It's official, Canada and the USA will meet in the Olympic Gold Medal game on Sunday morning. A big chunk of both groups saw each other last February at the 4 Nations Face-Off. The Americans took the round-robin meeting, a game that exploded with three fights in the opening nine seconds, before Connor McDavid answered back with an overtime winner in the final days later. Same stars, same tension, now with Olympic gold on the line.
These rivals haven’t met for Olympic gold since Sidney Crosby ended it in overtime in 2010. Now the Americans are chasing their first gold since 1980. It's Canada that enters this game as the -126 favorites at Bet99 with the total set at 5.5 goals.
USA vs. canada Odds
When: Sunday, February 22nd, 8:10 AM ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | +1.5 (-230) | +105 | OVER 5.5 (+130) |
| Canada | -1.5 (+190) | -125 | UNDER 5.5 (-155) |
Odds as of February 21st, 2026 at Bet99
USA vs. canada Pick
Canada hasn’t had a smooth ride to Sunday. They were down in both the quarters and semis and needed a late power-play goal from Nathan MacKinnon to sneak past Finland 3-2. That comeback mentality matters, though. This group doesn’t panic and that will matter in a game as massive as this one.
They may have to fight for gold without captain Sidney Crosby, who left the quarterfinal against Czechia with a lower body injury and didn’t suit up in the semifinal. There’s been minimal information about his status, but coach Jon Cooper told media Crosby’s chances of playing in the final are better than they were a game ago. Even if he’s limited or out, Canada's depth has got it covered.
Up front is where Canada is scary. Connor McDavid leads the tournament with 13 points in five games and MacKinnon has been clutch, netting four goals and seven points. Add teenage breakout Macklin Celebrini’s five goals, and Jon Cooper can load up a line or spread the wealth across his units. That level of flexibility is an advantage.
The Americans just blew the doors off Slovakia 6-2 with Jack Hughes and Jack Eichel pocketing goals 19-seconds apart. Through five games, 15 different Americans have at least two points; challenging the same balance Canada has. Notably, Quinn Hughes has been their most productive player, already up to seven points from the blue line. The biggest USA advantage is in net. Connor Hellebuyck owns the tournament’s best goals-against average (1.23) and save percentage (.947%). Only five goals have slipped past the 6-foot-4 netminder, the fewest in the tournament. If this turns into a goalie duel, that leans American.
Be aware of Canada's special teams as the Canadians are capitalizing on 43.75% of power plays, the best mark in the tournament. But, the Americans have yet to allow a goal shorthanded. Still, with both teams, two of only three in the field made up entirely of NHL players, that perfect penalty kill is at risk.
If the USA plays it calm, cool and collected, letting Hellebuyck do his thing, they can control the pace of this game and wear Canada out. But if McDavid, and his star-studded teammates, find space and their top power-play unit excels, momentum can flip. This one comes down to who outshines in special teams, parks more traffic around the crease, and maybe gets one lucky bounce. I wouldn't be surprised if it’s decided by a single goal. However, I suspect both goalies to be dialed in. Buckle up, we're in for a ride!
USA vs. Canada Pick: UNDER 5.5 (-155)
*Pick made February 21st
USA vs. canada Prop Bet
Connor McDavid 5+ Shots On Goal (-225)
If I didn't make it obvious enough above, getting past Hellebuyck is going to take some blood, sweat and possibly tears. Connor McDavid, who leads the tournament with 24 shots and has recorded 4+ in every game this tournament, is familiar with Hellebuyck, his fellow Western Conference opponent at the NHL level. Notably, McDavid has the second-most career shots against Winnipeg (127), a mark that trails his career-high of 161 vs. Calgary. However, he does have a career-high 51 assists against the Jets and has compiled 64 total points. All this shows he knows how to drive a play, and he knows he needs to fire plenty of shots, against the league's back-to-back Vezina Trophy winner.
