NFL

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots

Los Angeles
Chargers
13 - 4
New England
Patriots
11 - 5
January 13, 2019, 1:05 PM EST
 | Gillette Stadium

Game Preview

Los Angeles
Chargers
13 - 4
New England
Patriots
11 - 5
January 13, 2019, 1:05 PM EST
 | Gillette Stadium
  • As a perfect example of “something’s got to give,” the New England Patriots put their unbeaten home record on the line in a divisional-round matchup against a team of road warriors in the Los Angeles Chargers.

    The Patriots may have had their ups and downs this season but there’s no debate about their ability to win at Gillette Stadium, where they finished 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in eight games and where they haven’t lost a playoff game since 2013. On the other hand, the Chargers are 8-1 SU and ATS in nine road games this year and haven’t lost this season outside of California.

    The Patriots opened as 5-point favorites (since moved to -4) with a total of 48.5 (since moved to 47).

    SHARK BITES
    • The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in 6 road playoff games with Philip Rivers as the starter.
    • The Patriots are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as home favorites.
    • The UNDER has hit in 8 of the Patriots’ last 9 games (avg. combined score: 40.8).

    Chargers vs Patriots Game Center

    The Betting Case for the Chargers

    After suffocating the Ravens in the wild-card round and pushing their record to 8-1 SU and ATS in nine road games this season, the Chargers may be the best team left in the AFC that could dethrone New England. Los Angeles’s defense sacked Lamar Jackson seven times in that game and held the Ravens to a total of 11 first downs.

    The Chargers pass rush and Philip Rivers’ passing ability would be the two areas where they’ll have the edge in this game. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa seemed like they were in the backfield all day during the wild-card game and, historically, the way to beat the Patriots is to rush four linemen and get constant pressure without blitzing because Tom Brady is one of the few quarterbacks left in the NFL who is strictly a pocket passer. Disrupt Brady’s timing and it will open up the ability for the secondary to close in on the opposing receivers.

    Outside of Patrick Mahomes and Ben Roethlisberger, the Patriots haven’t faced a quarterback with the capability of Rivers this season. His role will be vital in exploiting the Pats defense through the air as New England allowed 29 passing touchdowns this season and ranked 22nd in passing yards allowed per game. Compared to how the Patriots fare against the run, allowing seven rushing touchdowns (ranked second) and 112.7 yards per game (ranked 11th), the secondary is the weak spot. 

    Speaking of Rivers, while his playoff history isn’t spotless by any means, he still keeps games close. In six road playoff games in his career, the Chargers are 3-3 SU and an excellent 5-1 ATS. That being said, OddsShark pays me to remind bettors that the Chargers went into Foxborough last season in Week 8 and while the final score was 21-13, the game wasn’t even close. The Patriots led 21-7 at the start of the fourth quarter and Rivers was 17-for-30 for 212 yards passing.

    The Betting Case for the Patriots

    While the case may be simple and almost too obvious, it doesn’t mean that it’s wrong. The Patriots just don’t lose at home. New England went 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in eight home games this season with an average win margin of 16.2 points. Three of those games were against dumpster fires – the Jets, Bills and Dolphins – but the remaining wins were over the Chiefs, Colts, Texans, Packers and Vikings, so it’s not like they were handed a cupcake schedule to get to this point.

    When looking at the overall season stats for the Patriots, they still finished in the top 10 in both points scored and points allowed per game and most of the stats should be fairly even, given how dominant they were at home and how shoddy they were on the road. I tend to think the Patriots do their most damage when given an extra week to prepare and they haven’t lost a home playoff game since 2013.

    In the Brady-Belichick era, the trends to support a Patriots win are overwhelming, to say the least:

    • 12-2 SU and 8-5-1 ATS in 14 divisional games.
    • 19-9 SU and 13-15 ATS in 28 playoff games during the day.
    • 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in last six playoff games at home.
    • 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in last nine playoff games at home.
    • 19-3 SU and 12-9-1 ATS in 22 home playoff games since 2000.

    Another factor that aids the Patriots is the weather at Gillette Stadium. Early weather reports for Sunday are calling for a chilly day with potential for rain and snow showers. The Chargers as a West Coast team may be able to overcome that considering they beat the Chiefs and Steelers in colder weather but the Patriots are built for the elements and have no issue playing in less than ideal conditions.

    Patriots Games Leading to UNDERs

    The total opened at 48.5 (since moved to 47) and riding the UNDER with Patriots games lately has proven to be a profitable endeavor. The UNDER has hit in eight of the Patriots’ last nine games with an average combined score of 40.8 points per game. The UNDER has also hit in four of the Chargers’ last five games (including playoffs) with an average combined score of 41.6 points per game.

    With the weather expected to be choppy and considering the fact that both of these teams rank in the top 10 in points allowed per game, another UNDER could be in the cards.

    Where I’m Laying My Money

    I’m taking the Chargers to cover the spread in this game but only if the line stays above +3.5. Being able to stay within a field goal will be imperative for spread bettors like myself and I think given how the Chargers have played this season, this will not be the typical walkover game like the Patriots are accustomed to in the playoffs.

