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McGregor vs Poirier Odds & Prediction: McGregor favored in the Trilogy

Conor McGregor (right) is favored in the McGregor vs Poirier odds

It’s not very often that an immediate rematch takes place when the previous fight ended in a stoppage, but that’s the case for Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier. With each man holding a knockout win over the other, the McGregor vs Poirier trilogy only makes sense and will take place on July 10 at UFC 264.

McGregor earned the first knockout win back in 2014, while Poirier scored his knockout victory at UFC 257 in January. Despite the most recent outcome, the McGregor vs Poirier odds have Conor as the favorite and Dustin as the underdog, which was the case in the two previous meetings.

Online sportsbook BetOnline has released McGregor vs Poirier odds for their trilogy and has McGregor listed at -125 and Poirier at +100. This means you would have to bet $125 to profit $100 on a McGregor win, while a $100 bet on a Poirier win would profit you $105.

McGregor vs Poirier Odds

FighterOpening Odds
Conor McGregor-125
Dustin Poirier+105

Odds as of April 6 at BetOnline

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New to betting on the fights and interested in the McGregor vs Poirier odds? Check out our UFC Betting Guide to help you get in the action. Also, keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier odds.

McGregor vs Poirier Odds Analysis

Looking back at McGregor’s odds throughout his career, he has been the sizable chalk in the Octagon on all but two occasions as an underdog in the cage and once in the boxing ring against Floyd Mayweather Jr. However, the -125 line in the trilogy fight with Poirier would represent his longest odds as a favorite since he’s been in the UFC.

Should McGregor still be the betting favorite?

That loss to Poirier on January 24 was an interesting one because it marked the first time that the Irishman has been knocked out in his pro MMA career. Additionally, unlike his knockout loss to Mayweather in boxing, this time McGregor was actually knocked down, rather than being saved by the ref during a flurry of Mayweather blows.

All that said, McGregor wasn’t completely swarmed by Poirier. He got some good shots in and was definitely in the fight before absorbing the fight-changing leg kicks. If he uses the loss as a learning experience, then yes, he should be the betting favorite.

Is there value on Poirier vs McGregor in the trilogy?

Of course! You can only imagine the confidence “The Diamond” gained by not only beating “Notorious” but absorbing some heavy shots and then scoring a stoppage victory. I do think, however, that you will be able to get more betting value when people start wagering on the Poirier vs McGregor odds, with the Ireland native likely getting bet up to somewhere around -180.

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McGregor vs Poirier trilogy betting preview

This is such an interesting fight to look at when you really think about these two fighters and how they’ve progressed over the last seven years since their first meeting. On one hand, McGregor has won fights in three different weight classes and held simultaneous belts in two different classes.

Meanwhile, Poirier has gone 11-2 with one no contest, winning an interim belt and beating three former champions in Eddie Alvarez, Max Holloway and McGregor. 

Will anything be different in the McGregor vs Poirier trilogy fight?

Obviously, the main question that has to be answered is what McGregor will do to work around the leg kicks. I had said for quite some time that Conor doesn’t react well to leg kicks. Notably, Dennis Siver and Eddie Alvarez had some success with it but abandoned the strike and ultimately were knocked out trying to outpunch him.

Does this mean that McGregor should work on fighting an orthodox style so his lead leg isn’t exposed to a fellow southpaw in Poirier? Or perhaps, Conor needs to blitz him as he did vs Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone.

As for Poirier, he was still hit hard in that opening round, resulting in him shooting for and succeeding in a takedown attempt. Had McGregor stuffed that shot, the fight may have gone a different way as Poirier even said that he was hurt and a few more shots would have gotten him out of there.

McGregor vs Poirier Prediction

This is a tough one to call as I do believe that McGregor has the power to put Poirier away, especially in the first round. But his wide stance is what has made him such a dangerous striker, with his ability to keep his head away from his opponents’ punches while also being able to lean on to his front foot to cover more distance with his strikes.

That said, if that leg gets chewed up again, Poirier will walk away with his hand being raised once more. Also, what did the Diamond learn when he took Notorious down? Could that be an area he uses to slow McGregor down in the first round and then take over later? Ultimately, I think Conor will have a game plan for the leg kicks and his power will be the difference-maker.

Prediction: Conor McGregor (-125) via knockout