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NFL Week 11 Opening Odds Report

NFL Week 11 Opening Odds Report November 11, 2019

There are plenty of storylines for the 14 games on tap for Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season and two teams have opened as huge home favorites with the release of opening lines and spreads by sportsbooks.

The Oakland Raiders host the winless Cincinnati Bengals as 10-point favorites and at 5-4 SU could potentially be at the top of the AFC West with another win in Week 11.

The Minnesota Vikings, fresh off a huge road win in Dallas, also opened as double-digit faves at -10.5 vs the Denver Broncos but the line quickly moved down to -10 Monday morning.

Four teams are on bye for Week 11: Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans.

We’re going to take a different approach in Week 11. Below we have each game listed with news and notes about the opening spread and early impressions.

Steelers @ Browns

Opened at Browns -3, Moved to Browns -2.5

Winning four straight games, the Steelers are only an underdog because of the poor play of QB Mason Rudolph and the likelihood that RB James Conner misses another game. Nearly 70 percent of the bets were on the Steelers on Monday morning. The Browns have yet to cover at home this season.

Texans @ Ravens

Opened at Ravens -5, Moved to Ravens -4.5

The Texans are 4-1 ATS in road games despite being an underdog in all of them. Houston’s defense is nicked up and has to contend with QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, who have only covered once in four home games. Two dynamic offenses have made oddsmakers put this total at 50, with over 90 percent of early bets on the OVER.

Broncos @ Vikings

Opened at Vikings -10.5, Moved to Vikings -10

The Broncos have been an underdog in all but one of their road games this season and now they go into one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL with a rookie quarterback in Brandon Allen. The Vikings have won each of their home games by 10 or more points and just got done running all over the Cowboys. This line should be higher.

Cowboys @ Lions

Opened at Cowboys -3

Not much action or movement for this line after it opened because bettors are awaiting the status of Lions QB Matthew Stafford, who had to miss the last game with fractures in his back. The Lions showed how poor their offense was with backup Jeff Driskel. If Stafford plays, look for the line to move back in Detroit’s favor.

Falcons @ Panthers

Opened at Panthers -7, Moved to Panthers -6.5

This line feels like an underreaction to the Panthers’ loss and the Falcons’ win from Week 10. Carolina shouldn’t be getting nearly a touchdown at home vs a divisional rival that just dominated the Saints. Last year in this matchup in Carolina, the Panthers were destroyed by Atlanta and held to 10 points. Early bets (65 percent for the Panthers) suggest that the Falcons’ success will be short-lived.

Jaguars @ Colts

Opened at Colts -3

This line is off the board at most online sportsbooks with oddsmakers awaiting news on whether Colts QB Jacoby Brissett will make his return from injury. The Colts desperately need him back after losing to the Dolphins with backup Brian Hoyer and with the expected return of Jaguars quarterback Nick Foles.

Bills vs Dolphins

Opened at Bills -7.5, Moved to Bills -6

Never would bettors have envisioned the Dolphins attempting to win their third game in a row but here we are. Miami has looked feisty in its last four games and put up 21 in a loss to Buffalo in Week 7. The Bills have failed to top 20 points in three of four road games but are still getting 58 percent of the early bets to cover the spread.

Jets @ Redskins

Opened at Redskins -1.5, Moved to Redskins -1

Something will have to give when an 0-4 SU home team faces an 0-4 SU away team and early bettors suggest it will be the Jets who win and cover with nearly 67 percent of wagers. The Redskins’ only win this season was at home to the Dolphins and neither team has separated itself as one that bettors can rely on.

Saints @ Buccaneers

Opened at Saints -4.5, Moved to Saints -5

After failing to cover the spread again at home, the Buccaneers sit at 0-4 ATS in Tampa this season. They already got beat by a touchdown when they faced the Saints with Teddy Bridgewater and nearly coughed it up in Week 10 vs the Cardinals. The total opened at 51.5 and since Week 2, every Bucs game has surpassed 51 points (7 games, average combined score: 62.4).

Cardinals @ 49ers

Opened at 49ers -13.5

This line will likely move following the conclusion of the Seahawks-49ers game on Monday Night Football and if their last matchup is any indication, the line is too high. The Niners barely escaped with a three-point win in Week 10 vs the Cards and could be missing their kicker and tight end George Kittle. Including their loss to San Francisco, the Cardinals have lost their last two games by a combined six points.

Bengals @ Raiders

Opened at Raiders -10

The Raiders are huge 10-point home faves and haven’t been in this position since December 3, 2017, vs the Jets. Oakland has been one of the sneaky best home teams this season at 3-1 SU and ATS (and 4-1 if you include the London game vs the Bears). The Bengals are actually 3-2 ATS in road games this season but are starting a rookie QB in Ryan Finley, who looked lost in a home loss to the Ravens.

Patriots @ Eagles

Opened at Patriots -3, Moved to Patriots -3.5

This is where the Patriots enter the gauntlet of the 2019 schedule and face an Eagles team that is gunning for its third win in a row.  It’s not uncommon for the Patriots to drop back-to-back road games. Last season, that happened twice and in all four games, they were favored by a field goal or more. It’s worth noting the Patriots are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last four seasons when coming off a bye.

Bears @ Rams

Opened at Rams -7.5, Moved To Rams -7

In what should be considered as a “loser leaves town” matchup, the Rams are struggling and this line feels too high. Rams QB Jared Goff is regressing, Todd Gurley can’t run anymore and Brandin Cooks is likely out with a concussion. The Rams couldn’t score more than 12 points vs the Steelers defense in Week 10 and have dropped two of their last three at home. If the total stays at 40.5, it will be the lowest closing total for a Rams home game in the Sean McVay era.

Chiefs @ Chargers

Opened at Chiefs -4.5, Moved to Chiefs -4

Losing offensive linemen by the week, the Chiefs are getting battered with injuries. Both teams lost in Week 10 as road favorites and early betting action is on the Chiefs’ spread and the OVER. When these two teams faced each other twice last year, both games went way OVER 53 points. The Chargers don’t have much of a home-field advantage and are 1-3-1 ATS in five “home” games this season.

Be sure to check back each week with Odds Shark’s Opening Odds Report and go to our NFL section for full football coverage.