NFL

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Miami
Dolphins
3 - 0
New England
Patriots
1 - 2
September 30, 2018, 1:00 PM EDT
 | Gillette Stadium

Game Preview

Miami
Dolphins
3 - 0
New England
Patriots
1 - 2
September 30, 2018, 1:00 PM EDT
 | Gillette Stadium
  • In a role reversal, the undefeated AFC East-leading Miami Dolphins head to Gillette Stadium in Week 4 to face a New England Patriots squad coming off ugly back-to-back losses. The Dolphins have started the season 3-0 SU for the first time since 2013 and will look to break a dreadful streak of nine straight losses in Foxborough. Oddsmakers must feel New England will bounce back vs the Fins as the Patriots opened as 9.5-point faves with the spread since dropping to -7 after the Pats’ loss to the Lions.

    SHARK BITES
    • The Patriots are 8-0 SU in their last eight games at home (avg. winning margin: 14.38).
    • The Dolphins are 0-9 SU in their last nine games on the road vs the Patriots.
    • The total has gone OVER in 3 of the last 4 games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 50.75).

    Dolphins vs Patriots Game Center

    What’s Wrong with the Patriots?

    That’s the question on every talking-head show this week and the answer is simple: their defense is awful. New England is allowing 25.7 points per game this season compared to 18.4 last year and opposing rushers are gaining 143 yards per game on the ground, which ranks second-last in the NFL. As a result, the Patriots have lost back-to-back games against the Jaguars and Lions and now are in danger of losing three straight for the first time since 2002.

    The defensive shortcomings were the rap on the Patriots last season and they still made the Super Bowl. The real issue through three games is their offense has stunk out the joint. They’ve been limited to 19 points per game and they’re not sustaining drives like in years past as they rank 29th in third-down conversion (28.6 percent) and 24th in first downs (53 total).

    The lack of weaponry hasn’t usually been a hindrance for the Patriots offense as Bill Belichick has found ways to make up for those limitations but the likes of Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett are not striking fear in opposing secondaries. Couple that with no rushing touchdowns for New England and that’s a recipe for a losing season.

    Before we proclaim the sky is falling in Massachusetts, it’s worth noting that we’ve seen this movie before. The Patriots are prone to early-season losses that make every football analyst and bettor think this is the year they finally fall off a cliff. I’m not ready to write them off as they’ve gone 8-0 SU in their last eight games at Gillette Stadium with an average win margin of 14.3 points. If the Pats lose this week, then we can start to pour dirt on them.

    Dolphins Benefiting from Easy Early Schedule

    Coming into a Week 4 matchup with the Patriots, if you had predicted the Miami Dolphins would be undefeated, we probably wouldn’t be friends as I try to keep delusional people out of my life. That being said, maybe I’m the delusional one as Miami is one of two teams in the NFL with an undefeated record and one of four that are 3-0 against the spread.

    The Dolphins defense has been excellent thus far with an NFL-leading seven interceptions while holding teams to 17.3 points per game. Schedule-makers may have blessed them with an easy slate in the first three weeks but the Fins do not make the schedule and it’s not like the Titans and Raiders are walkovers. This tilt should be a true-colors test to reveal whether this early spark by the Dolphins is more than just a flash in the pan.

    The reason for me not anointing Miami as a rising team in the AFC yet is how the Dolphins have played when going to Gillette Stadium, which is a graveyard for AFC East teams. They have lost nine straight games in Foxborough by an average of 18.4 points per game and are 2-15 SU in the last 17 years. Another trend that makes me nervous is how the Fins do on the road as an underdog of 7 points or more, as Miami is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in that spot.

    Should You Take the OVER?

    The total opened at 47.5 and I think the OVER is the profitable angle in this divisional matchup. The OVER has hit in three of the last four games in this matchup with an average combined score of 50.7 points per game while the OVER has also hit in three of the last four games when played at Gillette Stadium (average combined score: 51 points). I don’t expect this game to be a blowout but I expect Miami to put up some points as head coach Adam Gase will devise a scheme to exploit the Pats’ shoddy defense.

    My Pick is…

    To take the OVER. Both of these teams are in the “wait-and-see” category for me at this stage of the season. I’d rather rely on a good ol’ fashioned shootout than counting on either team to win me money via the spread.

