When it comes to scoring in the NHL, we think it’s fair to say goalies are, uh, pretty important.
A good goalie can mean the difference between a blowout win or loss, and can almost single-handedly will a team to a Stanley Cup championship (I’m looking at you, 2012 Jonathan Quick!).
So, it should be pretty obvious that goalies are important when we’re betting on hockey.
To that end, we took a look at which goalies have been hitting the OVER in their game totals the most this season, as well as over the last three and five seasons. That produced some interesting results.
Top OVER Goalies In 2022 (Min. 20 games played)
| Goalie | OVER Record |
|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen (MIN/SJ) | 16-6-1 (72.7%) |
| Samuel Montembault (MON) | 14-7 (66.7%) |
| Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA) | 25-13-1 (65.8%) |
| Ilya Samsonov (WAS) | 19-10 (65.5%) |
| Craig Anderson (BUF) | 13-7-2 (65%) |
| Martin Jones (PHI) | 14-9 (60.9%) |
| Elvis Merzlikins (CBJ) | 20-14-2 (58.8%) |
| John Gibson (ANA) | 24-17-2 (58.5%) |
| Ville Husso (STL) | 14-10 (58.3%) |
| Robin Lehner (VGK) | 19-14-3 (57.6%) |
Results as of March 28 via Odds Shark data services
There are a couple of interesting names that pop up on this list immediately, with the first being the recently traded Kaapo Kahkonen – Kahkonen was dealt from Minnesota to San Jose at the trade deadline after the Wild acquired Marc-Andre Fleury.
It’s a bit surprising to see Kahkonen because he has shown lots of promise in his young career. His numbers aren’t great this year (.910 SV%, 2.92 GAA), but his GAA with Minnesota this year was the lowest of his career so far and he had a decent 12-8-1 record.
But 72.7 percent of his games have gone OVER the total, and his move to an equally mediocre defensive team in San Jose might not change those outcomes. Keep an eye on the total when Kahkonen is in net for the Sharks.
It shouldn’t be overly surprising to see goalies on this list who play for poor teams like Buffalo, Montreal, Columbus and Philadelphia. But what is a little surprising is seeing top-flight goalies such as Husso and Gibson on the list. These two are thought of as two of the better netminders in the league, but we should be paying close attention to the total when they’re in the crease.
Top OVER Goalies Last Three Seasons (Min. 20 games played per season)
| Goalie | OVER Record |
|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 71-39-7 (64.5%) |
| Ilya Samsonov | 42-28 (60%) |
| Robin Lehner | 55-45-7 (55%) |
| Braden Holtby | 45-41-6 (52.3%) |
| Martin Jones | 44-41-2 (51.8%) |
| Frederik Andersen | 58-57-2 (50.4%) |
| Philipp Grubauer | 63-62-5 (50.4%) |
| Jordan Binnington | 61-61-2 (50%) |
| Tristan Jarry | 58-60-4 (49.2%) |
| Juuse Saros | 61-63-5 (49.2%) |
Results as of March 28 via Odds Shark data services
When we expand the data to look at the top OVER goalies for the last three seasons, we see some names that overlap with the first list.
Sergei Bobrovsky is right at the top of the list as more than 64 percent of his games over the last three years have hit the OVER. The 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons were the two worst statistically of Bob’s career, but it’s still a bit surprising to see a two-time Vezina Sportsbook on top of this list.
Lehner, Samsonov and Jones also appear on both lists. Hammer the OVER if any of them are slated to appear between the pipes.
The numbers themselves are interesting here as well. There are only eight goalies who have had more OVERs than UNDERs hit over the last three seasons, and outside the top couple, the percentages are right around 50 percent.
Top OVER Goalies Last Five Seasons (Min. 20 games played per season)
| Goalie | OVER Record |
|---|---|
| Braden Holtby | 115-96-12 (54.5%) |
| Frederik Andersen | 126-112-12 (52.9%) |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 127-114-11 (52.7%) |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | 156-151-21 (50.8%) |
| Juuse Saros | 87-86-6 (50.3%) |
| Martin Jones | 109-108-7 (50.2%) |
| James Reimer | 65-68-9 (48.9%) |
| Connor Hellebuyck | 141-148-18 (48.8%) |
| Cam Talbot | 90-98-7 (47.9% |
| Philipp Grubauer | 93-101-8 (47.9% |
Results as of March 28 via Odds Shark data services
The list for top OVER goalies over the last five years has many of the same names as in the previous lists, with a couple new ones.
Keep in mind there are only so many goalies in the league who would qualify for this list, but it seems like we should really be paying attention to Braden Holtby starts.
While he isn’t on the list for this season, Holtby has consistently been a part of OVER games for the last five years.
Bobrovsky appears here again, as does Jones. These two are the only ones on all three lists.
Superstar goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy appears on this one and the previous list, an interesting player to show up here considering how good he is.
But in his particular case, it wouldn’t be surprising if a good number of his games went OVER because the Tampa Bay Lightning simply scored a bunch of goals on their opponent and pushed the number OVER. That same logic applies to Frederik Andersen, who isn’t on the list for this year but is for the last three and last five seasons, the majority of which he played with the high-scoring, (mostly) poor-defending Maple Leafs.
It is worth pointing out again that even among the top OVER goalies over the last five seasons, only three have hit the OVER more than 51 percent of the time and only Holtby is over 53 percent.
That tells us it’s more or less a coin flip over a large sample of games whether even the worst goalies in the league will hit the OVER. However, it is worth paying attention to within an individual season as those percentages can trend much higher in a smaller sample.
Stay tuned for our list of the top UNDER goalies.