    Out of the three remaining AFC teams in the playoffs, the Chargers pose the biggest threat to knock off New England at Gillette Stadium. Underdogs have also been profitable on the spread in the playoffs thus far as all four dogs covered the spread last weekend.

Odds

Sunday, January 13 Sun Jan 13


Opening
Current

Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Opening
+5
-110
+180
o48.5
-110
-5
-110
-215
u48.5
-110
Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Current
+4
-116
+165
o47.5
-113
-4
-104
-190
u47.5
-107

Edge Finder

23.39
Total Score
21.41
268.72
Passing Yards
207.94
88.39
Rushing Yards
106.65
30:48
Time on Field
29:10
67.94
Number of Plays
59.18
5.26
Yards Per Play
5.32
23.39
Total Score
21.41
3.94
First Quarter
2.71
11.28
Second Quarter
6.24
2.89
Third Quarter
6.82
5.11
Fourth Quarter
5.65
268.72
Passing Yards
207.94
41.89
Pass Attempts
31.76
28.33
Pass Completions
21.06
2.33
Sacks
2.41
12.61
Sack Yards
16.41
9.48
Yards Per Pass
9.87
88.39
Rushing Yards
106.65
23.72
Rush Attempts
25.00
3.73
Yards Per Rush
4.27
0.56
Interceptions
0.82
1.11
Fumbles
1.35
0.50
Fumbles Lost
0.53
1.06
Total Turnovers
1.35
4.89
Penalties
6.12
37.61
Penalty Yards
49.47
30:48
Time on Field
29:10
67.94
Number of Plays
59.18
5.26
Yards Per Play
5.32
4.33
Punts
4.71
43.46
Punt Average
41.74
61.28
Return Yards
97.53

Head To Head

LAC
Stat Type NE
3-7
Record
7-3
4-6
ATS
6-4
3-7
O/U
3-7
20.70
Score
22.60
116.90
Rush Yds
93.80
32.10
Pass Attempts
40.50
61.99
Completion %
64.94
227.00
Passing Yds
267.90
343.9
Total Yds
361.7
2.10
Turnovers
1.60
LAC
Stat Type NE
0-3
Record
3-0
0-3
ATS
3-0
1-2
O/U
1-2
16.00
Score
26.33
102.67
Rush Yds
92.67
34.33
Pass Attempts
43.67
64.08
Completion %
69.47
242.33
Passing Yds
345.67
345
Total Yds
438.33
2.00
Turnovers
0.67
Oct 29/17 (1 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
13
Score
21
+6.5
ATS
-6.5
48 o
O/U
48 u
157
Rush Yds
97
30
Pass Attempts
47
56.67
Completion %
68.09
192
Passing Yds
317
349
Total Yds
414
1
Turnovers
0
Dec 7/14 (2 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
14
Score
23
+4
ATS
-4
53.5 o
O/U
53.5 u
53
Rush Yds
87
33
Pass Attempts
44
60.61
Completion %
63.64
163
Passing Yds
310
216
Total Yds
397
1
Turnovers
2
Sep 18/11 (3 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
21
Score
35
+6.5
ATS
-6.5
53.5 o
O/U
53.5 u
98
Rush Yds
94
40
Pass Attempts
40
72.50
Completion %
77.50
372
Passing Yds
410
470
Total Yds
504
4
Turnovers
0
Oct 24/10 (4 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
20
Score
23
-1.5
ATS
+1.5
49.5 o
O/U
49.5 u
38
Rush Yds
51
50
Pass Attempts
32
68.00
Completion %
59.38
325
Passing Yds
128
363
Total Yds
179
4
Turnovers
0
Oct 12/08 (5 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
30
Score
10
-6
ATS
+6
45 o
O/U
45 u
98
Rush Yds
106
27
Pass Attempts
38
66.67
Completion %
57.89
306
Passing Yds
193
404
Total Yds
299
1
Turnovers
1
Jan 20/08 (6 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
12
Score
21
+14
ATS
-14
46.5 o
O/U
46.5 u
104
Rush Yds
149
37
Pass Attempts
33
51.35
Completion %
66.67
207
Passing Yds
198
311
Total Yds
347
2
Turnovers
3
Sep 16/07 (7 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
14
Score
38
+3.5
ATS
-3.5
46 o
O/U
46 u
52
Rush Yds
144
30
Pass Attempts
31
63.33
Completion %
80.65
149
Passing Yds
263
201
Total Yds
407
3
Turnovers
2
Jan 14/07 (8 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
21
Score
24
-4.5
ATS
+4.5
46 o
O/U
46 u
148
Rush Yds
51
32
Pass Attempts
51
43.75
Completion %
52.94
204
Passing Yds
276
352
Total Yds
327
4
Turnovers
3
Oct 2/05 (9 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
41
Score
17
+3.5
ATS
-3.5
48 o
O/U
48 u
183
Rush Yds
72
24
Pass Attempts
36
79.17
Completion %
58.33
248
Passing Yds
231
431
Total Yds
303
0
Turnovers
2
Sep 29/02 (10 of 10)
LAC
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
21
Score
14
+3
ATS
-3
40.5 o
O/U
40.5 u
238
Rush Yds
87
18
Pass Attempts
53
55.56
Completion %
67.92
104
Passing Yds
353
342
Total Yds
440
1
Turnovers
3

