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Biggest NFL Line Movement of Week 7: Plenty of Money Coming In On Falcons

Plenty of money coming in on the Falcons in Week 7's biggest NFL Line Movement.

As we continue through Week 7 of the NFL season, sportsbooks have been busy adjusting the odds on the upcoming slate of games.

Monitoring line movement is one of the best ways to assess where the money is going for NFL matchups. There are two types of bettors that frequent online sportsbooks: the public and the sharps.

The betting public is your average joe who likes to casually wager on football. The public will bet mostly on favorites and tends to pay more attention to the teams that are receiving the most media attention.

On the other hand, sharp bettors tend to go against the grain and find value where not many others do. Books will shift lines depending on where the sharps are placing their bets. The sharpest bettors get their action in shortly after the odds are released, as they anticipate which way the lines will move.

So, which lines are on the move in Week 7? Here’s a breakdown of the biggest odds changes of the week.

Note: Odds courtesy of Bovada.

Biggest NFL Line Movement Of The Week

Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins

Opening Line: Miami -3.0

Friday Line: Miami +2.5

The game with the largest line movement in Week 7 is the Miami Dolphins as they host the Atlanta Falcons. The Dolphins have been arguably the most disappointing team in the NFL to this point going 1-5 through six games after going 10-6 last season. The Falcons, on the other hand, are coming off a bye week so they have had plenty of time to prepare for this one.

The line has moved 5.5 points from the opening, so let's see where the money is at. According to Odds Sharks computer picks, only fifty-six percent of the money is coming from the Falcons. This essentially means that the sharps are favoring the Falcons in this one.

Looking at recent trends, both teams haven't looked very good this season. The Falcons are 2-3 ATS overall, and 1-1 ATS on the road. While the Dolphins are 2-4 ATS overall, and 0-2 ATS at home. The Dolphins were the best team ATS in the NFL last season. Atlanta has had success against the Dolphins going 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against them. However, the Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus an AFC East opponent.

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals

Opening Line: Cardinals -14.5

Friday Line: Cardinals -17.5

Another game with a massive line movement is the Texans heading to Arizona to play the Cardinals. This makes a lot of sense since the Texans have lost their last five games by a total of 96 points. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been red-hot as they remain the only undefeated team in the NFL and have an NFC best plus-85 point differential.

This line movement makes a ton of sense as these teams appear to be going in completely opposite directions. However, you would think with the large movement in the line, that a high percentage of people would be putting money on the Cardinals. But that is not the case, as it is much closer than you would expect.

Only fifty-six percent of the money is coming on the Cardinals. For the line to move that drastically, with the money being so close, can only mean one thing. That is that the sharp bettors are hammering the Cards in this one.

Looking at recent trends, the teams have not played against each other since 2017. The Texans are 3-3 ATS so far this season but are 1-2 on the road. The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS this season, but only 1-1 at home.

This spread is one of the bigger spreads we have seen this year so it is difficult to pick a side. The Cardinals should win this game handily, but it is just a matter of by how much.

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Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opening Line: Buccaneers -10.0

Friday Line: Buccaneers -12.5

Here is another game with a double-digit spread where the line continues to move in their favor. The Buccaneers are coming into this one off a long week as they played last Thursday. While the Bears are coming into this one coming off a double-digit home loss to the Packers.

This line movement also makes a lot of sense because of the situations that both of these teams are in and the way they match up. 

The Bears have arguably the worst offence in the NFL rank last in total yards and third last in total points per game. The Bucs, however, rank first in the NFL in passing yards per game and third in total points per game

Looking at where the money is going, sixty-two percent of it is currently on the Bucs, which is why the line has moved in their favor. Once again a line movement this dramatic must be due to the sharp bettors getting their money in early on the Bucs.

Looking at recent trends, the two teams faced off last season where the Bears actually beat the Bucs 20-19. The Bucs have had success at home this season going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in those games. The Bears haven't had great success on the road going 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS in those games.

Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams

Opening Line: Rams -13.5 

Friday Line: Rams -16.0

Here we are with yet another double-digit favorite where the line has moved even higher. Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff are playing against their old teams, so there is a little extra storyline in this one.

Thus far, the line has moved in favor of the Rams, which is no surprise. The Rams have looked like one of the best teams in football, while the Lions are the only winless team in the NFL, and haven't looked good at all.

Seventy percent of the money is currently on the Rams, which is why this line has moved a full 2.5 points. In their most recent matchup in 2018, the Rams beat the Lions by a score of 30-16.

Looking at recent trends, Los Angeles has been solid at home early on, starting the season 2-1 ATS and going 10-3 SU in their last 13 home games dating back to last year. The Bills have also been great against conference opponents, going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when facing an NFC opponent.

The Lions, meanwhile, have gone 0-6 SU to start the season, but haven't been too bad ATS. The Lions are 3-3 ATS so far but only 1-2 on the road. The Lions have struggled mightily against the Rams going 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against them.

These trends are important to get a grasp on when considering whether to put money down on a game.

For more details on where the public is betting and how it has influenced the lines, go to our NFL Consensus Picks page.

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NFL Line Movement - Week 6
GameOpening LineCurrent Line
Kansas City @ TennesseeKansas City -3.0Kansas City -4.5
Washington @ Green BayGreen Bay -7.5Green Bay -8.0
Carolina @ NY GiantsCarolina -3.0Carolina -3.0
NY Jets @ New EnglandNew England -7.0New England -7.0
Atlanta @ MiamiMiami -3.0Miami +2.5
Cincinnati @ BaltimoreBaltimore -7.0Baltimore -6.5
Detroit @ LA RamsLA Rams -13.5LA Rams -16.0
Philadelphia @ Las VegasLas Vegas -2.5Las Vegas -3.0
Houston @ ArizonaArizona -14.5Arizona -17.5
Chicago @ Tampa BayTampa Bay -10Tampa Bay -12.5
Indianapolis @ San FranciscoSan Francisco -3.5San Francisco -4.0
New Orleans @ SeattleNew Orleans -3.0New Orleans -4.5

Odds as of October 22 at Bovada

Looking for the sportsbook that’s right for you to get some money on NFL games? Check out our Sportsbook Review page. To learn more about how the point spread is used in NFL games, be sure to visit our What is a Point Spread? article.