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2021 NFL Coach Of The Year Odds: Predictions And Best Bets

Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley leads NFL Coach of the Year odds for the 2021 season.

When it comes to the four main North American professional sports leagues, no coach has as much impact on the game as the head coach does in the NFL. That’s why winning the NFL Coach of the Year Award as the league’s best coach is a significant honor.

Sizing up NFL Coach of the Year odds on which bench boss will garner the hardware in the 2021 season, the top of the list is filled with new names and some familiar faces.

Oddsmakers at Bovada list new Chargers head coach Brandon Staley as the current favorite to win the award at +1100, followed by Sean McVay (+1200), Kyle Shanahan (+1400), Matt Rhule (+1600), Sean McDermott (+1600) and Sean Payton (+1600) to round out the clear top six. 

Who Are NFL Coach Of The Year Betting Favorites?

2021 NFL Coach of the Year Award Odds
Brandon Staley (LAC)+1100
Sean McVay (LAR) +1200
Kyle Shanahan (SF)+1400
Matt Rhule (CAR)+1600
Sean McDermott (BUF)+1600
Sean Payton (NO)+1600
Bill Belichick (NE) +1800
Kevin Stefanski (CLE)+1800
Vic Fangio (DEN)+1800
Arthur Smith (ATL)+2000
Jon Gruden (LV) +2000
Kliff Kingsbury (ARI) +2000
Nick Sirianni (PHI)+2200
Brian Flores (MIA)+2500
Bruce Arians (TB)+2500
Frank Reich (IND)+2500
Andy Reid (KC)+2800
Pete Carroll (SEA)+2800
John Harbaugh (BAL)+3000
Matt Nagy (CHI)+3000
Mike Vrabel (TEN)+3000
David Culley (HOU)+3500
Ron Rivera (WAS)+3500
Zac Taylor (CIN)+3500
Dan Campbell (DET)+4000
Joe Judge (NYG)+4000
Matt LaFleur (GB)+4000
Mike McCarthy (DAL)+4000
Mike Tomlin (PIT)+4000
Mike Zimmer (MIN)+4000
Robert Saleh (NYJ)+4000
Urban Meyer (JAX)+4000

Odds as of September 22 at Bovada

NFL Coach Of The Year Betting Strategy

Through two weeks of the NFL season, we are starting to get a clearer picture of the league and who the top teams and worst teams are. 

And who those top teams end up being is extremely important when trying to sift through NFL Coach of the Year odds.

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Not since 1990 has the winner of this award coached a team to fewer than 10 wins (Jimmy Johnson’s Cowboys went 7-9). And only twice since 2000 has the winner’s team had fewer than 11 wins.

Three of the last four winners (Stefanski in ’20, Nagy in ’18, McVay in ’17) were in their first season with their team, but we’re looking for coaches of teams that we think will win 11 or more games. 

Using that premise, there could be some immense value here for bettors as only one of the top eight coaches on this list has a team with a projected win total of 10 or more.

The Favorites

Brandon Staley (+1100)

At the top of the list, Staley makes a lot of sense if you think the Chargers could make a leap this season. There is a recent history of new coaches winning the award, and the Chargers are a dark horse and value bet in Super Bowl odds.

The team has started out 1-1 and looks to be ascending on both offense and defense. It will be hard for the Chargers to beat the Chiefs for the division title, however, so betting on Staley might not be a great value at this point.

Sean McVay (+1200)/Kyle Shanahan (+1400)

Generally regarded as two of the better coaches in the league, McVay and Shanahan are solid picks as high-profile coaches of top teams. However, both play in the same tough division and may end up cannibalizing each other in voting and on the schedule.

It’s hard to see one of the Rams or Niners really separating from the other, and the result is likely that neither McVay nor Shanahan wins NFL Coach of the Year.   

NFL Coach Of The Year Value Bets

Considering our criteria of using win totals to find NFL Coach of the Year candidates, it’s hard not to see two coaches in particular who stand out. 

Andy Reid’s Chiefs and Bruce Arians’ Buccaneers are first and second in projected win totals at 12.5 and 12 respectively. 

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While it can often be the case that the coach with the best record doesn’t win the award because another team had an unexpected rise in the standings (Stefanski’s Browns last year), we have seen coaches win the award when their team has an outstanding win total.

If either the Bucs or Chiefs win 14 or more games and stand alone at the top, their coach will be a strong contender for this award. Arians (+2500) and Reid (+2800) have the 14th- and 17th-best odds respectively in NFL Coach of the Year odds right now. That is criminally low.

Best Bet: John Harbaugh (+3000)

You can’t go wrong placing a wager on either Reid or Arians.

And Vic Fangio (+1800) and Kliff Kingsbury (+2000) are good value as well as coaches of teams who look to be taking steps forward from last season (if Arizona wins the NFC West over LA, San Fran and Seattle, Kingsbury could be a shoo-in). 

But John Harbaugh (+3000) stands out as the best bet with the 19th-best odds and a team projected to win 11 games (tied for third-most in football).  

Harbaugh won the award two years ago when the Ravens went 14-2 and oddsmakers may be shying away since he won the award recently, but the Ravens have a real chance to be one of the top teams in the league again.

They started out the season losing a heartbreaker to Las Vegas before upsetting the Chiefs. With all of Baltimore’s injuries to their offensive players helping to build a narrative around the team, Harbaugh would have to be in consideration if this squad ends up with one of the top seeds in the AFC. 

He’s a great value at +3000.