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McGregor vs Poirier Odds & Prediction: McGregor an Underdog in Trilogy

It’s not very often that an immediate rematch takes place when the previous fight ended in a stoppage, but that’s the case for Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier. With each man holding a knockout win over the other, the McGregor vs Poirier trilogy only makes sense and will take place on July 10 at UFC 264.

McGregor earned the first knockout win back in 2014, while Poirier scored his knockout victory at UFC 257 in January. Online sportsbook Bovada has released McGregor vs Poirier odds for their trilogy and has Poirier as the slight -120 favorite with McGregor coming back as a +100 underdog. This means that a $120 wager on Dustin to win would net you $100 while a $100 bet on a Conor victory would profit you $100. 

McGregor vs Poirier Odds

FighterOpening Odds
Conor McGregor+100
Dustin Poirier-120

Odds as of July 8 at Bovada

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New to betting on the fights and interested in the McGregor vs Poirier odds? Check out our UFC Betting Guide to help you get in the action. Also, keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier odds.

Our sports betting calculator tells us that McGregor’s odds of +100 represent a 50.00 percent implied win probability while Poirier’s -120 odds have an implied win probability of 54.55 percent.

McGregor vs Poirier Odds Analysis

Looking back at McGregor’s odds throughout his career, he has been the sizable chalk in the Octagon on all but two occasions as an underdog in the cage and once in the boxing ring against Floyd Mayweather Jr. However, the +100 line in the trilogy fight with Poirier will mark the second time in four UFC fights that he is plus-money.

Should McGregor still be the betting favorite?

That loss to Poirier on January 24 was an interesting one because it marked the first time that the Irishman has been knocked out in his pro MMA career. Additionally, unlike his knockout loss to Mayweather in boxing, this time McGregor was actually knocked down, rather than being saved by the ref during a flurry of Mayweather blows.

All that said, McGregor wasn’t completely swarmed by Poirier. He got some good shots in and was definitely in the fight before absorbing the fight-changing leg kicks. If he uses the loss as a learning experience, then yes, he should be the betting favorite.

Is there value on Poirier vs McGregor in the trilogy?

Of course! You can only imagine the confidence “The Diamond” gained by not only beating “Notorious” but absorbing some heavy shots and then scoring a stoppage victory. I do think, however, that you will be able to get more betting value when people start wagering on the Poirier vs McGregor odds, with the Ireland native likely getting bet up to somewhere around -140.

See McGregor vs Poirier Odds

McGregor vs Poirier trilogy betting preview

This is such an interesting fight to look at when you really think about these two fighters and how they’ve progressed over the last seven years since their first meeting. On one hand, McGregor has won fights in three different weight classes and held simultaneous belts in two different classes.

Meanwhile, Poirier has gone 11-2 with one no contest, winning an interim belt and beating three former champions in Eddie Alvarez, Max Holloway and McGregor. 

Will anything be different in the McGregor vs Poirier trilogy fight?

Obviously, the main question that has to be answered is what McGregor will do to work around the leg kicks. I had said for quite some time that Conor doesn’t react well to leg kicks. Notably, Dennis Siver and Eddie Alvarez had some success with it but abandoned the strike and ultimately were knocked out trying to outpunch him.

Does this mean that McGregor should work on fighting an orthodox style so his lead leg isn’t exposed to a fellow southpaw in Poirier? Or perhaps, Conor needs to blitz him as he did vs Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone.

As for Poirier, he was still hit hard in that opening round, resulting in him shooting for and succeeding in a takedown attempt. Had McGregor stuffed that shot, the fight may have gone a different way as Poirier even said that he was hurt and a few more shots would have gotten him out of there.

McGregor vs Poirier Prediction

This is a tough one to call as I do believe that McGregor has the power to put Poirier away, especially in the first round. But his wide stance is what has made him such a dangerous striker, with his ability to keep his head away from his opponents’ punches while also being able to lean on to his front foot to cover more distance with his strikes.

That said, if that leg gets chewed up again, Poirier will walk away with his hand being raised once more. Also, what did the Diamond learn when he took Notorious down? Could that be an area he uses to slow McGregor down in the first round and then take over later? Ultimately, I think Conor will have a game plan for the leg kicks and his power will be the difference-maker.

Prediction: Conor McGregor (+100) via knockout

McGregor vs Poirier 3 Prop Odds

With this trilogy fight being so tough to predict, perhaps a McGregor vs Poirier prop bet might be right up your alley. Online sportsbooks Bovada and BetOnline have released props for this event from the press conference on Thursday right into the fight Saturday night.

I have two prop bets I like – one for the fight itself and one for the press conference – that I will outline.

The fight prop I like is for the fight to end in UNDER 1.5 rounds at +145. For starters, the odds are intriguing, and secondly, I think both men are going to have a lot of confidence, specifically Poirier, who may think he can handle McGregor’s left after surviving it in January – could be a dangerous decision.

For the UFC 264 press conference prop that the first curse word by Conor McGregor will be an F-bomb at -150, why the f*** not? It’s a fun prop and we’ve heard the word uttered by “Notorious” plenty of times in the past, so why not have some fun and play it.

Method of Victory
OutcomeOdds
Conor McGregor inside the distance+120
Conor McGregor by decision+650
Dustin Poirier inside the distance+125
Dustin Poirier by decision+550
Draw +5500

Odds as of July 8 at Bovada

Method of Victory
OutcomeOdds
McGregor by KO/TKO/DQ+130
McGregor by submission+2200
McGregor by decision +650
Poirier by KO/TKO/DQ+165
Poirier by submission+600
Poirier by decision+550
Draw+5500

Odds as of July 8 at Bovada

Round Betting
OutcomeOdds
McGregor in Round 1+350
McGregor in Round 2+600
McGregor in Round 3+1200
McGregor in Round 4+1800
McGregor in Round 5+2500
McGregor by decision+650
Poirier in Round 1+550
Poirier in Round 2+600
Poirier in Round 3+850
Poirier in Round 4+1200
Poirier in Round 5+2000
Poirier by decision+550
Draw+5500

Odds as of July 8 at Bovada

Total Rounds
OutcomeOdds
OVER 1.5 Rounds-185
UNDER 1.5 Rounds+145
OVER 2.5 Rounds +110
UNDER 2.5 Rounds-140
OVER 3.5 Rounds+170
UNDER 3.5 Rounds-225
OVER 4.5 Rounds+230
UNDER 4.5 Rounds -325

Odds as of July 8 at Bovada

First Curse Word by McGregor - Press Conference
OutcomeOdds
F-bomb-150
B***H+200
Ass+250
S**T+425

Odds as of July 8 at BetOnline

Will McGregor be chewing Gum - Press Conference
OutcomeOdds
No-300
Yes+200

Odds as of July 8 at BetOnline

Will Either Fighter Predict a knockout - Press Conference
OutcomeOdds
Yes-250
No+170

Odds as of July 8 at BetOnline

Will Either Fighter throw something - Press Conference
OutcomeOdds
No-2000
Yes+700

Odds as of July 8 at BetOnline

Will the fighters have to be separated - Press Conference
OutcomeOdds
No-600
Yes+350

Odds as of July 8 at BetOnline

Will someone be arrested - Press Conference
OutcomeOdds
Yes+1000

Odds as of July 8 at BetOnline