Team Records

LAC
Record NE
13-4
All
11-5
5-3
Home
8-0
8-1
Away
3-5
10-7
ATS
9-7
2-6
ATS Home
6-2
8-1
ATS Away
3-5
8-9
O/U
5-11
3-5
O/U Home
2-6
5-4
O/U Away
3-5
LAC
Record NE
10-3
All
8-4
3-3
Home
6-0
7-0
Away
2-4
8-5
ATS
6-6
1-5
ATS Home
4-2
7-0
ATS Away
2-4
5-8
O/U
4-8
1-5
O/U Home
2-4
4-3
O/U Away
2-4
LAC
Record NE
4-2
All
5-1
1-2
Home
3-0
3-0
Away
2-1
4-2
ATS
4-2
1-2
ATS Home
2-1
3-0
ATS Away
2-1
0-0
O/U
0-0
0-0
O/U Home
0-0
0-0
O/U Away
0-0
LAC
Record NE
8-2
All
7-3
2-2
Home
4-0
6-0
Away
3-3
7-3
ATS
6-4
1-3
ATS Home
3-1
6-0
ATS Away
3-3
3-7
O/U
2-8
1-3
O/U Home
0-4
2-4
O/U Away
2-4

Gametime Weather

Weather
1:00 pm EST Partly Cloudy
-3ºC / 26ºF
36% Humidity
0% Precipitation
30% Cloud Cover
Wind Impact Stadium Type Open
Field Image
Arrow Image 6
mph

Injuries

Name Position Inj Desc
Nick VannettTEIs "?" Sunday vs Denver, Concussion
Joey BosaDEIR, Foot
Mike WilliamsWRIR; is out for season, Knee
Zack BaileyGIs "?" Sunday vs Denver, Back
Josh PalmerWRIR (11/5), Knee
Chris Rumph IILBIR, Foot
Ja'Sir TaylorCBIs "?" Sunday vs Denver, Illness
Name Position Inj Desc
Matt JudonLBIR, Biceps
Deatrich Wise Jr.DEIs "?" Thursday vs Pittsburgh, Shoulder
Kendrick BourneWRIR, Knee
Daniel EkualeDTIR, Elbow
Calvin AndersonTIR, Illness
Rhamondre StevensonRBLeft last game, is "?" Thursday vs Pittsburgh, Ankle
Shaun WadeCBIs "?" Thursday vs Pittsburgh, Illness
Marcus JonesCBIR, Shoulder
Bailey ZappeQBHas been named the starter Thursday vs Pittsburgh, None
Christian GonzalezCBIs out for season, Shoulder
Kayshon BoutteWRIs "?" Thursday vs Pittsburgh, Shoulder
Demario DouglasWRIs "?" Thursday vs Pittsburgh, Concussion

Last 10 Games

Date Opp Score SU Line/Total ATS OFF. RUSH OFF. PASS OFF. TOTAL DEF. RUSH DEF. PASS DEF. TOTAL TO
Jan 6, 2019BAL23-17W+3/43W/U8915424390139229-2
Dec 30, 2018DEN23-9W-7/43.5W/U116160276822883700
Dec 22, 2018BAL10-22L-4/42.5L/U511471981592023612
Dec 13, 2018KC29-28W+3.5/54.5W/O119288407602342942
Dec 9, 2018CIN26-21W-16.5/48.5L/U852032881441512950
Dec 2, 2018PIT33-30W+3/53.5W/O8528637165271336-1
Nov 25, 2018ARI45-10W-14/43W/O17823641462871490
Nov 18, 2018DEN22-23L-7/47L/U953844791082173252
Nov 11, 2018OAK20-6W-10/50.5W/U1132223351142033170
Nov 4, 2018SEA25-17W+1/48.5W/U160215375154202356-1
View Game Logs
Date Opp Score SU Line/Total ATS OFF. RUSH OFF. PASS OFF. TOTAL DEF. RUSH DEF. PASS DEF. TOTAL TO
Dec 30, 2018NYJ38-3W-14/46.5W/U131244375104135239-3
Dec 23, 2018BUF24-12W-13.5/45L/U273117390722172890
Dec 16, 2018PIT10-17L-2.5/55.5L/U96272368158218376-1
Dec 9, 2018MIA33-34L-9/49.5L/O773444211892234120
Dec 2, 2018MIN24-10W-6/50W/U16031147195183278-1
Nov 25, 2018NYJ27-13W-13/47W/U21528349874264338-1
Nov 11, 2018TEN10-34L-6.5/46.5L/U402442841502353850
Nov 4, 2018GB31-17W-5/56.5W/U123310433118250368-1
Oct 29, 2018BUF25-6W-13.5/44W/U7631138746287333-2
Oct 21, 2018CHI38-31W-2/49W/O1082733811343194531
View Game Logs
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