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Week 4 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

NFL Week 4 Picks, Trends and Stats

Don’t make bets based on assumptions. A very common one that bettors often rely on is that teams coming off a Thursday night game have a big edge due to playing with extra rest. The fact of the matter is, the extra rest has provided no edge for spread bettors as teams in that spot are 89-87-2 ATS over the last five years. A smaller sample size saw them go 18-18-2 ATS last season.

A similar assumption is that teams coming off a Monday night game are at a disadvantage due to playing on short rest. Over a five-year period, this is barely the case as they’ve gone 81-97-2 ATS in that spot, meaning the opponent covered in 54.4 percent of games — hardly a percentage that carries much weight to back a bet with.

The top five net yards per play teams are a combined 12-3 ATS

Instead of making assumptions based on situations that are proven not to provide much of an edge, find other more tangible reasons to quantify your bets. One of my favorite things to look at is net yards per play and it’s no surprise that this season’s best net yards per play teams are also great bets.

The Redskins, Rams, Bucs, Dolphins and Bengals are the top five net yards per play teams. They combine to have a 12-3 ATS record. You’ll find some important notes on net yards per play on some of the games below, so keep these in mind when building evidence to make a bet.

My best bets for Week 4:

Week 3 produced one of my best betting days in recent memory as my primer picks went 9-3, so let’s keep that going. Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 4 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, September 27:

  • Eagles -4
  • Dolphins +7
  • Buccaneers +3
  • Falcons -4
  • Chiefs -4.5
  • Chargers -7.5 first-half spread
  • UNDER 51 for Ravens vs Steelers (more on that here)
  • UNDER 19.5 for Titans’ team total
  • OVER 20.5 for Dolphins’ team total
  • OVER 20.5 for Seahawks’ team total
  • UNDER 23.5 for Cowboys’ team total

Week 4 NFL Stats and Trends:

