Ducks vs Senators Odds & Picks: Sens Easily Win At Home

Tonight two teams near the bottom of their respective Conferences meet at the Canadian Tire Center with the Ottawa Senators welcoming the Anaheim Ducks. Ottawa is the overwhelming favorite at -230 on the BET99 moneyline, despite losing three of their last four games against the Ducks at the CTC. Like the books, I believe the Sens are the much better team here and will easily walk away with both points. 

Here's a moneyline, total, and player prop pick for tonight's Ducks vs Senators matchup that could push the Sens to the cusp of a playoff position with a win. 

Ducks vs Senators Odds

Matchup Page: Ducks vs Senators, December 11, 7:30 pm ET

Odds as of December 11 at BET99

Ducks vs Senators Picks

Senators ML (-230) at BET99

With only two wins in my last 14 expert picks, I'm simplifying my game and going after a sure result tonight by betting on an Ottawa win even if it's only yielding -230 odds. A win tonight would be massive for the Sens, getting both points against the Ducks would have them two points out of the final Wild Card position in the East with a game in hand, and after a recent 4-2 loss to the Islanders where Ottawa outshot the Long Island crew 31-16, they'll be hungry for a dub.

The Ducks seem allergic to any success going 2-6SU in their last eight games and 0-3SU since Trevor Zegras joined Leo Carlsson on the injury list. Trading for Jacob Trouba hasn't done much, yet, though he's only played a single game for Anaheim where he was a -1 but had five hits. Looking under the hood shows that the Ducks' lack of success isn't a surprise, they hold the fifth-lowest 5on5 expected goals percentage (46%) over the league's last 10 games.

Meanwhile, the Sens are playing good hockey with the eighth-best 5on5 expected goals percentage (56%) in a five-game sample despite their 2-3SU record in those five games. Tim Stutzle has carried the Sens offensively in that span with a goal and five points, BET99 has OVER 1.5 points for Stutzle tonight at +185.

Anaheim hasn't been good lately while Ottawa's underlying numbers show it's performing well, the results will come for the Sens, specifically tonight at home as -230 home favorites.

Ducks vs Senators Pick: UNDER 6 (-105)

If you're a totals bettor you should know that the total has gone UNDER in eight of the last 10 games between the Ducks and Senators, because of how infrequently these two play that trend dates back to 2019, a trend that's lasted multiple regime changes has legs.

The UNDER has also hit in seven of the Ducks' last 10 games and five of their last six road games. Goalie John Gibson, who should be getting the start tonight with Lukas Dostal starting in Montreal two nights ago, has great career numbers against the Sens with a 0.945 save percentage and 1.61 goals-against average in eight games. 

Ducks vs Senators Player Prop

Frank Vatrano OVER 0.5 Points (-115) at BET99

Per Outlier, Vatrano's trends don't support taking the OVER tonight with UNDER 0.5 goals hitting in 16 of his last 19 road games and UNDER 0.5 assists hitting in 11 of his last 13 road games, but I'll take the OVER anyway. Let me explain why.

First, take a look at those trends closely, Vatrano has gone OVER 0.5 points in back-to-back road games and has a point in three of his last six road games. Now consider how productive he is against these Ottawa Senators, Frank has seven points in his last five games against the Sens and had two goals and an assist against them earlier this year. Vatrano's points prop will hit tonight.

Ducks vs Senators Betting Trends