Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (GB -6.5, O/U 45.5)
Sean McVay and the Rams head to Lambeau Field in hopes of unseating the NFC’s top seed and reaching the NFC Championship game for the second time in three seasons. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will greet the Rams following their well-deserved bye week in pursuit of their second consecutive NFC title game appearance and their fourth trip under Rodgers.
It’s setting up to be a clash of strengths at Lambeau on Saturday. Los Angeles enters boasting the NFL’s best defense, while Green Bay possesses one of the league’s best offenses led by the presumptive MVP in Aaron Rodgers. Matt LaFleur has shown he can win in the regular season, but Vince Lombardi Trophies are all that matter to Cheeseheads.
Sportsbooks are giving the edge to the NFC’s top seed in this one, listing the Packers as current 6.5-point favorites over the visiting Rams. Our model thinks that line is a bit too high after simulating this matchup thousands of times, projecting a final score of 21.7-20.3 in favor of Green Bay. With a 1.4-point projected margin of victory and a spread near a touchdown, our model suggests a $108 wager on LOS ANGELES +6.5 for an $100 average bettor.
Prediction Machine’s NFL model is 219-171 ATS (56.1%) and 220-193 (53.3%) on O/Us for +37.13 units, or $3,713 of profit since the start of the 2019 season. Head over to predictionmachine.com/pricing and sign up to receive every NFL prediction.
Why Will the Rams Cover the Spread?
- First-year defensive coordinator Brandon Staley enters Lambeau Field calling the shots for the NFL’s best defense. The Rams allowed a league-low 4.6 yards per play and 18.6 points per game in the regular season and limited Seattle to 4.9 yards per play in their NFC Wild Card matchup. Slowing down Aaron Rodgers will obviously be important to keeping this game close, as the Packers enter averaging a third best 6.3 yards per play and league-high 31.8 points per game.
- Green Bay’s defense excels defending the pass compared to the run, ranking 12th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.6) and 21st in yards allowed per carry (4.5). Sean McVay prefers to dial up the run on offense, ranking eighth in the NFL in rushing play percentage.
- Los Angeles should be able to generate pressure against a Green Bay offensive line which just lost their stalwart offensive tackle, David Bakhtiari, to a torn ACL prior to Week 17. The Rams led the NFL with a 9.2 percent sack rate and finished second with 53 total sacks on the season.
- Staley’s defensive scheme has all but eliminated explosive plays for opposing offenses. LA allowed the fewest passing plays of 20+ yards (36) and 40+ yards (4) during the regular season, while Rodgers and the Packers excelled in both categories. Green Bay produced the most passing plays of 40+ yards (14) and were ninth in 20+ yard plays (57).
How to Bet the Total in Rams-Packers
Prediction Machine’s NFL model projects a final score of 21.7-20.3 in favor of the Packers. With 42 projected points and a current total of 45.5, we have a solid edge on the under in this one. Our model suggests a $115 wager on UNDER 45.5 for an $100 average bettor.
Need-to-Know Stats for Rams-Packers
- 205.9 passing yards - Our model is projecting Aaron Rodgers to throw for just over 200 yards on Saturday, which would fall well short of the 268.7 yards per game he tossed during the regular season. We’re projecting a down game overall for the Packers’ signal caller, with his full line coming to 21-of-31 for 205.9 yards, 1.21 TDs, and 0.32 INTs. The Rams’ defense should be able to slow him down, entering this game with a league-best 5.6 yards allowed per pass attempt.
- 19 carries, 82.4 yards, 0.80 TDs, 1 reception, 10.9 yards - Cam Akers figures to be the lead back for the Rams once again after posting 176 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card round. We’re projecting Akers to receive just shy of 20 carries in this one alongside one reception but to fall short of that 100-scrimmage yard barrier. If Akers sees the 28 carries he saw in the Wild Card round, he’ll almost certainly clear that 100-yard threshold, but we’re projecting the Rams to fall well shy of the 71 plays they ran a week ago. Akers is still likely to be the focal point of the offense with 20 total touches projected.
