Oakland Raiders vs Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins find themselves 2-0, alone at the top of the AFC East and favorites in a game for the first time in 14 contests. This game opened at Miami -3.0, with a very winnable game against the Oakland Raiders, a team the Dolphins have had a lot of recent success against. A low-scoring affair is expected, as the total comes in at 43.5.

Raiders vs Dolphins Game Center

MY PICK FOR SUNDAY: DOLPHINS -3.0

Ryan Tannehill’s return certainly has been a boost to the Dolphins, but they’ve also benefited from an improved ability to run the ball effectively.

The Dolphins finished last year with the fourth-fewest team rushing yards (1,388) and were among the worst in the NFL with 3.9 yards per carry. Through two games this season, they’re averaging 4.3 yards per carry, good for 12th in the NFL, and are sixth in the league in total rushing.  

Third-year back Kenyan Drake, who was among the league’s rushing leaders following his insertion as the starter in Week 13 last year, and veteran Frank Gore, who was signed in the offseason and is fourth on the NFL’s all-time rushing list, have proved to be a reliable combo that can chew up yards.

That spells bad news for the Raiders, who have surrendered the second-most rushing yards in the NFL this season, and the highest yards per carry (5.7). A successful day on the ground means they’ve got the ball control advantage, which drastically increases the Dolphins’ chances at covering the 3-point spread.

THIS MATCHUP CAN GET QUITE OFFENSIVE

If you’re betting the point total for this game, there’s a couple of key factors to consider.

First, in the last 10 head-to-head matchups, the OVER has hit seven times, with an average combined score of 49.8 points in the last five contests.

Second, the Dolphins appear to be a better offense with Ryan Tannehill back under center. He missed all of 2017 with a torn ACL, but has had a strong start to the 2018 campaign. His completion percentage is higher than it’s ever been, as is his yards per attempt. His play has opened up the running game for Kenyan Drake and veteran Frank Gore, plus he’s got a quartet of receivers he’s utilizing, including Kenny Stills and Danny Amendola. We wouldn’t call them an elite offense, but they can put up some points and also possess some quick-strike ability.

Third, the Raiders have hit the UNDER in nine straight games, but the offense showed signs of life last week. Quarterback Derek Carr completed 29 of 32 passes on the road against the Broncos, his second straight game completing at least 70 percent of his passes, compared to reaching that mark just once in the previous seven games. However, they only managed one touchdown in the second half, and have now gone six straight games without scoring 20 points.

The Raiders have shown flashes of figuring it out offensively, and even an average performance, combined with Miami’s strong play, makes the OVER on a low total of 43.5 an intriguing play.

WHAT HAPPENED TO AMARI COOPER?

The fourth overall pick in 2015, Amari Cooper made the Pro Bowl each of his first two seasons, and looked like one of the league’s most dominant ends for years to come.

But 2017 was a lost season, where he saw his receptions and receiving yards drop by nearly half, and his Week 1 performance in 2018 was a whopping three targets, one catch and nine yards. He rebounded against the Denver Broncos, hauling in all 10 of his targets for 116 yards, but that marked just the third time Cooper has topped 100 receiving yards in his past 16 games, compared to six games with fewer than 10 yards.

While Carr’s struggles have been a big factor in Cooper’s lack of production, elite NFL receivers find ways to get in the box score even when their quarterback isn’t at their best. For Oakland to have any chance at ending its six-game losing streak, Cooper needs to regain that form that made him one of the league’s rising stars.