Vikings at Rams
  • Over the last 3 seasons, when a team plays 3 straight home games, they're 31-16-2 ATS in the third game. Last season, teams were 12-5 ATS in this situation. This is the Rams' third straight home game.
  • The Vikings beat the Rams 24-7 last season. Todd Gurley was held to 37 rushing yards on 15 carries.
  • Under Sean McVay, the Rams are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS as a favorite of 7 or more. Their average margin of victory in these games is 22 points.
  • The Rams are tied for the league lead in net yards per play.
  • The Vikings are rushing for the second-fewest yards per game at 66.
  • Todd Gurley has scored at least one TD in every game this season and is averaging 125.3 total yards per game.
  • Kirk Cousins ranks 12th in QB rating, Jared Goff ranks 6th.
  • The Vikings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games at night.
  • The Vikings are 5-0 SU in their last five games after a loss.
  • The Rams are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on Thursday.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Rams' last five games at night.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Vikings' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 45.88)
49ers at Chargers
  • The Chargers are 9-0 SU in their last nine games at home after consecutive road games. Their win margin in these games is 14.11.
  • In his last seven home games, Philip Rivers has thrown 15 TDs and just one interception.
  • The Chargers are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games at home.
  • The 49ers averaged 16.1 points per game in games that C.J. Beathard played in last season.
  • In the first half this season, the Chargers are averaging 17.7 points. The 49ers are averaging 8.7.
  • The 49ers are 0-3 ATS on the first-half spread to start the season.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the 49ers' last six games. (Avg combined score: 55.67)
  • The 49ers are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games vs the Chargers.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the 49ers' last 10 games vs the Chargers. (Avg combined score: 54.1)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Chargers' last 14 games. (Avg combined score: 42.0)
  • The 49ers are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on the road in September.
Bengals at Falcons
  • Over the last 3 seasons, when a team plays 3 straight home games, they're 31-16-2 ATS in the third game. Last season, teams were 12-5 ATS in this situation. This is the Falcons' third straight home game.
  • The Falcons are 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games at home in September.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Falcons' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 40.2)
  • The visiting team is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven games in this matchup.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Bengals' last seven games vs the Falcons. (Avg combined score: 51.29)
  • The Falcons are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as underdog.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Bengals' last four games. (Avg combined score: 56.0)
Bills at Packers
  • The Bills rank 31st in the league in net yards per play.
  • Aaron Rodgers’ last 11 home games: 31 TDs, 3 INTs
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bills' last four games vs the Packers. (Avg combined score: 29.75)
  • The Packers are 27-7-1 SU in their last 35 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games at home in September.
  • Clay Matthews is the dirtiest player in NFL history due to his recent treatment of quarterbacks.
  • The Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
  • The Bills are 1-17 SU in their last 18 games as a double-digit underdog.
  • The Bills are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road after winning their most recent road game.
Buccaneers at Bears
  • The Bucs rank 3rd in net yards per play. The Bears rank 25th.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick ranks 2nd in QB rating, Mitch Trubisky ranks 25th.
  • The Bears are allowing the second-fewest rush yards per game at 65.3. Tampa Bay is rushing for the third-fewest at 72.7.
  • The Bucs are tied for allowing the most pass yards per game at 362.7.
  • The Bears are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Bears' last six games. (Avg combined score: 34.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Buccaneers' last 10 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 55.3)
  • The Bears are 0-7 SU in their last seven games after consecutive wins.
  • The Buccaneers are 5-20 SU in their last 25 games on the road vs the Bears.
Dolphins at Patriots
  • The Dolphins rank 4th in net yards per play. New England ranks 27th.
  • The Dolphins are 10-1 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 Ryan Tannehill starts (also 5-1 O/U in the last six).
  • The Patriots are 8-0 SU in their last eight games at home. (Avg winning margin: 14.38)
  • The Dolphins are 0-9 SU in their last nine games on the road vs the Patriots. Their average losing margin in these games is 18.22.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Dolphins' last four games vs the Patriots. (Avg combined score: 50.75)
  • The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last six games on the road vs the Patriots.
  • The Patriots are 19-2 SU in their last 21 games vs their division at home.
  • The Patriots are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Dolphins' last 14 games. (Avg combined score: 46.86)
  • The Dolphins are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs their division on the road.
  • Tom Brady’s last 10 home games: 26 TDs, 3 INTs.
Eagles at Titans
  • The Titans are averaging the third-fewest points per game with 16.3. Philly is allowing just 18.3 points per game.
  • The Eagles are allowing the fewest rushing yards per game (61.7).
  • The total has gone OVER in 16 of the Eagles' last 21 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 51.95)
  • The Titans are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games after an ATS win.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Eagles' last four games vs the Titans. (Avg combined score: 54.5)
  • The Titans are 7-1 SU in their last eight games at home.
  • The Eagles are 7-2 SU in their last nine games in the early afternoon.
  • The Eagles are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games vs the AFC.
Jets at Jaguars
  • The Jaguars are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after an ATS loss.
  • Over the last 3 seasons, when a team plays 3 straight home games, they're 31-16-2 ATS in the third game. Last season, teams were 12-5 ATS in this situation. This is the Jaguars' third straight home game.
