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Premier League’s Best (and Worst) Bets

Premier League Best and Worst Bets Sheffield United

The Premier League returns to action this week with a pair of “makeup” games on Wednesday as Aston Villa faces Sheffield United and Arsenal gets the pleasure of playing Manchester City. This comes before a full Matchday 30 from Friday through Monday and a quick turnaround to Matchday 31 that goes from Tuesday to Thursday.

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The matches will be coming thick and fast right from the get-go so it will be interesting to see how teams and players adjust to being off for so long and then jumping right into the fray with a heavily congested fixture list.

Germany’s Bundesliga has been back for about a month now and Spain’s La Liga just resumed. It’s been well documented just how poorly home teams have been performing in the Bundesliga and that continued this past weekend as Bayern Munich was the only home team to get a win. It was a bit of a different story in La Liga, however, as hosts won four and drew three to get the slight edge over the visitors.

Now, I’m going to break down the best and worst moneyline, OVER/UNDER and spread bets in the Premier League before the COVID-19 hiatus, but in case you forgot, here is where things stood before league play was interrupted.

The league is basically wrapped up as Liverpool is a whopping 25 points ahead of second-place Manchester City. It was an incredible season by the Reds with 27 wins, one draw and just one loss. Staggering numbers.

Norwich (21 points), Aston Villa (25) and Bournemouth (27) currently own the relegation spots at 20th, 19th and 18th respectively. The race for the third and final spot looks to be a thrilling one as the Cherries are even on 27 points with West Ham and Watford while Brighton is only two up with 29.

Arsenal and Burnley were on pretty good form before the break as the Gunners had gone unbeaten in eight (four wins, four draws) and the Clarets were unbeaten in seven (four wins, three draws).

Brighton hasn’t won a game since December 28, which means they get back into action on a winless run of nine games (six draws, three losses), although Villa currently owns the longest losing streak at four.

Before getting into it, if you’re new to betting soccer, make sure you read our page on how to bet soccer and don’t forget to check out our Premier League futures odds page. You know, just in case you want to take a punt on Manchester City if you think the most improbable collapse in sports history is about to happen.

Most Profitable ML Bet: Norwich (+$2359.00)

So how on earth does a team that has just five wins become the top moneyline earner in the league based on blindly betting $100 on each of their games?

Well, cashing as +3400 underdogs in a thrilling 3-2 win over Manchester City will do that.

Easily the biggest moneyline upset this season, the Canaries raced out to a 2-0 start before Sergio Agüero got City on the board. But it was fabulous Finn Teemu Puuki netting the winner in the 50th minute and putting the game out of reach.

Fun fact: not only was that the biggest moneyline upset this season, but it was the biggest upset of (at least) the past five Premier League seasons. Odds Shark Premier League data only dates back to the 2015-16 season.

Norwich also scored another big upset away to Everton with a 2-0 win as +780 dogs and another decent-sized upset at home against Leicester as +335 dogs. So while the Canaries do only have the five wins, they are no strangers to cashing big time for their backers.

Southampton is up next for the Canaries on Friday and they are currently +215 if you think they can pad this total.

Costliest ML Bet: Arsenal (-$1187.67)

Arsenal entered the hiatus on a three-game winning streak so this was even worse before beating Newcastle 4-0 (-225), Everton 3-2 (-101) and West Ham 1-0 (-155). Now, as a welcome-back gift, the Gunners take on Manchester City as +700 underdogs with a real possibility that this number inflates a bit more.

Arsenal only has nine wins so far this season, which is the fewest of anyone in the top 12. Furthermore, the club’s 13 draws are tied for the most in the league with Wolves.

In terms of closing odds, only twice has Arsenal won a game when it was on the plus side of things. The Gunners cashed at +120 away to Newcastle and at +168 at home to Manchester United.

Arsenal sits ninth in the table with 40 points and gets that game in hand out of the way against City. There looks to be a dogfight with clubs like Spurs, Sheffield United, Wolves and Manchester United for those Europa League places so the Gunners have plenty to play for to wrap their season up. As well as the City game, they have some massive fixtures against the likes of Wolves, Leicester, Spurs and Liverpool.

New manager Mikel Arteta looks to have potentially transformed the on-pitch product for the better in North London, but this run-in of games is a major, major test for the red half.

