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2021 NFL Coach Of The Year Odds: Belichick Favored Over Kingsbury, LaFleur

New England Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick takes lead in NFL Coach of the Year odds entering week 12 of the 2021 season.

When it comes to the four main North American professional sports leagues, no coach has as much impact on the game as the head coach does in the NFL. That’s why winning the NFL Coach of the Year Award as the league’s best coach is a significant honor.

Sizing up NFL Coach of the Year odds on which bench boss will garner the hardware in the 2021 season, the top of the list is filled with some new names and some familiar faces.

Oddsmakers at Bovada list New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick as the favorite to win the award at +325. Belichick is followed by Kliff Kingsbury (+375), Matt LaFleur (+600), Mike Vrabel (+800) and Zac Taylor (+800) to round out the top five. 

Who Are NFL Coach Of The Year Betting Favorites?

2021 NFL Coach of the Year Award Odds
CoachOdds
Bill Belichick (NE)+325
Kliff Kingsbury (ARI)+375
Matt LaFleur (GB)+600
Mike Vrabel (TEN)+800
Zac Taylor (CIN)+800
Brandon Staley (LAC)+1500
Mike McCarthy (DAL)+1800
Sean McVay (LAR)+2000
Frank Reich (IND)+2500
Sean McDermott (BUF)+2500
Kyle Shanahan (SF)+3500
Bruce Arians (TB)+4000
John Harbaugh (BAL)+4000
Ron Rivera (WSH)+4000
Sean Payton (NO)+4000
Kevin Stefanski (CLE)+5000

Odds as of November 30 at Bovada

NFL Coach Of The Year Betting Strategy

Through 12 weeks of the NFL season, we are starting to get a clearer picture of the league and who the top teams and worst teams are. 

And who those top teams end up being is extremely important when trying to sift through NFL Coach of the Year odds.

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Not since 1990 has the winner of this award coached a team to fewer than 10 wins (Jimmy Johnson’s Cowboys went 7-9). And only twice since 2000 has the winner’s team had fewer than 11 wins.

Three of the last four winners (Stefanski in ’20, Nagy in ’18, McVay in ’17) were in their first season with their team, but we’re looking for coaches of teams that we think will win 11 or more games. 

The Favorites

Bill Belichick (+325)

You can’t go wrong placing a wager on either Matt LaFleur or Mike McCarthy.

Kliff Kingsbury (+375) and Brandon Staley (+1500) are good value as well as coaches of teams that have taken steps forward from last season (if Arizona wins the NFC West over LA, San Fran and Seattle, Kingsbury could be a shoo-in). 

But Bill Belichick (+325) stands out. I had Belichick as my best bet at +1000 just two weeks ago. After another Patriots win, he is now alone atop the oddsboard.

The Patriots are coming off another blowout win against the Titans and are starting to look like one of the best teams in football. They have won six straight games and over that stretch have a point differential of plus-148. The Pats have a legitimate shot to win their division, now sitting half a game above the Bills for first in the AFC East.

The Pats were not expected to make the playoffs this year with rookie QB Mac Jones running the offense. But 12 weeks in, they sit at 8-4 and have the best point differential in the NFL. Belichick has done a phenomenal job with this team and has these guys playing better and better each week.

He’s still solid value at +325.

Kliff Kingsbury (+375)

Going into the season, Kingsbury wasn’t just low on this list, he was actually thought to be on the hot seat if the Cardinals got off to a bad start. After Week 12, they are sitting atop the NFC West with a 9-2 record.

The Cardinals have beaten some solid opponents, including signature wins over the AFC North-leading Titans and division rival Rams. Arizona had the lowest odds to win the NFC West going into the season, but if they can win the division and finish with a top-two seed, Kingsbury could very well win the award.

Matt LaFleur (+600)

Heading into the season, there was a ton of uncertainty with the Packers due to the offseason drama surrounding Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. But the Packers have looked like the best team in football, in my opinion.

Much of this success can be attributed to coach Matt LaFleur, who has done an outstanding job dealing with injuries and preparing his players week in and week out. The Packers haven’t just beaten bad teams, they have beaten quality opponents that include the 49ers, Bengals, Cardinals and Rams.

LaFleur has been tremendous since joining the Packers as head coach in 2019. His career record is 35-9 and he has the Packers sitting as the NFC’s second seed with a 9-3 record. If the Packers secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC, there will be a strong case for LaFleur to take home the hardware.

NFL Coach Of The Year Value Bets

Considering our criteria of using win totals to find NFL Coach of the Year candidates, it’s hard not to see two coaches in particular who stand out, with Bruce Arians’ Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kliff Kingsbury’s Arizona Cardinals tied for first in projected win totals.

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While it can often be the case that the coach with the best record doesn’t win the award because another team had an unexpected rise in the standings (Stefanski’s Browns last year), we have seen coaches earn the accolade when their team has an outstanding win total.

If either the Bucs or Cardinals win 12 or more games and stand alone at the top, their coaches will be strong contenders for this award. Arians currently sits tied for 12th in NFL Coach of the Year odds at +4000, while Kingsbury is second at +375.

Bengals coach Zac Taylor is a solid bet at +800 as well. When I first brought up Taylor as a great value bet a month ago, he was sitting at +3500. The Bengals got off to a solid start and are currently in a playoff spot at 7-4. If Cincinnati can get into the playoffs, Taylor should be right up there in Coach of the Year voting. If they win their division, he could very well take it home.

Best Bet: Bill Belichick (+325)