  • The Jaguars are 7-1 SU in their last eight games at home.
  • The Jets are 4-0 SU in their last four games vs the Jaguars.
  • The Jets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Jaguars.
  • I don’t expect this game to be very exciting. I won't be watching.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Jets' last five games. (Avg combined score: 37.6)
  • The Jets are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The Jets are 0-7 SU in their last seven games on the road vs teams with winning records.
Lions at Cowboys
  • The Cowboys are averaging the second-fewest points per game at 13.7.
  • The Lions are allowing a league-high 149.3 rushing yards per game.
  • The Lions are allowing the fewest passing yards per game at 152. Dallas is allowing the fourth-fewest at 182.7.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Cowboys' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 30.0)
  • The Lions are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games on the road vs the Cowboys.
  • The Cowboys are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.
  • The Lions are 3-1 ATS in their last four games.
  • The Lions are 14-48 SU in their last 62 games as road underdogs.
Texans at Colts
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Texans' last three games vs the Colts. (Avg combined score: 36.0)
  • The Texans are 2-14 SU in their last 16 games on the road vs the Colts. Their losing margin in the 14 losses is 13.64.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Colts' last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 36.55)
  • The Colts are 25-10 SU in their last 35 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Colts are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.
  • The Texans are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Texans are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Texans' last five games. (Avg combined score: 41.6)
  • The Texans are 0-9 SU in their last nine games. (Avg losing margin: 13.11)
Browns at Raiders
  • The last time the Browns won two straight games was in 2014. The last time they covered the spread in four straight games within the same season was in 2012.
  • The Browns are 0-22 SU in their last 22 games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 12.32). They're 6-15-1 ATS in these games.
  • The Raiders are 3-0 ATS on the first-half spread this season.
  • The Raiders are 0-7 SU in their last seven games. (Avg losing margin: 10.29)
  • The Raiders are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • If the Raiders lose to the Browns, they're this year's Browns.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Raiders' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 39.7)
  • The Browns are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs the Raiders.
  • The Browns are 12-32-1 ATS in their last 45 games.
Saints at Giants
  • The Saints are averaging the 2nd-most points per game with 34.7. The Giants rank 27th with 18.3.
  • Saints games this season have seen an average combined score of 69. Nice.
  • The Saints are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games on the road.
  • In seven career games vs the Giants, Drew Brees has thrown 20 TDs and four INTs.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Saints' last six games. (Avg combined score: 62.0)
  • The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after an ATS win.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Saints' last five games vs the Giants. (Avg combined score: 71.4)
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Giants' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 36.3)
  • The Giants are 0-6 SU in their last six games in the late afternoon.
  • The Saints are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games.
Seahawks at Cardinals
  • The Cardinals rank last in the league in net yards per play and are averaging a league-low 6.7 points per game and a league-low 58.3 rushing yards per game.
  • In two games vs Arizona last season, Russell Wilson threw for four TDs and had a 109.9 QB rating.
  • The Cardinals are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs their division at home.
  • The Seahawks are 4-0-1 SU in their last five games on the road vs the Cardinals. (Avg winning margin: 15.4)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Cardinals' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 31.57)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Seahawks' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 38.88)
Ravens at Steelers
  • This is the highest total for this matchup (51 points) in OddsShark’s database which goes all the way back to 1984.
  • Joe Flacco has a QB rating of 42.6 in his last six games vs Pittsburgh.
  • The Steelers are 13-0 SU in their last 13 games at night. Their win margin in these games is 11.77.
  • The Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at night.
  • The Ravens are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games at night.
  • The Ravens won six of their last eight prime-time games vs the Steelers.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Steelers' last five games at night.
  • The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs the Steelers.
  • The Ravens are 0-3 SU in their last three games vs the Steelers. (Avg losing margin: 7.33)
  • The Ravens are 9-24 SU in their last 33 games on the road vs the Steelers.
  • The Steelers are 10-0-1 SU in their last 11 games vs divisional opponents. (Avg winning margin: 6.27)
  • The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Ravens' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 46.88)
  • The Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs their division on the road.
Chiefs at Broncos
  • The favorite is 15-3 SU in the last 18 MNF games. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six MNF games.
  • The Chiefs are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 divisional road games.
  • The Chiefs are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six night games.
  • The Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games on Monday.
  • The Chiefs are averaging a league-high 39.3 points per game, while allowing the third-most points per game with 30.7.
  • The Chiefs are tied for allowing the most pass yards per game at 362.7.
  • The Chiefs are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games vs divisional opponents. Their win margin in the 17 wins is 12 points.
  • The Chiefs are 5-0 SU in their last five games vs the Broncos. (Avg winning margin: 11.0)
  • The Chiefs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Chiefs' last four games vs the Broncos. (Avg combined score: 49.75)
  • The visiting team is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games in this matchup.

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