Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

In a role reversal, the undefeated AFC East-leading Miami Dolphins head to Gillette Stadium in Week 4 to face a New England Patriots squad coming off ugly back-to-back losses. The Dolphins have started the season 3-0 SU for the first time since 2013 and will look to break a dreadful streak of nine straight losses in Foxborough. Oddsmakers must feel New England will bounce back vs the Fins as the Patriots opened as 9.5-point faves with the spread since dropping to -7 after the Pats’ loss to the Lions.

Dolphins vs Patriots Game Center

What’s Wrong with the Patriots?

That’s the question on every talking-head show this week and the answer is simple: their defense is awful. New England is allowing 25.7 points per game this season compared to 18.4 last year and opposing rushers are gaining 143 yards per game on the ground, which ranks second-last in the NFL. As a result, the Patriots have lost back-to-back games against the Jaguars and Lions and now are in danger of losing three straight for the first time since 2002.

The defensive shortcomings were the rap on the Patriots last season and they still made the Super Bowl. The real issue through three games is their offense has stunk out the joint. They’ve been limited to 19 points per game and they’re not sustaining drives like in years past as they rank 29th in third-down conversion (28.6 percent) and 24th in first downs (53 total).

The lack of weaponry hasn’t usually been a hindrance for the Patriots offense as Bill Belichick has found ways to make up for those limitations but the likes of Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett are not striking fear in opposing secondaries. Couple that with no rushing touchdowns for New England and that’s a recipe for a losing season.

Before we proclaim the sky is falling in Massachusetts, it’s worth noting that we’ve seen this movie before. The Patriots are prone to early-season losses that make every football analyst and bettor think this is the year they finally fall off a cliff. I’m not ready to write them off as they’ve gone 8-0 SU in their last eight games at Gillette Stadium with an average win margin of 14.3 points. If the Pats lose this week, then we can start to pour dirt on them.

Dolphins Benefiting from Easy Early Schedule

Coming into a Week 4 matchup with the Patriots, if you had predicted the Miami Dolphins would be undefeated, we probably wouldn’t be friends as I try to keep delusional people out of my life. That being said, maybe I’m the delusional one as Miami is one of two teams in the NFL with an undefeated record and one of four that are 3-0 against the spread.

The Dolphins defense has been excellent thus far with an NFL-leading seven interceptions while holding teams to 17.3 points per game. Schedule-makers may have blessed them with an easy slate in the first three weeks but the Fins do not make the schedule and it’s not like the Titans and Raiders are walkovers. This tilt should be a true-colors test to reveal whether this early spark by the Dolphins is more than just a flash in the pan.

The reason for me not anointing Miami as a rising team in the AFC yet is how the Dolphins have played when going to Gillette Stadium, which is a graveyard for AFC East teams. They have lost nine straight games in Foxborough by an average of 18.4 points per game and are 2-15 SU in the last 17 years. Another trend that makes me nervous is how the Fins do on the road as an underdog of 7 points or more, as Miami is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in that spot.

Should You Take the OVER?

The total opened at 47.5 and I think the OVER is the profitable angle in this divisional matchup. The OVER has hit in three of the last four games in this matchup with an average combined score of 50.7 points per game while the OVER has also hit in three of the last four games when played at Gillette Stadium (average combined score: 51 points). I don’t expect this game to be a blowout but I expect Miami to put up some points as head coach Adam Gase will devise a scheme to exploit the Pats’ shoddy defense.

My Pick is…

To take the OVER. Both of these teams are in the “wait-and-see” category for me at this stage of the season. I’d rather rely on a good ol’ fashioned shootout than counting on either team to win me money via the spread.