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UFC 257 Odds & Expert Picks: Can Poirier Avenge Loss to McGregor?

The first UFC pay-per-view in 2021 is a big one: Conor McGregor returns for the first time in over a year to fight Dustin Poirier. In a rematch from over six years ago, the combatants are set to headline UFC 257. The MMA event is also the last of three UFC fight cards in a week at Fight Island, in Abu Dhabi of the United Arab Emirates.

It should come as no surprise to see McGregor as the betting favorite over Poirier when looking at the UFC 257 odds. So, let’s get to the UFC 257: Poirier vs McGregor 2 betting preview, expert picks and odds for each fight on the main card.

Not only does UFC 257 mark the return of Conor “The Notorious” McGregor to the Octagon, but also his return to the lightweight division where he held the title five years ago and competed with Khabib Nurmagomedov in October 2018. A win over Poirier may set up a rematch with Nurmagomedov, or at least that’s what UFC president Dana White is hoping for.

Over the past three years, only one man has been able to beat Dustin Poirier and that was Nurmagomedov in September 2019. However, if you look way back to September 2014, Poirier was stopped in the first round by McGregor in the featherweight division. Will things be different this time around? The UFC 257 odds point to McGregor as the betting favorite. 

UFC 257 Odds & Fight Card Analysis

Online sportsbook Bovada has released UFC 257 odds with the former champion, Conor McGregor, as the -315 favorite and Dustin Poirier coming back at +245. This means you would need to bet $315 on McGregor to profit $100 with a win, while a $100 bet on a Poirier victory would net you $245 of profit.

See Odds Shark’s Best UFC Sites

Looking at the UFC 257 odds for Poirier vs McGregor 2, our sports betting calculator tells us that McGregor’s odds of -315 represent an implied win probability of 75.90 percent while Poirier’s odds of +245 have an implied win probability of 28.99 percent.

UFC 257 Betting Odds & Fight Card Preview


Odds – UFC 257: Poirier vs McGregor 2
  • Main Card:
  • Lightweight – Conor McGregor (-315) vs Dustin Poirier (+245)
  • Lightweight – Dan Hooker (-150) vs Michael Chandler (+120)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Jessica Eye (-105) vs Joanne Calderwood (-125)
  • Middleweight – Andrew Sanchez (+135) vs Makhmud Muradov (-165)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Marina Rodriguez (+255) vs Amanda Ribas (-335)
  • Prelims:
  • Lightweight – Arman Tsarukyan (-700) vs Matt Frevola (+450)
  • Middleweight – Brad Tavares (-120) vs Antonio Carlos Junior (-110)
  • Women's Bantamweight – Julianna Pena (EVEN) vs Sara McMann (-130)
  • Light Heavyweight – Khalil Rountree Jr. (-370) vs Marcin Prachnio (+280)
  • Catchweight – Nik Lentz (+450) vs Movsar Evloev (-700)
  • Flyweight – Amir Albazi (-115) vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-115)

New to betting on the fights? Check out our UFC betting guide to help you get in the action. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date betting lines.


Broadcast Information – UFC 257: Poirier vs McGregor 2
  • Date/Time: January 23, 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Abu Dhabi, UAB
  • Arena: Etihad Arena
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor 2: Betting Preview & Fight Prediction 

FighterOdds
Conor McGregor-315
Dustin Poirier+245

It is crazy to think about it but with his inactivity in the Octagon, McGregor (-315) will be searching for his first lightweight victory since November 2016 when he won the lightweight strap. Meanwhile, Poirier (+245) has been much more active over that span, fighting eight times since the start of 2017 and posting a record of 6-1-1, with his only loss coming to Khabib Nurmagomedov.


McGregor: Need to Knows
  • The former featherweight and lightweight king is definitely one of the best in the promotion, and the UFC 257 odds favor him. Of McGregor's 26 pro fights, 24 have been stoppages. He has 19 knockout wins and one submission victory while all four of his defeats have been submissions.
  • The southpaw is aggressive and accurate, landing 5.43 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.40. Though his grappling has been criticized, he stuffs 70 percent of his opponents’ takedown attempts.
  • McGregor closes space rapidly and is intimidating as he holds his left hand low, ready to fire it like a piston at his adversary. With a 74-inch reach, he covers a lot of area when he throws. When he lands, it only takes one to end the night.
  • With his wide stance, “Notorious” is susceptible to leg kicks. But typically, people will drop their hands when throwing a leg kick, opening up opportunities for his lightning-quick and powerful counters.
  • Getting McGregor in a dogfight can tire him and take away his timing and distance, but that’s an extremely dangerous game to play because if his counterpart makes a mistake upon entry, he’ll be knocked out.
  • McGregor’s last three fights were Eddie Alvarez (win – knockout), Khabib Nurmagomedov (loss – submission) and Donald Cerrone (win – knockout).


