Many had the Bears penciled in as a sleeper candidate entering the season and through the halfway point of the season, they’ve met those expectations. They come into Sunday with a slim half-game lead in the NFC North and will look to distance themselves from the team breathing down their necks, the defending champion Minnesota Vikings. It just so has it they’ve had the Vikings’ number when the two play in Chicago, as they’ve won an impressive 14 of the last 17 matchups between the teams in the Windy City.
The Bears opened the week at -3 and the total is set at 46.
Shark Bites
The Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on the road vs the Bears.
The total has gone OVER in five of the Bears’ last six games. Those games had an average combined score of 54.33.
The Bears lead the league in net yards per play at home.
This is the first time in four years that the Bears have been a favorite over the Vikings. The last time occurred in Chicago on November 16, 2004. The Bears won 21-13, covering -2.5 points. This time around, the Bears are showing promise of a future Super Bowl contender with the possibility of owning the NFC North for years to come. They’ve won three straight games, all by double digits, outscoring their opponents 99-41. This will mark their eighth game as a favorite this season after getting that distinction just three times last season.
The Vikings are playing some good football too, winning four of their last five games before going on their bye in Week 10. Three of the wins were by double digits, as was their most recent victory over the Bears on December 31 of last season — a 23-10 win at home. Specific to their underdog status in this one, it’ll be their seventh time since the beginning of last season as an underdog. They went 3-3 SU and 3-2-1 ATS the six previous times.
Looking at home/away splits, the Bears have been a much better team on their home field as they lead the NFL in net yards per play at home, which has paved the way to a 4-1 ATS record at Soldier Field. They’re scoring in bunches at home, averaging 34.25 points over their last four home games. Mitch Trubisky is also posting much better numbers in Chicago, where his QB rating is 24 points higher than it is on the road.
As for the Vikings, they’re 2-1-1 SU and ATS on the road this season, but they’re allowing 6.4 additional points outside of Minnesota. Oddly enough, however, they’re scoring 9.8 more points on the road and Kirk Cousins has posted some elite numbers, throwing 10 touchdowns to just one interception with a 111.8 QB rating.
What’s a Totals Bettor to do?
If recent Bears results are any indication, then the OVER looks like a smart bet. The total has gone OVER in five of their last six games with those games having an average combined score of 54.33. The Vikings, meanwhile, have been involved in some very high-scoring games on the road this season with their four road games having an average combined score of 56.25. Furthermore, combining the Bears’ home O/U record with the Vikings’ road O/U record equates to a mark of 6-3 O/U.
There are two things holding me back from going all-in on an OVER, though. First is the Bears defense. They’re allowing the fourth-fewest points in the league (19.4) and are allowing just 13.7 points over their last three games. As for the Vikings, they’ve been elite in the red zone, holding opponents to a 39.39 touchdown scoring percentage that is the second-best in the league. Bettors will also be interested to know that the UNDER has been a big money bet in recent Sunday nighters, as it’s hit in seven of the last nine.
I’ll be staying away from a totals bet, but if you have a gun to my head, threatening to murder me if I don’t make a pick, I’d go with the recent scoring trends and take the OVER.
My best bet for Vikings vs Bears
I’ve saved my best stat for last … the Bears have the top first-half point differential in the league at +9.78, whereas the Vikings are at -1.22. As a result of this and their elite-level play at home, I’ve got the Bears on the first-half spread at -1.5.
Other Betting Nuggets for Vikings at Bears:
The Bears are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games vs divisional opponents.
The Bears are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games at home vs teams with winning records.
The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings’ last 10 games at night.
The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Vikings’ last nine games vs the Bears (avg. combined score: 38.33).
The Vikings are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games after a bye.
The Vikings are 6-0-1 SU in their last seven games vs divisional opponents (avg. winning margin: 9.57).
The Vikings are 6-1 SU in their last seven games vs the Bears.
Mitch Trubisky has a 65.3 QB rating in two career games vs the Vikings.
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