W-5/38.5L/O1242243481022723740
Dec 25, 2017HOU34-6W-9/45.5W/U10422633017651227-2
Dec 17, 2017NE24-27L+2.5/52.5L/U143270413772833600
Dec 10, 2017BAL39-38W-6/43L/O59486545152261413-1
Dec 4, 2017CIN23-20W-4.5/42.5L/O922823741302233531
View Game Logs
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