Poirier: Need to Knows
  • It was just under two years ago that “The Diamond” was the interim lightweight champion beating featherweight champion Max Holloway for a shot to fight Nurmagomedov. In UFC 257 odds, Poirier comes in as the underdog. Of his 32 pro fights, 24 have been stoppages. He has 12 knockout wins and seven submission victories, while he’s been knocked out and submitted twice each.
  • Also a southpaw, Poirier maintains a high pace, averaging 5.57 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.18. He also averages 1.46 takedowns per 15 minutes but has only secured two over his last five fights.
  • Poirier typically pushes his opponents back with strong footwork and good kicks to batter them. Many times when foes kick above the waist, he does a good job catching the kick, which he will counter over the top or go for the takedown.
  • With his forward pressure, he can walk into heavy shots, but if he can close the distance and get into a dogfight, that’s where he does his best work wearing on his opponent and doing damage. He admitted McGregor got into his head when they fought the first time; we shall see if the same happens this time around.
  • Poirier’s last three fights were Max Holloway (win – unanimous decision), Khabib Nurmagomedov (loss – submission) and Dan Hooker (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Conor McGregor (-315) via knockout

For more on this fight, check out my odds analysis article.

Dan Hooker vs Michael Chandler: Betting Preview & Fight Prediction 

FighterOdds
Dan Hooker-150
Michael Chandler+120

Welcome to the UFC, Michael “Iron” Chandler (+120), who has spent nearly his entire career in Bellator and was a three-time lightweight champion there. Looking to spoil his debut and return to the win column is Dan “The Hangman” Hooker (-150), coming off two tremendous fight of the night performances in 2020.


Hooker: Need to Knows
  • Although The Hangman split his two 2020 bouts, both were wildly entertaining, high tempo and aggressive. Of his 20 pro wins, 17 have been stoppages, 10 by knockout and seven by submission. Six of his nine losses have been by decision.
  • Hooker is big and long for the lightweight division, standing six feet tall with a 75-inch reach. He uses that reach well with crisp, accurate, straight punches and powerful kicks. His footwork is very good, allowing him to land cleanly and avoid damage coming back.
  • More recently, we have seen him go to his wrestling, securing five takedowns in his last two fights after not landing one in his previous five bouts.
  • The Hangman can be goaded into giving up his reach advantage by getting into a dogfight or chasing his opponent and walking into a punch, but his iron chin allows him to do this with few repercussions.
  • Hooker’s last three fights were Al Iaquinta (win – unanimous decision), Paul Felder (win – split decision) and Dustin Poirier (loss – unanimous decision).


Chandler: Need to Knows
  • As mentioned off the top, this is a three-time Bellator lightweight champion who has victories over former UFC lightweight champions Benson Henderson (twice) and Eddie Alvarez. Of his 21 wins, 16 have been stoppages, nine by knockout and seven by submission. Three of his five losses have come by knockout
  • Iron was an all-American Division I wrestler and that is his bread and butter in the cage. If he can get his hands on his opponent, he may send them for a ride, but stands as the underdog in UFC 257 betting odds. On the feet, almost everything he throws is with bad intentions, but it typically puts him in a bad spot if he misses.
  • Chandler will have a six-inch reach disadvantage and doesn’t have a ton of head movement, so he is a target to be hit. But he’s extremely fast with his right hand, which he will throw from varying angles to keep his opponents on edge.
  • Chandler’s last three fights were Patricio Freire (loss – knockout), Sidney Outlaw (win – knockout) and Benson Henderson (win – knockout).

Prediction: Michael Chandler (+120) via decision

Jessica Eye vs Joanne Calderwood: Betting  Preview & Fight Prediction 

FighterOdds
Jessica Eye-105
Joanne Calderwood-125

Two women looking to get back in the win column will be on tap to set up the main events. The favorite in UFC 257 odds, Jessica “Evil” Eye (-105) took a loss in her only appearance in 2020, falling to Cynthia Calvillo in a five-round decision. Similarly, Joanne “JoJo” Calderwood (-125) lost her 2020 fight by submission to Jennifer Maia, who went on to fight for a title in her next fight.


Eye: Need to Knows
  • Eye parlayed a three-fight winning streak in 2018 into a title shot with Valentina Shevchenko in 2019, which didn’t end well as she lost by knockout in the second round. She is predominantly a striker, though 17 of her 23 pro fights have gone the distance.
  • She has good head movement, though she can stand a little flat-footed at times. Don’t expect her to level change and look for a takedown, having secured just one over her last five fights. Evil prefers a phone-booth style of fight, getting in the pocket and exchanging hands.
  • Eye has good fundamentals and never backs down, but she usually doesn’t have the power to really back her opponents off of her. Her kicks, in my opinion, are her best weapons, though she doesn’t use them as much as I’d like to see.
  • Eye’s last three fights were Valentina Shevchenko (loss – knockout), Viviane Araujo (win – unanimous decision) and Cynthia Calvillo (loss – unanimous decision).