Premier League Moneyline Table
Crystal Palace+$564.91
Manchester United+$545.83
Sheffield United+$138.87
West Ham-$224.51
Manchester City-$543.08
Aston Villa-$803.00

Best OVER Record: Aston Villa (17-11 O/U)

Owning the worst defense in the league with 56 goals conceded but with a decent goal-scoring record, Aston Villa is the No. 1 OVER bet in the league by mere percentage points over Tottenham.

Villa’s poor defensive record will ultimately be their undoing as they look poised for relegation, because they aren’t a bad side in attack. They’ve scored 34 goals so far this season, which is more than seventh-place Sheffield United (30) and 11th-place Crystal Palace (32) and as many as 10th-place Burnley.

As stated above, Villa was on a real bad run of form before the break with four straight losses and conceded 11 goals in the process – a decent little four-game microcosm of their season as a whole.

Also, Villa easily allows the most shots per game at 18.1 which is 2.5 more than the next highest, which is Bournemouth’s 15.6.

Potentially even more damning is that their xGA (expected goals against) is even higher at 61.47.

Villa’s a big club that should be in the Premier League, but at this rate, this club is on a fast track back to The Championship.

At least we can bet the OVER as we watch them fall.

Best UNDER Record: Sheffield United (6-20-2 O/U)

Not surprising to see the Blades as the best UNDER wager in the league as this team has conceded the second-fewest goals (25) and has scored the sixth-fewest (30) in the league.

For what it’s worth, this has been one of the more pleasant surprises in the league this season as the promoted club sits seventh in the table with 43 points and is fighting, rightfully so, for a Europa League place.

Fittingly, Sheffield United’s last game was a 1-0 UNDER at home against Norwich. Before that was a 1-1 push against Brighton and one of their six OVERs in a 2-1 win over Bournemouth. Before that was an insane run of nine straight UNDER bets. So in their last dozen games, the Blades have cashed 10 UNDER wagers.

The big question, especially for a team like Sheffield United, is whether the hiatus will knock them off their rhythm. As stated, this side has bigger things than just safety on their mind.

Bizarrely, the Premier League’s first game back is the top OVER bet, Aston Villa, vs the top UNDER bet, Sheffield United. The previous meeting in the league was a 2-0 Blades win. At the time of writing, the total is 2, 2.5 with the OVER -125 and the UNDER +105.

What happens when a team that can’t keep the ball out of its own net meets a team that is just about as good as anyone at keeping it out?

Premier League OVER/UNDER Table
Aston Villa17-11
Manchester City14-13-1
West Ham14-14-1
Manchester United10-18-1
Crystal Palace8-20-1
Sheffield United6-20-2

Best ATS Record: Sheffield United (20-6-2 ATS)

Considering they’ve won 11 games, drawn 10 and generally keep games close (even against the titans of the league), the Blades are the best spread bet (in terms of record) in the Premier League.

Sheffield United has only lost a game by more than one goal three times this season and each of those were 2-0 – predictably away to Manchester City and Liverpool but, surprisingly, at home to Newcastle.

As I mentioned in the section about their UNDER bets, this team doesn’t concede a lot but also doesn’t score a ton, so their scorelines are more reminiscent of a La Liga side, peppered with 1-0’s and 1-1’s. They’ve only scored more than one goal seven times.

If you feel like the Sheffield United ATS trend continues, the Blades are currently 0, -0.5 at -110 in that opener against Villa.

Worst ATS Record: Arsenal (8-18-2 ATS)

Pretty funny that the two worst spread bets in the Premier League are North London rivals Tottenham (8-16-5 ATS) and Arsenal (8-18-2 ATS) and that’s fitting considering neither club has really played up to its lofty standards this season.

The Gunners come in as the worst spread bet in the league, but to their credit, that three-match winning streak entering the break featured two ATS wins and one push. So just as things were going swimmingly for Arteta and Arsenal, COVID-19 put a halt to any progress.

Arsenal is +1.5 (-105) against City on Wednesday but history isn’t on their side here. Across all competitions, City has won the last six meetings (five Premier League, one League Cup) and won each of those by at least two goals and the reverse fixture this season was a 3-0 Manchester City win.

It should be noted here that both teams are largely healthy but both Callum Chambers and Lucas Torreira look set to miss this one for Arsenal after suffering some heavy injuries earlier.

Premier League ATS Table
Sheffield United20-6-2
Crystal Palace16-8-5
Manchester United13-14-2
Aston Villa12-14-2
West Ham11-14-4
Manchester City8-15-5