As we get ready for the Super Bowl, sportsbooks have been busy setting the odds for the upcoming playoff matchup.
Monitoring line movement is one of the best ways to assess where the money is going for NFL matchups. There are two types of bettors that frequent online sportsbooks: the public and the sharps.
The betting public is your average joe who likes to wager casually on football. The public will bet mostly on favorites and tends to pay more attention to the teams that are receiving the most media attention.
On the other hand, sharp bettors tend to go against the grain and find value where not many others do. Books will shift lines depending on where the sharps are placing their bets. The sharpest bettors get their action in shortly after the odds are released, as they anticipate which way the lines will move.
So, which lines are on the move for the Super Bowl? Here’s a look at this week’s game.
Note: Odds courtesy of [ol-sportsbook-bp:48:Bovada:26:Bodog].
NFL Line Movement
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Rams
Opening Line: LA Rams -4.0
Thursday Line: LA Rams -4.0
There hasn’t been any line movement in this game so we will discuss the line in general and where the money is going.
First off, the Super Bowl will feature the 15-5 Los Angeles Rams against the 13-7 Cincinnati Bengals. Both of these teams are coming off comeback victories in their conference championship games.
The Rams have just announced that tight end, Tyler Higbee, will not be playing in this Super Bowl which is big news. As for the rest of the team, running back Cam Akers and wide receiver Van Jefferson Jr. are both probable in this one.
For the Bengals, their tight end, C.J. Uzomah is probable to play in this one. Uzomah took a low hit that knocked him out of the AFC Championship for the majority of the game. Other notable players that may be out is headlined by defensive tackle Mike Daniels who is questionable with a groin injury.
The line hasn’t moved at all from the opening, but let’s see where the money is. According to Odds Shark’s computer picks, 60 percent of the money has come in on the Rams’ opening spread of -4.0. This is significant to know because as the money continues to come in on the Rams, that line could move up to 4.5 (which it is already set at in some sportsbooks).
This Super Bowl matchup is an intriguing one as these teams have only played eachother seven times all time with their last matchup coming in 2019. The Rams have gotten the better of the Bengals head-to-head going 4-3 SU and 5-1-1 ATS.
Some other important trends to note: The Bengals have been very good on the road this season, going 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS. The Bengals are playing their best football at the right time, winning six of their last seven games and covering the spread in all seven of those games. Meanwhile, the Rams, who are the 'home team' in this one (game is in LA), have been solid at home, going 7-3 SU, but are only 5-5 ATS.
Another important note is that Cincinnati has really struggled against teams in the NFC going 2-11-1 SU in their last 14 games within that conference. In the NFC West division, Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in their last five.
The Rams should and will be the favorite going into this one but it will be interesting to see where the line goes as we approach kickoff. Keep an eye on this line as that half-point swing may help you or hurt you in regard to what you are betting
For more details on where the public is betting and how it has influenced the lines, go to our NFL Consensus Picks page.
|Game||Opening Line||Current Line|
|Cincinnati vs LA Rams||LA Rams -4.0||LA Rams -4.0|
Odds as of February 11 at [ol-sportsbook-bp:48:Bovada:26:Bodog]
Looking for the sportsbook that’s right for you to get some money on NFL games? Check out our Sportsbook Review page. To learn more about how the point spread is used in NFL games, be sure to visit our What is a Point Spread? article.
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