Calderwood: Need to Knows
  • JoJo has struggled to find consistency in the Octagon, never having a winning or losing streak of more than two in a row, but she is entertaining and is typically in there with top-level opponents.
  • Of her 19 pro fights, 10 have gone the distance while she has five knockout wins and a submission, also losing by submission three times. She has a high output of 6.17 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.31.
  • Calderwood is extremely aggressive, always marching forward and throwing plenty of strikes. She really mixes up her strikes too with kicks, knees, elbows and long straight punches. At times, she will work right into the pocket without throwing anything and ends up getting hit hard.
  • Calderwood’s last three fights were Katlyn Chookagian (loss – unanimous decision), Andrea Lee (win – split decision) and Jennifer Maia (loss – submission).

Prediction: Joanne Calderwood (-125) via decision

Makhmud Muradov vs Andrew Sanchez: Betting Preview & Fight Prediction

FighterOdds
Makhmud Muradov-165
Andrew Sanchez+135

A change of plans on the main card one day before the event sees Makhmud “Mach” Muradov (-165) and Andrew ”El Dirte” Sanchez (+135) move up from the prelims after Ottman Azaitar violated some rules and was cut from the UFC. Muradov carries a 13-fight winning streak into this fight, including two in the UFC. Meanwhile, Sanchez eyes two in a row after a first-round knockout win last August.


Muradov: Need to Knows
  • After a rocky start to his pro career, dropping six of his first 17 fights, Muradov has figured it out to win 13 in a row. He is part of The Money Team, which is Floyd Mayweather’s brand. 
  • Of his 24 pro wins, 16 have come by knockout, including his last performance in December 2019. He has outstanding footwork and a crisp, accurate jab that he uses to set up his heavier right hand. 
  • Not only is Mach impressive offensively, but his defense is strong as well. He only absorbs 2.57 significant strikes per minute and makes his opponents miss 64 percent of their strikes. At times, though, he can be caught admiring his work, with a quick combination coming back.
  • Muradov’s last three fights were Wendell Marques (win – knockout), Alessio Di Chirico (win – unanimous decision) and Trevor Smith (win – knockout).


Sanchez: Need to Knows
  • It has been an up-and-down road for El Dirte in the UFC, with five wins, three losses and no streak either way of more than two in a row. His knockout win last August was his first finish inside the UFC and his first overall since 2015.
  • At times, Sanchez can be goaded into a firefight, where he will swing hooks in the pocket but in doing so leaves his chin way up in the air. He does his best work on the feet when he maintains distance and works his combinations when his opponent engages with him.
  • Though his striking has improved, he is most comfortable grappling and wrestling. He’s gritty and strong, averaging 2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes, but hasn’t secured one in three of his last four fights.
  • Sanchez’s last three fights were Marc-Andre Barriault (win – unanimous decision), Marvin Vettori (loss – unanimous decision) and Wellington Turman (win – knockout).

Prediction: Makhmud Muradov (-165) via knockout

Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Ribas: Betting  Preview & Fight Prediction 

FighterOdds
Marina Rodriguez+255
Amanda Ribas -335

Looking to remain undefeated in the UFC and run her winning streak to six fights in a row is Amanda Ribas (-335). On the flip side in UFC 257 betting odds, Marina Rodriguez (+255) is searching for her first triumph since August 2019, taking a loss and a majority draw in her last two fights.


Rodriguez: Need to Knows
  • After earning a UFC contract in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series Brazil in 2018, pushing her record to a perfect 10-0, Rodriguez is 2-1-2 in the promotion since. She is primarily a striker, averaging 5.04 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.31.
  • Six of her 12 pro wins have been stoppages with five knockouts and a submission, while her lone defeat was a decision. Rodriguez has fast hands, especially her lead right straight that is crisp and accurate.
  • She’s quite aggressive, cutting off the cage effectively, but she tends to rely heavily on her right hand and she’d have more success if she threw a left jab first. A big issue for Marina in her two draws and her lone defeat was her takedown defense; she was taken to the canvas 10 times over those three fights.
  • Rodriguez’s last three fights were Tecia Torres (win – unanimous decision), Cynthia Calvillo (majority draw) and Carla Esparza (loss – split decision).


Ribas: Need to Knows
  • Ribas’ 11-fight pro career consists of two five-fight winning streaks and a knockout loss to Polyana Viana mixed right in the middle. Seven of her 10 pro wins have been stoppages, with three knockouts and four submissions.
  • She is a very well-rounded fighter, averaging 4.71 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 1.67 and making her counterparts miss 73 percent of their strike attempts. She also averages 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed at least one in each of her four UFC fights.
  • Ribas is aggressive, not giving her opponents much room to work while chipping away at them with kicks. When her opponents engage with her, she lets her hands fly or goes for a takedown. On the floor, she’s very strong and has outstanding submission skills.
  • Ribas’ last three fights were Mackenzie Dern (win – unanimous decision), Randa Markos (win – unanimous decision) and Paige VanZant (win – submission).

Prediction: Amanda Ribas (-335) via decision

UFC 257: Poirier vs McGregor 2 Best Bets

FighterOdds
Conor McGregor-315
Michael Chandler+120
Joanne Calderwood-125
Makhmud Muradov-165
Amanda Ribas-335