Odds

Sunday, September 30 Sun Sep 30


Opening
Current

Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Opening
+9.5
-110
+274
o48
-107
-9.5
-110
-316
u48
-107
Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Current
--
- -
--
--
- -
--

Edge Finder

23.78
Total Score
21.41
261.11
Passing Yards
207.94
96.00
Rushing Yards
106.65
29:14
Time on Field
29:10
59.89
Number of Plays
59.18
5.96
Yards Per Play
5.32
23.78
Total Score
21.41
4.28
First Quarter
2.71
9.33
Second Quarter
6.24
5.22
Third Quarter
6.82
4.94
Fourth Quarter
5.65
261.11
Passing Yards
207.94
34.94
Pass Attempts
31.76
21.44
Pass Completions
21.06
2.17
Sacks
2.41
15.83
Sack Yards
16.41
12.18
Yards Per Pass
9.87
96.00
Rushing Yards
106.65
22.78
Rush Attempts
25.00
4.21
Yards Per Rush
4.27
0.94
Interceptions
0.82
0.89
Fumbles
1.35
0.33
Fumbles Lost
0.53
1.28
Total Turnovers
1.35
6.56
Penalties
6.12
50.83
Penalty Yards
49.47
29:14
Time on Field
29:10
59.89
Number of Plays
59.18
5.96
Yards Per Play
5.32
3.72
Punts
4.71
46.14
Punt Average
41.74
51.61
Return Yards
97.53

Head To Head

MIA
Stat Type NE
4-6
Record
6-4
4-6
ATS
6-4
5-5
O/U
5-5
19.60
Score
27.50
95.50
Rush Yds
111.20
39.10
Pass Attempts
37.20
64.19
Completion %
61.02
249.80
Passing Yds
246.20
345.3
Total Yds
357.4
2.00
Turnovers
1.00
MIA
Stat Type NE
1-2
Record
2-1
1-2
ATS
2-1
2-1
O/U
2-1
19.33
Score
30.00
87.33
Rush Yds
113.67
35.33
Pass Attempts
35.00
67.92
Completion %
63.81
200.33
Passing Yds
240.00
287.67
Total Yds
353.67
1.67
Turnovers
1.33
Dec 11/17 (1 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
27
Score
20
+10.5
ATS
-10.5
48 o
O/U
48 u
120
Rush Yds
25
38
Pass Attempts
43
65.79
Completion %
55.81
242
Passing Yds
223
362
Total Yds
248
0
Turnovers
2
Nov 26/17 (2 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
17
Score
35
+17
ATS
-17
49 o
O/U
49 u
67
Rush Yds
196
34
Pass Attempts
28
67.65
Completion %
64.29
154
Passing Yds
221
221
Total Yds
417
3
Turnovers
2
Jan 1/17 (3 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
14
Score
35
+7.5
ATS
-7.5
47 o
O/U
47 u
75
Rush Yds
120
34
Pass Attempts
34
70.59
Completion %
73.53
205
Passing Yds
276
280
Total Yds
396
2
Turnovers
0
Sep 18/16 (4 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
24
Score
31
+6
ATS
-6
42 o
O/U
42 u
70
Rush Yds
161
45
Pass Attempts
36
71.11
Completion %
66.67
389
Passing Yds
304
459
Total Yds
465
4
Turnovers
1
Jan 3/16 (5 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
20
Score
10
+10
ATS
-10
46.5 o
O/U
46.5 u
96
Rush Yds
70
38
Pass Attempts
25
65.79
Completion %
52.00
342
Passing Yds
126
438
Total Yds
196
0
Turnovers
0
Oct 29/15 (6 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
7
Score
36
+8
ATS
-8
51 o
O/U
51 u
15
Rush Yds
95
44
Pass Attempts
38
63.64
Completion %
68.42
255
Passing Yds
342
270
Total Yds
437
2
Turnovers
0
Dec 14/14 (7 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
13
Score
41
+9
ATS
-9
49 o
O/U
49 u
76
Rush Yds
108
47
Pass Attempts
35
61.70
Completion %
60.00
308
Passing Yds
287
384
Total Yds
395
2
Turnovers
1
Sep 7/14 (8 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
33
Score
20
+3.5
ATS
-3.5
47.5 o
O/U
47.5 u
191
Rush Yds
89
32
Pass Attempts
56
56.25
Completion %
51.79
169
Passing Yds
226
360
Total Yds
315
3
Turnovers
2
Dec 15/13 (9 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
24
Score
20
-2.5
ATS
+2.5
47 o
O/U
47 u
89
Rush Yds
96
37
Pass Attempts
55
67.57
Completion %
61.82
289
Passing Yds
357
378
Total Yds
453
1
Turnovers
1
Oct 27/13 (10 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
17
Score
27
+6.5
ATS
-6.5
46.5 o
O/U
46.5 u
156
Rush Yds
152
42
Pass Attempts
22
52.38
Completion %
59.09
145
Passing Yds
100
301
Total Yds
252
3
Turnovers
1

