Washington Redskins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After three consecutive wins straight up and against the spread, the Redskins regressed to the mean like an anvil. The Atlanta Falcons carved up their top-10 defense for 491 yards and 38 points to drop Washington to 5-3 overall and against the spread this season.

If Tampa Bay hadn’t spotted Carolina 14 first-quarter points, Ryan Fitzpatrick appeared to have just enough juice to cover the +6. The Buccaneers defense just can’t get enough stops and/or get off the field to hand the ball over to one of the NFL’s top-ranked offenses. The Panthers’ 42-28 win dropped Tampa to 3-5 overall and against the spread this season.

However, Buccaneers backers believe there is enough Fitzmagic in the air to take down the Redskins. After Sportsbook as a pick’em, Tampa Bay is a 1.5-point home favorite with some books offering 2.5. Washington’s moneyline is +113 and the total is 51.5.

Redskins vs Bucs Game Center

WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 9

Buccaneers – Tampa has no semblance of a running game. Granted, the Buccaneers typically abandon it because of early deficits, but Peyton Barber leaves little to be desired as the team’s lead back. He’s rushed for 33 or fewer yards in five of eight games, which is odd because in his other three he’s averaged 79 yards. As a team, the Bucs average 3.8 yards per carry, which ranks 29th.

With three touchdown strikes against the Panthers, Fitzpatrick has tossed three or more touchdowns in each one of his completed starts. Matt Ryan just torched the Redskins secondary for four scores and 350 yards.

Redskins – Washington’s offensive line is a mess. Trent Williams was already expected to miss a month with a thumb injury before Shawn Lauvao suffered a season-ending ACL knee injury and right guard Brandon Scherff a season-ending torn pec against the Falcons. This negatively impacts Alex Smith’s pass protection and Adrian Peterson’s ability to shove Father Time to the corner and run wild like he has multiple times this season. Remember, for all their faults, Tampa Bay’s pass rush isn’t bad and is averaging two sacks per game. It was also learned Monday that Smith’s vertical threat, Paul Richardson, was placed on injured reserve as he needs shoulder surgery.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: LAUNDRY DAY

Washington was flagged 10 times for 147 yards in its loss to the Falcons. Over the past three seasons, teams that commit 10 or more penalties in a game are 141-141-13 against the spread. The Redskins have committed the fourth-most penalties on defense and average seven per game.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: A.P. OR BUST

The Falcons held Adrian Peterson to 17 rush yards on nine carries. He’s now finished with 20 or fewer rush yards in three games and 96 or more yards in the other five games this season. Over the course of his entire career, when Peterson rushes for 90 or more yards, his teams are 40-20-3 against the spread. Get this man some blockers.

TAMPA BAY, FL FORECAST

Partly cloudy with temperatures in the low 80s with 72 percent humidity. Soupy. Forecasted winds are not expected to impact the game.

Washington’s Dustin Hopkins is 14-for-16 on field goals and 16-for-16 on extra points. Tampa’s Chandler Catanzaro made all four of his extra points at Carolina, but remains shaky at 23-for-27 on XP and 10-for-12 on field-goal attempts.

MY PICK

Washington has only played three road games this season. They beat the Cardinals in Week 1, got hammered 43-19 by the Saints and beat the 1-7 Giants 20-13. The warm, muggy temps will no doubt be a test for the visiting Redskins. Don’t discount that as Miami has also used the weather to its home-field advantage. So long as Fitzpatrick doesn’t hand the game to the Redskins secondary, I do believe this is a game the Buccaneers can win. However, with a pick’em moving this much to a 3-5 squad with no rushing game and no defense makes me nervous.

I’d lean the OVER for now and let others be wrong ATS.