Team Records

MIA
Record NE
3-0
All
1-2
2-0
Home
1-0
1-0
Away
0-2
3-0
ATS
1-2
2-0
ATS Home
1-0
1-0
ATS Away
0-2
2-1
O/U
1-2
2-0
O/U Home
0-1
0-1
O/U Away
1-1
MIA
Record NE
3-0
All
1-1
2-0
Home
1-0
1-0
Away
0-1
3-0
ATS
1-1
2-0
ATS Home
1-0
1-0
ATS Away
0-1
2-1
O/U
1-1
2-0
O/U Home
0-1
0-1
O/U Away
1-0
MIA
Record NE
1-0
All
0-0
0-0
Home
0-0
1-0
Away
0-0
1-0
ATS
0-0
0-0
ATS Home
0-0
1-0
ATS Away
0-0
0-0
O/U
0-0
0-0
O/U Home
0-0
0-0
O/U Away
0-0
MIA
Record NE
3-0
All
1-2
2-0
Home
1-0
1-0
Away
0-2
3-0
ATS
1-2
2-0
ATS Home
1-0
1-0
ATS Away
0-2
2-1
O/U
1-2
2-0
O/U Home
0-1
0-1
O/U Away
1-1

Gametime Weather

Weather
12:00pm Clear
17ºC / 63ºF
55% Humidity
0% Precipitation
15% Cloud Cover
Wind Impact Stadium Type Open
Field Image
Arrow Image 4
mph

Injuries

Name Position Inj Desc
Name Position Inj Desc

Last 10 Games

Date Opp Score SU Line/Total ATS OFF. RUSH OFF. PASS OFF. TOTAL DEF. RUSH DEF. PASS DEF. TOTAL TO
Sep 23, 2018OAK28-20W-3/46W/O41332373109325434-2
Sep 16, 2018NYJ20-12W+3/42.5W/U13512225742320362-1
Sep 9, 2018TEN27-20WEvW/O120222342116220336-1
Dec 31, 2017BUF16-22L+2/41L/U932633561261863121
Dec 24, 2017KC13-29L+11/43.5L/U592863451033014042
Dec 17, 2017BUF16-24L+3.5/39.5L/O1002493491162123283
Dec 11, 2017NE27-20W+10.5/48W/U12024236225223248-2
Dec 3, 2017DEN35-9W+1/41W/O1452223671031672700
Nov 26, 2017NE17-35L+17/49L/O671542211962214171
Nov 19, 2017TB20-30L+1/44L/O83365448532683215
View Game Logs
Date Opp Score SU Line/Total ATS OFF. RUSH OFF. PASS OFF. TOTAL DEF. RUSH DEF. PASS DEF. TOTAL TO
Sep 23, 2018DET10-26L-7/55L/U891202091592554140
Sep 16, 2018JAC20-31L-2/44.5L/O82220302104377481-1
Sep 9, 2018HOU27-20W-6.5/49.5W/U1222673891671583251
Feb 4, 2018PHI33-41L-4.5/49L/O1135006131643745380
Jan 21, 2018JAC24-20W-8/45.5L/U462983441012733741
Jan 13, 2018TEN35-14W-13.5/48W/O101337438652022670
Dec 31, 2017NYJ26-6W-16.5/42.5W/U147183330402072470
Dec 24, 2017BUF37-16W-10.5/47.5W/O193218411842423261
Dec 17, 2017PIT27-24W-2.5/52.5W/U772833601432704130
Dec 11, 2017MIA20-27L-10.5/48L/U252232481202423622
View Game Logs